Mock drafting season is just about over, so it is time to put on the adult-sized jersey and start making picks that count. This month, on behalf of FFToolbox.com, I participated in the influential FanEx Expert League draft. It took approximately three weeks to complete – people claim to have lives and work - but as far as I know, everyone made it out in one piece (though I felt like punching someone when they started hoarding tight ends as I was waiting and waiting for them to fall). Among the other participants included USA Today, Fantasy Football Index and Fantasy Sharks.

The entire draft is listed below with my overall analysis and rationale for my selections at the end of each round. Plus there are various links included to previous fantasy football articles and discussion to help add additional and detailed insight.

League: 12 teams, points per reception (PPR)
Rounds: 20
Lineup: QB – 1, RB -2, WR – 3, TE -1, K -1, Def – 1, Flex -1 (RB/WR/TE)

As I mentioned in this Fantasy Football Drafting Philosophy article, learning your league rules is step number one when it comes to developing a specific drafting strategy. Based on the requirements of starting three receivers with a chance for a fourth as a flex, my goal is to have three on the roster by the fifth or sixth round. That will also be around the time the viable options begin to dwindle. Waiting on QB and TE is also part of the plan, though I will take the top players early if the value is right. As for running back, I would love to get a top dog early, but picking 12/13 means that going WR/WR is a distinct possibility. Either way, will load up on RB depth in rounds 5-10…ok, BREAK!

Round 1
1) Chris Johnson, RB, Ten
2) Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
3) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jax
4) Ray Rice, RB, Bal
5) Frank Gore, RB, SF
6) Michael Turner, RB, Atl
7) Andre Johnson, WR, Hou
8) Steven Jackson, TB, Stl
9) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
10) Brandon Marshall, WR, Mia
11) Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind
12) Randy Moss, WR, NE - FFToolbox

1st round analysis: I anticipated taking at least one WR with one of my wraparound picks, but never thought it would be Moss. And if that situation did occur, would have also assumed it was because QBs and RBs jumped ahead of him, not four receivers, wow. I rank Moss second behind A. Johnson (actually, I do not even have Marshall or Wayne in my top-5 among wide outs). Reports have Moss rocking training camp and doing it in the last year of contract. Giddy up… Overall top five went as expected, though you can make arguments for Rice over MJD…Turner has been going behind Andre Johnson in several mocks I have done, but I am largely fine with the decision here, even in PPR. There are just not a lot of frontline backs…

13) Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pit - FFToolbox
14) Roddy White, WR, Atl
15) Miles Austin, WR, Dal
16) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car
17) Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
18) Jamaal Charles, WR, KC
19) Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
20) Cedric Benson, RB, Cin
21) Marques Colston, WR, NO
22) Greg Jennings, WR, GB
23) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
24) DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi

2nd round analysis: Since this is a PPR league, I could easily justify taking another receiver in the second, especially since Austin, Johnson and White are available. Also, this format is not ideal for a lightly used pass catcher like Mendenhall, who will also be without his starting QB for at least the first four games and his projected starting RT all year. So why did I go with the Steelers bruising back?

- he is one of the few starting RBs that essentially has the job to himself
- Even though there is more RB depth than ever because of all the RBBC situations, I did not want to wait until 36/37 to get my first RB (though I would have if Mendenhall was gone)
- Pittsburgh has stated that they intend to run more than they did during the pass-happy and non-playoff reaching 2009 season
- Oh, and he is good. Some questions for sure, but not enough to have me pass.

Call me risk-adverse if you must, but Mendenhall is in a great situation and his potential for major yards and scores on the ground outweighs the downside…and look at the backs that came after him. Williams is a stud, but so is his timeshare partner Jonathan Stewart. With Thomas Jones looming large in KC, I have Charles lower on my draft board. Mathews is a better value in the back half of round two than the top…give me Calvin J, Austin and Jennings (personal preference on the latter) over White and Colston…Rodgers is my top QB this year as well…

25) Steve Smith, WR, NYG
26) Anquan Boldin, WR, Bal
27) Drew Brees, QB, NO
28) Peyton Manning, QB, Ind
29) LeSean McCoy, RB, Phi
30) Steve Smith, WR, Car
31) Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
32) Ryan Grant, RB, GB
33) Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - FFToolbox
34) Wes Welker, WR, NE
35) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den
36) Beanie Wells, RB, Ari

3rd round analysis – The Panthers Steve Smith was the last of the elite receivers I was targeting, so my attention turned towards the various RB2 options. Three names were on my "get him" list and two of them were snatched up at 31-32, so it was time to be bold. In order to secure the best back left in Thomas, I dealt my 9th round pick (108 overall) for an 11th (125) so I could move up three spots in the third. Talent is not the question with Thomas, just touches, and I am expecting an increased number of them for him this year (the pick was actually made before potential goal line vulture Lydell Hamilton went down with a season-ending injury)…even though you and I literally caught as many passes as Greene did last year I love his potential even in this format (and no, not worried about the hovering LaDainian Tomlinson, a.k.a. LT2)…not getting the love for McCoy. Yes, he plays in a high-scoring offense and its job to lose. However he did little with his opportunities a year ago when Brian Westbrook went down. The Eagles brought in Mike Bell to be the goal line option. Oh, and Andy Reid likes running as much as he likes shaving his mustache.

37) Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - FFToolbox
38) Reggie Bush, RB, NO
39) Tony Romo, QB, Dal
40) Matt Forte, RB, Chi
41) Dallas Clark, TE, Ind
42) Matt Schaub, QB, Hou
43) Tom Brady, QB, NE
44) Philip Rivers, QB, SD
45) Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia
46) Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
47) Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
48) Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cin

4th round analysis – The debate at 37 was to get one of the remaining high-end receivers or grab a star QB. Either way there was no logical reason to expect that level of player to be available when I pick in the fifth, but the difference for me was the depth at QB. If I do not get a top-7 QB, then I am likely to wait 2-3 rounds – at least – before selecting one. On the flip side, my board shows a significant receiver drop off coming up quicker than Chris Johnson turning the corner at the line of scrimmage. Receiver it is…No issue with any of the receivers picked in this round, but I like Crabtree ripping through the weak NFC West secondaries…Would like Rivers even more if the Charges offense was not dealing with multiple holdouts, but the mouthy QB backs up his talk with big numbers on the field. He makes his wide receivers, not the other way around.

49) Antonio Gates, TE, SD
50) Vernon Davis, TE, SF
51) Jahvid Best, RB, Det
52) Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
53) Jason Witten, TE, Dal
54) Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jax
55) Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
56) Sidney Rice, WR, Min
57) Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
58) C.J. Spiller, RB, Buf
59) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car - FFToolbox
60) Brent Celek, TE, Phi

5th round analysis: In mock draft after mock draft this year, the fifth round has been the home to the tight end run, so no surprises that five went here. While I have Clark at the top, especially in PPR, I cannot argue against someone taking any of the top-5, with Celek and Tony Gonzalez not far behind. If I can work up the nerve to take a guy who has only a handful of starts compared to vets like the aforementioned Clark, Gates and Witten, then Finley is the guy I want and will take…Sims-Walker was one of my correct calls last year, but now he will face the opposition's best corner each week. I like the talent, but will tread lightly…as you can see I moved up one whole spot, swapping picks in the 5th and 6th. Yes, I was working the phones (ok, really just email) to secure even the minutest advantage, but getting a stud like Stewart at this point is hardly trivial. To be fair, "Daily Show" had yet to resume practicing (heel) when I selected him, but he missed much of the previous preseason and still rocked for 1,100 yards and 10 scores when it mattered. The injury does not look like a long-term issue and since I rank him closer, if not inside the top-15 among backs, you know I loved getting him as the 25th RB off the board. Only downside is I missed out on Celek, but as you will see, I did not have a problem waiting on tight end this draft.

61) Hines Ward, WR, Pit
62) Percy Harvin, WR, Min - FFToolbox
63) Clinton Portis, RB, Was
64) Mike Wallace, WR, Pit
65) Jay Cutler, QB, Chi
66) Terrell Owens, WR, Cin
67) Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl
68) Thomas Jones, RB, KC
69) Justin Forsett, RB, Sea
70) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Phi
71) Johnny Knox, WR, Chi
72) Marion Barber, RB, Dal

6th round analysis: The trade up also caused me to miss out on Ward, but I like Harvin. That pick took place while he was out with the migraine, but before Sidney Rice had surgery. Both of those factors were obviously considered (Favre having not signed yet was not), but the guy is a stud and the potential of Rice missing time was enough to take the "risk", especially with the receiver pool thinning. Fine taking the chance on him as my WR3, but not if my two…Very high on Wallace, who was the receiver runner up to Harvin. Maclin is another WR I like around here as well…On the flip side, even though I am still sans QB and TE, neither Cutler nor Gonzalez was on my radar. I'm just not buying Cutler's decision-making even with the help from new OC Mike Martz. The waning interest in Gonzo comes from him coming off a career-low 10.4 ypc and my lack of fantasy confidence in Matt Ryan.

