Recapping the offseason and a fantasy look ahead, AFC West
With the completion of the NFL Draft and the main portion of free agency in the books, it is time to start review the moves made and start looking ahead to the regular and fantasy seasons. Today I turn to the AFC West, looking at the best draft related move teams made, holes remaining, fantasy sleepers, players that have had a change in value and what is the top question for fantasy owners to ponder with training camp still about two months away. Catch previous posts on the NFC East and stay tuned for the NFC North...
Denver Broncos
Best Use of Draft Pick - Eric Decker:
Unlike his fellow rookie receiver Demaryius Thomas, who still needs to learn how to run NFL quality routes, Decker enters the NFL as a near fully formed receiver. Even though he was often a one-man-gang with the Golden Gophers, Decker has shown the ability to produce (in 2008 he went hauled in 84 passes, scored seven touchdowns and went for over 1,000 yards) and make both the easy and tough catches. To illustrate that last point, here is a great stat from CBSSports.com: Minnesota quarterbacks have targeted Decker for 354 passes during his career and he dropped just three in 45 games (0.085%). In other words, Braylon Edwards he is not. The 6-3 Decker slid in the draft due to a foot injury that cost him time last season and that - plus the normal rookie receiver curve - limits his 2010 fantasy value. Once healthy, he could easily become the Broncos leader in receptions for years to come.
Still in search of - Stability:
From the firing of their Super Bowl winning coach to trading away their two most productive, albeit disgruntled offensive stars, it is almost amazing the Broncos have not completely hit rock bottom over the past 12-18 months. The way the Broncos need to look at the situation is what one of my favorite characters on "Lost" says; whatever happened, happened. The Tim Tebow pick had as much to do with the notion of adding a player that won't rock the boat as much as anything. Almost regardless of record, this season will be a success if the Broncos can simply avoid another confrontational type offseason and use that to build upon going forward.
Fantasy Sleeper - Jabar Gaffney:
So Marshall is gone, now what. Eddie Royal is coming off a brutal season and while he would benefit by moving to the slot, the Broncos have yet to say if this will happen. Brandon Stokely is nothing more than solid depth and the two rookies will likely have at least some level of adjustment. That leaves the Gaffney as the Orton's likely top outside target to start the season. While the nine-year vet has never been anything close to a fantasy star, he did catch at least three passes in 10 games last season, including hauling in 14 receptions for 213 yards in the final game when Marshall was suspended. Gaffney also has a shot to get off to a quick start as the Broncos play porous secondaries (Jags, Seahawks) to start the season and will likely need to throw plenty against the Colts the following week.
Focusing on the fantasy value of - Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn:
In this context, we are talking about keeper value. For any rookie QB, I think the wise course of action is to sit them on the sideline for at least one full season and the case of Tebow, who has much in the way of adjustments to make, that should be the case regardless. I'm with those that question his style in a pro offense, but at some point the Broncos are going to give him a shot. Considering it is in his football DNA to be a runner, I think it's reasonable to assume that he could augment potential so-so passing stats with yards and scores on the ground so in deep dynasty leagues, I might roll the dice if roster space permits (though Jimmy Clausen is in the best situation of the rookie QBs). For Quinn, it is hard to judge because odds are his next legit chance at a starting gig comes on another team as Kyle Orton is the starter and Tebow the long term hope. While I was not a fan of the former Notre Dame star coming out of college, he has still only played in a grand total of 14 games in three seasons and I expect some team (Buffalo? Washington) to make a play for him, maybe as soon as this season.
Biggest Fantasy Question - Without their top playmaker, will Denver be a viable fantasy offense?
Two seasons ago the Broncos had a prolific offense directed by the offensive "genius" Mike Shanahan and staring two up-and-coming young stars in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall has followed the other two out the door - and do not forget TE Tony Scheffler was also traded - they have the unproven Josh McDaniels, the ordinary Kyle Orton and nothing resembling a Pro Bowl receiver at this moment. One piece they do have to build around is Knowshon Moreno, who had a solid all-around rookie campaign and the Broncos drafted two offensive lineman to help him improve upon his 3.8 ypc average. If Moreno can become the focal point, then Broncos will not need to rely heavily on Orton, which is a good thing as he is a more is less kind of passer. There is enough here to project their offense being fantasy competent most weeks and Moreno has a shot to be a Top-20 player at his position, but there are unlikely any other weekly fantasy stars here unless Royal finds his 2008 mojo.
