NFL Picks: Week 1
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week One of the NFL season...
Fantasy might be what revs up my football passion each and every year - it used to be the Washington Redskins, but if you have lived through the Dan Snyder era like I have, you know that is not so easy anymore - but I loooove making picks!
So while the straight up calls, all the way through the Super Bowl (though I had the Colts), were rather solid (177-97), the actual picks against the spread were literally middle of the road (135-134-5). However, where I once again rose to the occasion was with my "Survivor" pool picks. For the second straight season, I made it all the way to the end with one of my entries (I typically enter two) still in tact. That's right, two straight seasons navigating each and every NFL week and coming out on the other side with a correct call 17 straight times. Of course this means I will get punted by Week 3 in the most painful of ways; Peyton Manning gets knocked out of a game, Randy Moss stops shy of end zone for a game-winning score as a protest to not getting a new deal or the Rams actually win a game in a week I pick their opponent, something they failed to do five times last season.
As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every Tuesday or anytime via ITunes.
As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he is all caught up on "Entourage". Could not be happier that the show FINALLY figured how to make Vincent Chase interesting. Have him date a porn star! Genius...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...
Home Team in CAPS
NEW ORLEANS 27 (-5.5) Minnesota 20 (Thursday): If this NFC Championship rematch was in another week, I might have backed the dog, especially one that is as talented as the Vikings. But I want to see what this offense - and specifically Brett Favre - looks like without Sidney Rice. Plus, defending Super Bowl champions typically win the home opener and I expect the Saints fans - plus that Drew Brees fella - to provide the extra emotional lift.
NY GIANTS 24 Carolina 20 (+6.5): The Panthers throttled the Giants in New York's home finale at the old Meadowlands last season and are back for the regular season debut of the new joint. Expect Tom Coughlin to have his crew off to a good start after a brutal end last season and the Giants pull out the battle of the ground games...Fantasy Angle - I've been out in front of the Ahmad Bradshaw hype, talking about him and putting my money where my mouth is when possible. Against a Panthers defense that was much better against the pass than run, feel comfortable starting Bradshaw as a flex or low-end RB2.
Miami 23 (-3) BUFFALO 13: Since I see the Detroit Lions moving from perennial cellar dweller to borderline .500 team, someone needs to fill the void at the bottom. Enter the Bills, who have the deadly combination of hideous offensive line, inability to stop the run and a QB who does not look like the long-term solution. Miami on the other hand is the most underrated team in the powerful AFC East and they take their first step towards making it back to the postseason, especially now that Chad Henne is ready to breakout...Fantasy Angle - Big day for the Dolphins backfield as the duo of Ronnie Brown (RB2) and Ricky Williams (flex) combine for 250 total yards and two touchdowns against a sorry Bills front seven.
PITTSBURGH 17 (+2) Atlanta 14: If Byron Leftwich were taking snaps for the Steelers this week, I would likely lean towards the Falcons, but I saw enough spark in Dennis Dixon during his one start last season for me think he gets the job done. More importantly, the Steelers defense is once again fully loaded now that Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back from injury...Fantasy Angle - Michael Turner was drafted ahead of Rashard Mendenhall much, much more often than not, but the Steelers runner will be the better fantasy play in this one.
Detroit 26 (+7) CHICAGO 20: The most impactful newcomer in the NFC North this season will be the Lions powerful rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The presence of the former Nebraska star - along with ex-Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch - will over the course of the season turn the Lions laughable defense into a formidable unit. In the opener, they show glimpses of that future by harrasing Jay Cutler into enough mistakes (shocker) to pull off the road win...Fantasy Focus - Of course, Suh will not even be the most exciting rookie on his own team, not with the electrifying Jahvid Best around. The rookie scat back explodes for one long score and racks up 130+ yards in his NFL debut.
NEW ENGLAND 20 Cincinnati 17 (+4.5): I want to see Carson Palmer be aggressive - and successful - down the field before I am ready to buy into the Bengals re-tuned passing attack. Still, their defense will look better than the one that wore down as last season went along, enough so to keep the game tight before Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski boots the game-winner at the gun...Fantasy Angle - Despite the fact that Wes Welker is not terribly far removed from injuring his ACL and MCL at the end of last season, he is expected to start the season for the Pats. Fantasy owners have bought in, drafting the slot receiver in the 4/5 round range, but the PPR dynamo himself is saying that he feels a "long way off". If you have him already, no need to panic. However, if I had comparable options, I would let him sit this week, especially against a strong Bengals secondary.