73) Felix Jones, RB, Dal
74) Santana Moss, WR, Was
75) Darren McFadden, RB, Oak
76) Donald Driver, WR, GB
77) Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
78) Robert Meachem, WR, NO
79) Michael Bush, RB, Oak
80) Fred Jackson, RB, Buf
81) Dez Bryant, WR, Dal
82) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Sea
83) Eli Manning, QB, NYG
84) Kevin Kolb, QB, Phi - FFToolbox

7th round analysis: With three RB and WR on the roster already, I was fine with going with Kolb, who is both overhyped and possibly undervalued at the same time. I still plan to pair him with a solid rotational QB in the next few rounds. Not totally ready to go all-in on a kid based off of two starts, but he sure looks good…Barber and Jones went back-to-back to the same team, interesting strategy. I've stated elsewhere in a "bold prediction" segment that Barber will lead all NFC East backs in fantasy points so I'm down with him. Less so on Jones, but if you missed out on RB earlier, he is the kind of upside play you want…Both Raiders backs are on my RB3/4 radar. Bush gets the nod between the two, but something tells me DMac will remind folks why he was highly touted prospect not long ago. The power of Jason Campbell – or more to the point, no JaMarcus Russell - works wonders…

85) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG - FFToolbox
86) Jerome Harrison, RB, Cle
87) Heath Miller, TE, Pit
88) Carson Palmer, QB. Cin
89) Santonio Holmes, WR, Pit
90) Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
91) Pierre Garcon, WR, Ind
92) Derrick Mason, WR, Bal
93) Chris Cooley, TE, Was
94) Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
95) Ricky Williams, RB, Mia
96) Steve Breaston, WR, Ari

8th round analysis: Yes, I took Bradshaw over Jacobs and the trend is now going that way. The Giants will be in fewer shootouts this season, so they will run plenty, meaning both backs will get theirs. I just see no reason to believe Jacobs will live up to the hype his name conjures up, but Bradshaw will make the explosive plays out of this backfield…Cooley is looking strong in preseason, no lingering injury here…QB's can make the receiver more than the other way around, as we saw last year with Peyton Manning throwing successfully to unknowns Garcon and Austin Collie. Look for something similar with the Rivers-Floyd combo in SD this year…

97) Carnell Williams, RB, TB
98) Zach Miller, TE, Oak
99) Arian Foster, RB, Hou
100) Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
101) Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
102) Ben Tate, RB, Hou
103) Devin Aromashhodu, WR, Chi
104) Tim Hightower, RB, Ari
105) Kellen Winslow, TE, TB
106) Jabar Gaffney, WR, Den
107) Brett Favre, QB, Min
108) Matt Ryan, QB, Atl

9th round analysis: No pick in this round as a result of dealing up for Pierre Thomas in the third…One owner is hoarding tight ends and now with Cooley, Daniels, Miller and Winslow off the board, I am likely to wait a loooong time before I take one…Foster is now going a couple of rounds higher with Tate out for the season…of the Jets trio of receivers, go Holmes if you need upside, Cotchery if you want a steady option and Edwards if you want to throw your remote control repeatedly when he drops pass after pass…Touchdown Tim Hightower went 68 picks after Wells. That's the kind of value a guy can fall in love with…This is earlier than I've seen Gaffney go, but he is a sleeper fav of mine, especially a round or two later.

109) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit - FFToolbox
110) Austin Collie, WR, Ind
111) Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi
112) Kenny Britt, WR, Ten
113) Devin Hester, WR, Chi
114) Joe Flacco, QB, Bal
115) Golden Tate, WR, Sea
116) Willis McGahee, RB, Bal
117) LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
118) John Carlson, TE, Sea
119) Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Min
120) Steve Slaton, RB, Hou

10th round analysis: All things being equal I would take Flacco over Big Ben and be fine with him as my starter, However, he has the same Week 8 bye as Kolb and since I am not confident I will be able to make a deal during the season in this league , I went with the Steelers QB. To be clear, in one of my "friends" leagues, I would not have let that stop me from taking Flacco, but both passers are very good value this late…We are clearly now in the pick and hope part of the receiver options. Even though his QB is more runner than thrower, I'd take Britt enormous talent over the others picked here…Was hoping Carlson would make it to me in the 11th. Oh well, the TE wait continues…

121) Chester Taylor, RB, Chi
122) Nate Burleson, WR, Det
123) Matthew Stafford, QB, Det
124) Eddie Royal, WR, Den
125) Donald Brown, RB, Ind- FFToolbox
126) Darren Sproles, RB, SD
127) Laurence Maroney, RB, NE
128) Lee Evans, WR, Buf
129) Laurent Robinson, WR, Stl
130) Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cle
131) Montario Hardesty, RB, Cle
132) Julian Edelman, WR, NE - FFToolbox