Kansas City
Best Use of Draft Pick - Eric Berry:
A couple of months before the draft, it was intimated that Chiefs GM Scott Pioli did not value drafting a safety with the fifth overall pick. For the sake of the franchise, it is good that was just a smoke screen. Not only did the Chiefs need help at safety - and a playmaking one at that - but Berry will become the leader of their secondary, if not the entire defense before long. Third round pick Jon Asamoah has a chance to start right away and be a long term fixture at guard.
Still in search of - Nose Tackle:
Of course, no defensive back can survive without help from their defensive line and the Chiefs are still struggling to put together a solid front wall in their 3-4 scheme. Previous first round picks Glen Dorsey and Tyson Jackson have not yet lived up to their lofty draft slots - both were Top-5 picks - but they are still superior to the options the Chiefs are currently trotting out at nose tackle. Even though they addressed needs in the secondary, offensive line and added a hybrid RB (Dexter McCluster), they did not draft an interior defensive lineman so the search continues.
Fantasy Sleeper - Jerehme Urban:
Coach Todd Haley loved to throw keep as many as three and four receivers busy when he was the OC for the Cardinals, but was unable to do that last year due to lack of talent beyond Dwayne Bowe and midseason pick up Chris Chambers. In 2008, Haley's last season with the Cards, Urban went for 34-448-4, but his numbers declined last year due to injuries and the Cards depth at receiver. While McCluster is expected to get snaps at both receiver and running back, Urban has an opportunity to see significant playing time and become a fantasy deep league receiver option, especially playing on a team without a proven tight end and that is likely to be playing from behind often.
Focusing on the fantasy value of - Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones:
Outside of Chris Johnson, no running back was as explosive as Charles over the second half of the season so it had to be disappointing for his fantasy owners to hear that the Chiefs added Jones to the backfield mix. Yes, it likely takes away some goal line opportunities, but the addition of Jones probably allows Charles to keep his legs throughout the season instead of getting worn down with a heavy workload. Charles is clearly a Top-10 fantasy back next year, but even if Jones gets those short TD opportunities, how many of them will there be in this offense. He likely gets 10-12 touches per game, which makes him a fantasy reserve unless he turns into LenDale White circa 2008. Unlikely.
Biggest Fantasy Question - Will the real Matt Cassel please stand up?
Hey, we get it. First year on a new team and playing along side guys not named Randy Moss and Wes Welker, nobody really thought Cassel would match his 2008 production, fine. However, throwing for less than 3,000 yards and only 16 touchdowns - with the same amount of picks - is far from reasonable. Cassel did not pass for more than two touchdown passes in any game, had one or less TDP in 10 games and completed only 55 percent of his throws. The Chiefs line remains iffy, but Cassel now will have Chris Chambers for a full season plus Thomas Jones and McCluster to help out of the backfield. Nobody is saying he needs to be Tom Brady, but Cassel can't be Alex Smith either or this experiment will be over sooner than later.
Oakland Raiders
Best Use of Draft Pick - Lamaar Houston:
The real answer has to be Jason Campbell, but since the pick acquired for him is from the 2012 draft, we'll focus on the picks involved in this one. First round pick Rolando McClain fills an immediate need and he's unlikely to be a league-wide punch line, but I like the potential that comes with their young DT that they selected in round two. Houston is a phenomenal athlete for a man that stands 6-3 and tips the scale at 305. The former Longhorn will help the Raiders sorry run defense and provide a pocket collapsing presence in the middle.
Still in search of - Immediate Offensive line help:
Whether it was workout warrior Bruce Campbell or another big body, most mock drafts had the Raiders going for an offensive tackle in round one because it is believed to be their top need. Even though they drafted Campbell and fellow project Jared Veldheer, neither of these potential starters will be ready to contribute soon, which means Mario Henderson and Khalif Barnes enter training camp as the starters. At least Jason Campbell is used to running for his life.
Fantasy Sleeper - Chaz Schilens:
Bad enough that Schilens was subjected to the JaMarcus Russell era during his two NFL seasons, but the athletic wideout also missed the first half of last season with a foot injury. Now healthy and with a viable quarterback throwing him the ball, the Raiders will really get to see what they have in their 2008 7th round pick, who has shown significant potential when on the field and is built like one of those monster wide outs the Chargers start. Louis Murphy had positive moments in his rookie season, Darrius Heyward-Bey did not and both will also benefit from the change at QB, but Schillens is the one I would put my money on right now to be the top Raiders fantasy receiver this season.
