Top 10 Rookies for 2008

It's hard to imagine saying "the Red Sox are better off without Schilling", but those words may ring truer than ever right now. With Schilling's shoulder apparently a very serious issue, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that Clay Buccholz will now enter the season in the starting rotation. Even before the "Schilling shoulder saga", the Red Sox were toying with the idea of a 6-man rotation for this season. You have to have a pretty compelling reason to even consider that, and the compelling reason is a kid named Clay. Here we go. Buchholz compiled a 7-2 record with a 1.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 116 K's in 86 innings at AA Portland before going 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 55 K's in 38 innings at AAA Pawtucket. That's a combined total of 8-5, 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 171 K's in 125 innings pitched. That's Gallardo and Lincecum-like who I told anyone who listened that they would be forces to be reckoned with the 2nd half of last year (and to ignore Homer Bailey for at least another year). K-rate ladies and gentlemen, K-rate. When you see young pitchers mowing down the opposition with good control even at the AA level, chances are they are the real deal. Did I mention that Buchholz beat the Angels in his major league debut, got sent back down to the minors for 2 weeks and then came back to pitch a 9 inning NO HIT shut-out of the Orioles in only his second major league start? Are you kidding me? The Red Sox only let him pitch in 2 more games before shutting him down due to what they coined as normal arm fatigue for a young pitcher. If that is really the case, then Buccholz could very well be the most valuable name on this list and run away with AL rookie of the year honors. Well, that would maybe be the case if it wasn't for the next name on this list...

Let's let the numbers do the talking. Joba was 21 years old last year. In A ball Joba went 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 51 K's in 40 IP. At AA ball he went 4-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and 66 K's in 40.1 IP. At AAA ball he went 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA 0.75 WHIP and 18 K's in 8 IP. Moved to the bullpen once the Yankees called him up, he went 2-0-1(S) with a 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 34 K's in 24 IP. Gulp. That's a combined record of 11-2-1, an ERA of just over 2.00, a WHIP under 1.00 and 169 K's in 112.1 IP at 4 pro levels. The Yankees are going to be VERY careful with Chamberlain. Girardi's recent track record with young pitchers (Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez) is shaky and Brian Cashman has said that there "will be a strict plan in place for Joba this year." The feeling is that he will begin the year in a set-up role and then be transitioned into the rotation sometime in May or June. Whatever the case, "Joba Rules!" grab him while you can. If you hear through spring training that Joba is going to be moved into the rotation right away, he moves ahead of Buccholz and may be the most dominant rookie pitcher we've seen in years.

There are several unbelievable talents that will be rookies this year. Many of them project to have a higher long-term ceiling than Ellsbury. BUT, I believe before we close the books on 2008, it's possible that he will provide the most help for fantasy baseball owners this year. Let's go over his 2007 numbers; in 73 at-bats in AA for Portland Jacoby went 0 HR, 13 RBI, 8 SB (1 CS), and hit for a .452 average. In 363 at-bats for Pawtucket at AAA he went 2 HR, 28 RBI, 33 SB (6 CS) and hit .298. For the Bosox in 116 at-bats he compiled a line of 3 HR, 18 RBI, 9 SB (0 CS) and a .353 average. Let's see if we can add properly, that's 50 stolen bases in a season at the age of 23 in the upper minors including going a perfect 9 for 9 for the Red Sox in the bigs. This isn't a one-shot deal either. In fewer than 450 at-bats Ellsbury stole 41 bags in A and AA ball in 2006. Ranking Ellsbury this high is influenced by the fact that I believe that he will lock up the starting CF job (did I mention that he plays terrific defense) and that the Bosox will try to move Coco Crisp out of town. If Coco is still around he will cut into Jacoby's at-bats against lefties immediately and could take away at-bats against righties if he slumps early. The bottom line is this, only 6 players in all of baseball stole 50 or more bases last year, with 450+ at-bats Ellsbury can challenge that this year. Wait to see what happens in spring training and as long as he gets the starting job, even if he's hitting 9th, don't be afraid to grab him a little early, especially if you are lacking speed.

The first thing you must realize is that even though Fukudome (do you think the Wrigley fans in the bleachers aren't going to love this guy with a name like FUK-U-DO-ME) is a rookie, he's already a 30 year-old professional ball player with 9 years of pro ball experience in Japan. Kosuke is coming off an elbow injury (he had bone chips removed), but the Cubs obviously think he has recovered well considering they are going to pay him $48 million over the next 4 years. His numbers the past 3 seasons playing for the Chunichi Dragons speak for themselves. 2007 in 81 games his stat-line looked like: 13 HR, 48 RBI, 5 SB, .294 AVG, .443 OBP with a 69-66 walk-to-K-rate. In 2006 he was the Japanese league MVP going 31-104-11-.351-.438 with a 76-94 BB/K-rate in 130 games. In 2005 he went 28-103-13-.328-.430 with a 93-128 BB/K-rate in 142 games. The good news is that he knows how to hit and he knows how to get on base. His OBP and BB/K-rate are very solid. Scouts project him as a #2 hitter who won't reach the power numbers he put up in Japan, but has better than average speed and could steal 15 plus bases if given the opportunity to run. Look to see where the Cubs have him penciled in the line-up and draft accordingly. A "rookie" with potential 18 HR, 85 RBI, 100 R, 15 SB, .295 AVG is a very nice commodity to have. If Fukudome gets comfy early, you can potentially expect a spike in those numbers.

You heard it here first, the Tampa Bay Devils with be a consistent winner for years to come starting in 2009 and beyond. The young talent the Rays have is quite incredible. They will the Milwaukee Brewers of the AL shortly. Milwaukee, not too long ago was the laughing stock of the NL league and is now a winning team that has a legit chance to win the NL central with first, second and third year players like Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Villanueva. The question for 2008 is this; can Evan Longoria be the Ryan Braun of 2008? The quick answer is no, but there is a ray of hope. In 2007 in 381 at-bats at AA as a 21 year-old, Longoria put up a solid 21 HR, 76 RBI, 78 R, .307 AVG line and a 5-19-19-.269 line in 104 at-bats at AAA. 26 HR, 95 RBI, 97 R and a .297 AVG as a 21 year-old in the high minors is impressive stuff. Braun as a 22 year-old in 2006 had a stat-line of 22 HR, 77 RBI, 76 R, 26 SB, .289 playing AA and A ball. Sure, Braun has the bags, but Longoria fared better, at a younger age, in higher-class ball than Braun did. Think about that. Longoria has limited speed, but plays passable defense at 3rd base, which is something Braun didn't do and why he was held back a year and is now the starting LF in Milwaukee. There was still some question whether Longoria would be the opening day 3rd baseman for the Rays with the acquisition of Willy Aybar from the Braves, but Aybar is dealing with some pretty serious legal issues in his native Dominican Republic right now. Longoria's average may lag behind the first few months of his major league career, but if you ride the wave Longoria is a stud in the making and will be hitting bombs and driving in runs for years to come in Tampa.