11th round analysis: Brown was one of my biggest swing and misses last season, but the Colts situation has not really changed as Addai remains an uninspiring play. If he can stay healthy this year and Addai doesn't (and he suffered a concussion in the Colts third preseason game), Brown could be a RB2 play at points. I like that potential at this point in the draft…With my own pick, I added some much needed receiver depth. Edelman has already shown he can be a Wes Welker clone, which is ideal in PPR. The Pats need to figure how to get both of them on the field together and I think they will…I would love to believe in Maroney, but three years of pain and misery have given me a negative Pavlovian-type reaction when I hear that name. The horror…

133) Chris Chambers, WR, KC
134) Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
135) Larry Johnson, RB, Was
136) Mike Williams, WR, TB
137) Vince Young, QB, Ten
138) Roy Williams, WR, Dal
139) Jacoby Jones, WR, Hou
140) Tashard Choice, RB, Dal - FFToolbox
141) NYJ Defense
142) Lance Moore, WR, NO
143) Kevin Smith, RB, Det
144) Alex Smith, QB, SF

12th round analysis: Keller was next on the TE hit parade, but he was gone before I could take him. Instead I added to my RB depth with Choice, who will go from being the Cowboys third string to their best all-around fantasy option when inevitably one of the two injury-prone players ahead of him goes down…Williams is getting crazy preseason love. He has first round NFL talent, but dropped to the fourth due to off-the-field matters. Best thing for now is Bucs will be losing majority of time, so garbage points galore…The first defense is off the board. Jets are clearly good, but I'll wait a bit.

145) Chad Henne, QB, Mia
146) Green Bay Defense
147) Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
148) Jordan Shipley, WR, Cin
149) Legedu Naanee, WR, SD
150) Brian Westbrook, RB, SF
151) Leon Washington, RB, Sea
152) Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
153) Toby Gerhart, RB, Min
154) Bernard Scott, RB, Cin
155) Correll Buckhalter, RB, Den
156) Greg Olsen, TE, Chi - FFToolbox

13th round analysis: Relying on a Mike Martz system tight end works as well historically as having Vinny Cerrato run your front office. However, Olsen is crazy talented and the Bears appear to be trying to get him involved. A risk, sure, but taking it on a highly skilled player is one I am willing to take. For the record, would have taken him and others over Shockey…Very, very high on Henne even though he falls to the back-end of the QB2 run…Scott may be the number one pure RB fantasy handcuff option this year

157) Philadelphia Defense - FFToolbox
158) Nate Washington, WR, Ten
159) Javon Ringer, RB, Ten
160) Chaz Schillens, WR, Oak
161) Minnesota Defense
162) Demaryius Thomas, WR, Den
163) Derrick Ward, RB, TB
164) Matt Moore, QB, Car
165) Matt Leinart, QB, Ari
166) Kyle Orton, QB, Den
167) Josh Freeman, QB, TB
168) Matt Cassel, QB, KC

14th round analysis: By the team I pick again the top-8 or so defenses will be gone and since I do not have a pressing need, time to take one. There is some concern about how the Eagles will do in the post-Jim Johnson era, but their aggressive style remains…Of these deeper QB options, I would lean towards taking risks on Cassel or Freeman as pure backups, but Orton makes for the best bet if you need a low-end rotational option.

This recap is right now longer than Antonio Bryan's stay with the Bengals, so if you want to see the remaining six rounds or the entire draft laid out, click here. Here are my final picks along with another drafted player I like in each round…

15th – Mike Thomas, WR, Jax; Bernard Berrian, WR, Min
16th – Tony Scheffler, TE, Det; Dallas Defense
17th – James Jones, WR, GB; Kareem Huggins, RB, TB
18th – Mike Bell, RB, Phi;
19th – Michael Vick, QB, Phi; Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
20th – Shayne Graham, K, Bal; Keiland Williams, RB, Was

It is officially depth and flyer time and the Jags second receiver covers both categories. The 5-9 Thomas is a speedster who should see a lot of single coverage opposite Sims-Walker…Scheffler was rescued from Josh McDaniels and sent to the Lions, so expect something closer to his 2008 stats when he hauled in 16.1 yards over 40 receptions…Donald Driver has lingering knee issues and if he goes down, Jones comes in. That means having a starting WR in the Packers juggernaut of an offense. He should get 4-5 scores regardless…If you listened to the FFToolbox podcast last week you heard me talk up Bell as a sleeper behind LeSean McCoy. At a minimum he will tote the ball at the goal line. If McCoy struggles like he did a year ago, Bell could split the carries and then, who knows…With Roethlisberger out the first four weeks at least and nothing but the likes of Trent Edwards available, I added Vick as insurance behind Kolb…Graham was one of the last kickers selected, but he is in a great spot. Shows why there is no reason to rush on this position…