Focusing on the fantasy value of - Jason Campbell:
For all the negative or at best "blah" talk surrounding Campbell, you would think he belongs in the Akili Smith or Heath Shuler bust category, but the reality is he has been solid and at times better, especially when you consider the dysfunction around him. In fact, Campbell is coming of a season with career highs in yards (3,618), touchdowns (20) and completion percentage (64.5) despite playing behind an offensive line riddled with injuries. granted, the Raiders line is not exactly, well, good, but a new lease on life (i.e. now more JaMarcus) should add some pep to their step. Nobody is saying Campbell will suddenly become a fantasy star, but his presence improves the entire offense and gives him high-end QB2 value.
Biggest Fantasy Question - Will Darren McFadden ever be more than a tease?
Every fantasy owners dreams of drafting that underachieving but dynamic talent the year he finally puts it altogether, as if the addition to the roster of "The True Mac Daddy" or "Redskins Fanatic" made the difference. Acting on these delusions of grandeur in the later rounds to draft a Laurence Maroney or Willis McGahee is one thing, but spending a third or fourth pick on a fantasy flirt like McFadden can lead to disaster. Now that he has flamed out in both his pro seasons - doesn't it seem like he has been around much longer than that? - McFadden should drop a couple of rounds in fantasy drafts. It is obvious the type of explosion he offers and Campbell helps, but the presence of his fellow RB Michael Bush - who offers more fantasy value since he will be drafted 4-6 rounds later - does not. Nobody questions DMC's highlight making ability, but since he is unlikely to ever be a workhorse back or get goal line touches, there are better, safer plays to make. Some owner will likely convince themselves that they can be McFadden's good luck charm and boldly select him sooner than his actual play has warranted. At present, the wise move is to not let that owner be you.
San Diego
Best Use of Draft Pick - Cam Thomas:
The Chargers said goodbye to their stud nose tackle Jamal Williams this offseason and while he remains a bull in the middle of a 3-4 front line, the soon-to-be 34-year old missed most of last season due to injuries. For now they will go with some stopgap types, but the long term answer is the massive Thomas, who thrived under former NFL head coach Butch Davis' attacking defense at UNC. Many a draftnik projected him to go as early as round two after Thomas had a great postseason workout process and while that might have been was a bit high, he is a great value in round five.
Still in search of - Cornerback:
Antoine Cason, a 2008 first round pick who was replaced for a time as the Chargers nickelback last season, is penciled in as the starter opposite Quentin Jammer following the trade of Antonio Cromartie to the Jets. The trade was due in some part to the Bolts belief that Cason is ready for the gig and they better hope they are right as they did not draft a corner and their backups are nothing to write home about. Fortunately for the Bolts, they play in a division without a premiere passer other than their own guy.
Fantasy Sleeper - Malcom Floyd:
One of those restricted free agents that was hurt by the league labor issues, Floyd will remain the third wheel among Chargers receivers, but he is inching ever so closer to becoming more than just an afterthought behind Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. The sixth-year receiver averaged 17.2 ypc for the second straight year, but increased his receptions from 27-45. The 6-5 Floyd had only one score a year ago, but he makes for an ideal red zone target and would become a legit WR3 fantasy option if he gets more calls in that area and has a similar bump in receptions.
Focusing on the fantasy value of - Philip Rivers:
With LT2 gone, this is now officially Rivers offense, nay, team. That means no more having to defer plays, especially near the goal line, to an over-the-hill running back and putting the ball firmly in the hands of a QB that passed for over 4,000 yards for the second straight season. In this offense, Rivers may never get the opportunity to throw as often as some of the other top fantasy passers - he has never attempted 500 passes while Drew Brees has reached that mark five straight years - but his numbers should rise as now every game plan will have him first in mind. Easily a Top-5 fantasy quarterback.
Biggest Fantasy Question - Will Ryan Mathews become a fantasy starter from day one?
Running back was the obvious need with Tomlinson having been shown the door, finally, and the Chargers made a bold trade up to acquire the second leading rusher in D-1 last season. Even with Darren Sproles staying on board, this is clearly Mathews gig to lose and he could not ask for a better scenario; gets to play in a balanced offense with a top-notch passing game so he does not have the "pressure" of having to be the savior. Even running on his ancient wheels, LT2 scored 12 touchdowns and was still a Top 25-30 fantasy RB overall last season. Mathews, with his size, speed and every down back qualities, should easily do the same and likely better, especially since he will not be averaging a paltry 3.2 ypc like that old guy did.