Final Depth Chart (projected starts in bold/italics)

QB: Kolb, Roethlisberger, Vick
RB: Mendenhall, P. Thomas Bradshaw, D. Brown, Choice, M. Bell
WR: R. Moss, Crabtree, Harvin, Edelman, M. Thomas, J. Jones
TE: Olsen Scheffler
FL: Stewart (RB)
DF: Philadelphia
K: Graham

The running backs are the strength of this team and could be down unstoppable if the Saints give Thomas a heavier workload and Stewart ends up being the Panthers singular running game weapon…Receiver depth is questionable, but all three are the kind of upside plays I like. Moss will be a beast this year and the young duo of Crabtree and Harvin are on the cusp of cracking the group of elite playmakers in the league…QB is solid and potentially stellar, while TE is a work in progress, but the two players in the roster have done it before. Overall, I'm feeling good. Let's get it on!

This week's podcast, which focused on the commonly used Week 10 fantasy trade deadline and the best/worst player and team matchups in the pivotal weeks 14-16, was so chock full of info that it ran well beyond regulation time. While I assume (sorry, clearing my throat) everyone will listen to the show in its entirety via ITunes, I decided to provide a cliff notes version of the episode. The take below is largely my own, but you can hear additional insight from FFToolbox.com writers Rob Warner and Chris Weeks on the podcast.

Since the trade deadline clock is ticking, let's not waste time on me writing some detailed, pithy intro, especially since I have not yet had my morning coffee. That is not a good scene for anyone involved...In general, please note that we are not focusing on weekly studs like Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Randy Moss, but instead on those mix and match options or even some players that have been solid, but face a daunting schedule in the final weeks. While matchups cannot dictate exactly how you set your lineup, they can help determine which side of the fence you land on a certain player and these notes should provide a look forward into some of the more promising or challenging decisions that lie ahead for fantasy owners. How one handles their trade deadline planning could make the difference between that light at the end of the fantasy tunnel being the shine coming off your soon-to-be won trophy or the fast moving train running straight at your squad.

Best Team schedules: Cardinals, Bengals, Seahawks - No team has a better across the board schedule the rest of the way then the Cardinals, who have a top-5 schedule at QB, RB, WR, TE, K and defense according to the FFToolbox Strength of Schedule guide, my favorite tool on the site by the way. Obviously Larry Fitzgerald is a must have, but virtually all of their starters (outside of TE Ben Patrick) are worth acquiring and starting most weeks.

Worst Team schedules: Eagles, Bucs, Giants - The trusty strength of schedule meter has the Giants RB and WR schedules ranked 31st the rest of the way with Eli Manning's SOS coming in at 27th among quarterbacks. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants clearly have talented players on offense and I expect Tom Coughlin to get them back on the right track in terms of NFL wins and losses. However, fantasy expectations should be tamped down based on their schedule and with a certain amount of uncertainty going forward. Don't do anything drastic, but considering dealing your Giants starters or start looking for more promising trade options. Now.

Quarterback

Good: Kurt Warner - Ok, raise your hand if you thought this former league MVP would still be upright by Week 10...put your hand down Brenda. I am talking to the non-believers, the ones who saw a 38-year old with a history of injuries and questioned whether they should get target Warner in their fantasy draft and hope for a repeat of his inspired 2008 season. Though Warner has not performed at a Pro Bowl level, he has been a solid, low-end QB1 play, ranking 11th in PPG average among QB's. But that was then; the future, one that for now does not involve a walker, looks quite promising for the Cards QB. The schedule highlights: Week 15, at the Lions, who are currently 31st against the pass and have allowed the second most TD passes. That is followed by the Rams, Warner's former team, who sit currently 22nd against the pass. Oh, Warner owners, one last thing. Warner's present health not withstanding, do not forget to add Matt Leinart as a handcuff down the stretch. (This goes for virtually any of your stud players as having the backup will let you sleep better at night in a post-trade deadline world)

Other passers: Week nine struggles aside, Joe Flacco remains a rotational fantasy option with QB1 potential (Week 14 - LIons; Week 16 - Bears) in the right matchups...Already worthy of a roster spot, now Alex Smith is making a claim to be a strong QB2 or spot starter. Not many passers will have a better stretch of games (Week 13 - @ Seahawks; Week 14 - Cardinals, 29th vs. the pass; Week 16 - Lions) with which to close out the season...Purely for Golden Domer lovers and those scared to death to have only Jake Delhomme or Trent Edwards as their backup QB; Brady Quinn faces the Chiefs on the road in Week 15 and hosts the Raiders in Week 16. Yes, take that final recommendation with a dumpster sized grain of salt amount.

Bad: Matt Ryan - Of the preseason top 10-12 QB's, the one that passer that currently is not sniffing that tier now is Ryan, the Falcons wunderkind second-year star. We can debate Ryan's real life value to the Falcons franchise in another forum, but fantasy owners have not been pleased of late. Over his last four starts, Ryan has thrown for less than 200 yards three times while totaling six TDP and eight INT in that overall stretch. That is too large of a sampling too simply dismiss as a minor blip and gives legit concern to his fantasy owners, who will therefore be none to pleased with the reigning Rookie of the Year's closing schedule; during week's 13-16, the Falcons play the Eagles, Saints, @ Jets, Bills, all of whom currently sit among the top half of NFL defenses against the pass. (But Ben, three of those games are at home. Surely that has to be good news for Matty Ice, right?). Ryan has thrown eight of his 13 touchdowns in his four home games, but is averaging 61 yards less per game (192) than generated in his four starts away from the Georgia Dome.

Other passers: Several big name passers (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo) have among the worst statistical matchups the rest of the way, but should remain entrenched in your lineup. On the other hand, Kyle Orton's early season fantasy success is unlikely to be duplicated down the stretch with three top-13 pass defenses (@ Colts, Raiders, @ Eagles) to face in Weeks 14-16.

Running Back

Good: Pierre Thomas - The Saints backfield has been a confounding and confusing scenario for fantasy owners this year, with the emergence of Mike Bell and the almost shunning of Reggie Bush. Also Pierre Thomas mostly failed to live up to his early draft status due to early injuries and the surprising play of Bell, but appears to have re-taken over the reins as the top dog with 181 total yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks (In comparison, Bell had only five carries for 17 yards last week). Not only do I expect that trend to continue, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints lead runner the rest of the way; two games vs. the Bucs 30th ranked run defense, including in the climatic Week 16, plus matchups with the Rams (27th) and Falcons (24th). As my colleague Rob Warner stated on the podcast, Thomas may be the one attainable RB1/2 option out there because of the first half uncertainty, but the schedule and that Saints offense make with him pursuing.

Other runners: The return of Sammy Morris is the "x" factor in the Patriots backfield, but Laurence Maroney has been a solid producer since getting the bulk of the touches of late. Now check out the teams he will be running against in weeks 14-16; Panthers (23rd), @ Bills (32nd), Jaguars (22nd). The quantity of carries likely keeps Maroney out of becoming a true RB2 each week, but the lack of quality opponents in the closing games should more than make up for it.

Bad: Ryan Grant - Solid, not spectacular is a perfect way to describe Grant's 2009 season. In eight games, Grant has failed to reach double digit scoring only once in standard scoring leagues, but only scored over 15 points once this season with five games in the 10-12 point range. Considering there is no real threat in the wings to steal carries, Grant may be able to continue squeeze out similar numbers, but the odds are stacked against him from providing fantasy owners with anything more based on the Packers closing schedule. Over weeks 11-16, Grant faces the Niners (Week 11, 4th ranked rush defense), Ravens (Week 13, 7th), Steelers (Week 15, 1st) and Seahawks (Week 16, 11th). Even the two promising weeks (Week 12 @ Lions, Week 14 @ Bears) are on the road against division foes. Considering the Week 15 matchup against the frightening Steel Curtain defense makes Grant almost unusable, it makes sense to troll the Packers starting RB out in trade talks to see if you can snag a comparable RB with a much, much better schedule.

Other runners: DeAngelo Williams dominated the second half of the 2008 fantasy season and has been on fire over the last few weeks, making him virtually schedule proof. The same however cannot be said for his tag-team partner Jonathan Stewart, who is looking no better than a spot-flex play with the Panthers playing @ Jets (Week 12), @ Pats (14), Vikings (15) and @ Giants (16) to close the season.

Wide Receiver

Good: Kevin Walter - There is little to tout about Walter's first half, but his targets likely will rise with the absence of TE Owen Daniels. Those extra targets should be put to good use in Weeks 13-16 with games at the Jaguars (21st against the pass), Seahawks (17th), Rams (20th) and Dolphins (29th). That schedule also makes Texans third receiver and likely free agent Jacoby Jones worth a look in deeper leagues.

Other catchers: It has been easier to predict what will happen on "Lost" than figure out which Saints wide receiver other than Marques Colston is the one to use each week. The wealth will likely continued to be spread, but Robert Meachem may be on the verge of become a more viable WR3 weekly option with seven receptions for 145 yards and a score over the last two weeks. The burner is posting a sizzling 22.8 yards per grab and that could mean a big pay day with closing games against the Rams (Week 11, 20th against the pass), Bucs (Weeks 12 and 16 against a unit that has allowed the third most TDP) and Falcons (28th).

Bad: Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: Bad enough the Giants enter their bye week on a four-game losing streak, but their struggling aerial attack faces a who's who of top pass defenses the rest of the way. In Weeks 12-16, the Giants are @ Broncos (8th against the pass), Cowboys, Eagles (14th), @ Redskins (1st) and @ Panthers (6th). Smith should catch enough passes to remain more than viable in PPR leagues, but expect decreased yardage and touchdown numbers across the board.

Other catchers: Already talked about why Matt Ryan could struggle the rest of the way and obviously that effects his star receiver Roddy White, who has been more "blah" then "yea!" most weeks this season. When you look inside White's 40-570-6 numbers through eight games, one notes that most of production (318 yards, three TDs) came in only two games. White did not generate more than 57 yards and the other six games. Playing against those top passing defenses during fantasy crunch time does not seem like a cure-all.

Tight End

Good: Vernon Davis - Who would have guessed that the insertion of Alex Smith into the Niners lineup would actually be a good thing for their passing game. Huh. One person might have been Davis, who clearly has great chemistry with Smith, having racked up four touchdowns over 10 quarters since the Niners made the QB change and he hauled in 10 passes for 102 yards last week alone. Among tight ends, Davis has a top-5 schedule going forward, with tasty games against the Jags (Week 12), @ Seahawks (13), Cardinals (14), @ Eagles (15) and Lions (16) so there is no reason to think the former Maryland Terrapin's production will slow down anytime soon.

Bad: Kellen Winslow - The simple truth is that unless you drafted say Brent Celek or Heath Miller as a backup and thus have two capable tight ends on your roster, there is almost no reason to sit your fantasy starter due to the lack of free agent options available. However, one top level talent that teams should consider unloading before the trading deadline is Winslow, who faces the 31st toughest schedule among TE's the rest of the way. I know Josh Freeman just posted nice numbers in his first start, but I won't be comfortable with him throwing to any fantasy player until we see how he does on the road (starting this week at the Dolphins) and how opposing teams defense the rook now that there actual game film to study. If you can move Winslow for a comparable TE option that has a more known quantity at QB throwing him the ball like the aforementioned Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe, make the deal.

Defense:

Good: Bengals - While the real life Bengals defense has garnered attention from football pundits with the inspired play so far, the fantasy world has not quite taken note, largely to the consistent unit not truly having a breakout performance. That all could change starting in Week 11 when the Bengals play on the road at the Raiders followed by back-to-back home games against the lowly Browns and Lions. Tack on a Week 16 tilt against the Chiefs and the Bengals are a virtual one-stop fantasy defense shop going forward.

Other defenses: No defense has a better Week 15-16 schedule than the Cardinals, with a road game at the Lions followed by a home tilt against the Rams. Nuff said... For those that still have work to do before those late matchups can become relevant, consider the Dolphins. Over the next three weeks they face Josh Freeman, Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards...if you plan on going with a "defense of the week" strategy, also note the Titans (Week 14 vs. Rams, the first of three straight home games) and the Texans (Week 15 @ Rams, Week 16 vs. Chad Henne).

Bad: Panthers - Brutal early on, the Panthers defense has rebounded with solid to strong outings in three of their past four games, but now will be without star LB Thomas Davis the rest of the way due to an ACL injury. Factor in their Week 14-16 opponents (Patriots, Vikings, Giants) and the Panthers D is not likely to be long for your roster.

*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Six of the NFL season...

We'll skip the normal intro and get right into the picks, which of course are for informational purposes only. In addition, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Last week: 8-6 straight, 7-7 spread

Overall: 53-23 straight; 40-36 spread

Washington 17 Kansas City 14 (+6): The dysfunction within the Redskins family makes the Jon and Kate brood look like the Brady Bunch in comparison and it is only getting worse by the minute. Players are going after each other, management, the media and ever former Redskins heroes are taking shots. With that said, they still have more talent than the game, but rebuilding Chiefs and become the worst 3-3 team in FL history. Clinton Portis should receive enough carries to post solid yards even if at less than a four yards per carry clip, while Dwayne Bowe should make three big plays against the overrated DeAngelo Hall...

never mind...Kansas City 20 Washington 17. As my old boss at a financial services company once told me, don't catch a falling knife and the Redskins are falling. Plus LT Chris Samuels was already ruled out for the game and now may be done for the season, adding to downward spira. (if you think I am being negative on the Redskins, try living here. Fans are ready to take to the streets, torches and all)

Cincinnati 24 Houston 20 (+4.5): Houston has a problem; they cannot stop the run. Cedric Benson is licking his chops and leads the Bengals to a shocking 5-1 start, but Matt Schaub moves the ball enough to keep the game in doubt until the end. It would not be a Bengals this year otherwise.

Pittsburgh 27 (-14) Cleveland 10: Big Ben has quietly turned in a top-3 fantasy quarterback performance year to date. No reason to see that status changing in this one, especially if a Rashard Mendenhall illness has the Steelers passing even more and more. With Braylon Edwards traded and the Steelers stout run defense standing in the way of Jamal Lewis, there is not one Browns player worth starting.

Baltimore 20 (+3) Minnesota 17: Brett Favre and the Vikings have looked very good so far playing against the Browns, Lions, Niners, Packers and Rams. Now they get a real test against one of the NFL's elite and that will lead to a battered Favre and a home loss. On the other side, the versatile Ray Rice has another big day, this time as a receiver.

Jacksonville 31 (-9.5) St. Louis 17: How bad do you have to be to be a 9.5 point dog to a team that lost 41-0 the week before. Meet your 2009 Rams! Torry Holt and Mike "Party Boy" Sims-Walker get jiggy with it against what is a horrid Rams secondary, though Donnie Avery will finish with game-high receiving yardage total.

NY Giants 27 (+3) New Orleans 23: Lots of folks love the Bourbon Street boys this week and the Giants have injuries on defense and to their QB, though Eli will not miss the game in his hometown. With that said, the Giants are the best team in the NFC, if not the entire league, until further notice. Drew Brees will get back into fantasy owners good graces, though not an elite day, but look for him to attack the Giants secondary deep down the middle. There might even be a Lance Moore sighting in this one.

Carolina 24 (-3) Tampa Bay 20: As long as Steve Smith (knee) is on the field - and he is expected to play - he will torch the Bucs secondary as he did twice last year. If not, it is officially panic time for his fantasy owners (myself included). Even Jake Delhomme and Mushin Muhammad are worthy of a bye week start this week... Cadillac Williams should find running lanes against the Panthers inferior run defense and Josh Johnson showed he can move the ball for those owners in need of a last second QB.

Green Bay 34 (-13) Detroit 20: Aaron Rodgers should enjoy a rare game where he can stand in the pocket and look for Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley down the field. Calvin Johnson is looking like a game-time decision with a lean towards sitting at this point. Bryant Johnson should pick up extra targets if that happens.

Philadelphia 30 (-14) Oakland 10: I was instinctively going to take the home team getting double digit points at home, but then remembered that the Raiders were channeling their owner on the field by playing the living dead. DeSean and LeSean each find the end zone in this laugher, but the frustration for Brian Westbrook owners extends another week.

Seattle 31 (-3) Arizona 27: The Seahawks continue their turnaround season, while the Cards continue their slide back to the middle. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner will throw for three scores, but the Seahawks defense forces more turnovers to eke out the win.

NY Jets 24 (-9.5) Buffalo 13: Do not count on Rex Ryan's defense to get rolled two weeks in a row. Trent Edwards should be nervous. The weather is also looking like a factor and strong winds should keep Mark Sanchez from throwing his great deep ball to Braylon Edwards too often, but the duo finds the end zone for the second straight week. Terrell Owens will be jealous of that.

New England 34 (-9) Tennessee 20: Who did the Titans piss off to have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their schedule in back-to-back weeks. Entering the game 0-5 just makes it all the more painful and having the Golden Boy throw down field haymaker after haymaker will only make it worse. The Titans should take advantage of the Pats weakness at linebacker by getting Chris Johnson more involved in the passing game.

Atlanta 24 Chicago 23 (+3): Matt Ryan vs. Jay Cutler. Matt Forte vs. Michael Turner. These were questions fantasy owners debated throughout the preseason, making this a statement game for those that made the choice to pick one over the other. Fantasy wise, all should be probably feel about the same in this one, though Dirty Bird owners will be sticking their chest out just a bit more Monday morning.

San Diego 27 (-3.5) Denver 20: I've been a believer of the Broncos all season and last week's win over the Pats should convince the doubters, but the Bolts MUST win this division game. The Chargers do not have the power running game ideally suited to beat the Broncos, but they do have Philip Rivers and he gets it done with 250+ yards and two scores.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)