TAMPA BAY 21 Cleveland 20 (+3.5): All I can is that at least the opening game hoopla will add some sizzle to what is otherwise a battle of NFL bottom feeders. The home team gets it done, but the Browns cover the line, something they did seven straight weeks to close out 2009. Jerome Harrison is the top fantasy play as he hits triple digits on the ground... Fantasy Angle - of all the young starting QB options, Josh Freeman might be the most overlooked by fantasy owners. We all know Kellen Winslow is top-10 fantasy TE and nearly everyone is ready to buy into rookie wide out Mike Williams breaking out, but they also ignore the strong armed passer throwing them the ball. No, we are not talking fantasy star this year, but Freeman will start showing enough scoring potential to warrant QB2 consideration in short order...
JACKSONVILLE 23 (-3) Denver 17: What symmetry, having Tim Tebow play his NFL game back in the area where he became a star. Look for the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner to get in for a few plays, but even Tebow's magic will not be enough to save the Broncos in this one or from enduring a losing season...Fantasy Angle - it will be the starting QB on the other side that makes the difference. With the Broncos unable to mount a pass rush, Jaguars QB David Garrard will have time to find the diminutive speedster Mike Thomas for a couple of big plays. Both are risky to start this week and Garrard's limited scoring potential makes him little more than a QB2, but Thomas will start becoming a viable WR3 threat by the quarter pole of the season.
HOUSTON 28 (+2) Indianapolis 24: The young kid finally stands up to the school yard bully. If this is going to be the year the Texans finally make the playoffs, they need to beat their division tormentor. Behind the passing of Matt Schaub, they will and they do...Fantasy Angle - once Bob Sanders is done with him, owners might be wondering if they overdrafted Arian Foster this season. The answer - assuming he was not selected in the top-30 or so - is no, but the Colts safety will keep the Texans main runner in check.
TENNESSEE 20 (-6.5) Oakland 12: The Raiders are my sleeper pick to win the AFC West and they will stay tight with the Titans for a while, but as Dan Patrick would say, you can't stop Chris Johnson, you can only hope to contain him...Fantasy Angle - Assuming Titans coach Jeff Fisher sticks to his guns about limiting or sitting talented but unfocused receiver Kenny Britt, look for Nate Washington to receive the bulk of Vince Young's targets, making him a WR3 option this week.
Green Bay 31 (-3) PHILADELPHIA 24: At the start of the preseason, I was believing enough of the Kevin Kolb hype to take the Eagles in this game of potential NFC contenders. Now, well, let's just say I am of the opinion that Kolb will not show Pro Bowl from minute one, though he and the Eagles offense will soar at times. On the other sideline, Aaron Rodgers will be making the first start of his MVP season...Fantasy Angle - Other than Rodgers, there will be no bigger star for the Packers than TE Jermichael Finley, who burns an Eagles defense that typically struggles to cover the tight end position for not one but two touchdowns in what will be one of many dominating performances this season.
San Francisco 26 (-3) SEATTLE 17: The Niners are the class of the NFC West and come up large on the road with more Frank Gore than Michael Crabtree. The Seahawks should start prepping to take University of Washington QB Jake Locker with what is sure to be a very high 2011 pick...Fantasy Angle - Six games this year the Niners defense will face Sam Bradford, Derek Anderson and an aging Matt Hasselbeck. You will likely start the Patrick Willis led unit in all those games and this one is no exception.
ST. LOUIS 20 (+4) Arizona 17: No Kurt Warner. No Anquan Boldin. Maybe no Beanie Wells. All of that equals no win against what is sure to be a fired up Rams squad coming off an NFL-worst 1-15 season. Steven Jackson rushes for over 100 yards and Sam Bradford is good enough in his NFL debut...Fantasy Angle - if Wells is limited or the bad vibes about his knee continue to swirl and force him to the sideline, look for Touchdown Tim Hightower to post RB2 numbers against a Rams defense that allowed 24 rushing scores last season, which tied them with the Raiders for the most in the league.
WASHINGTON 14 (+3.5) Dallas 13: The Donovan McNabb/Mike Shanahan era in Washington begins with a win, in large part due to a defense that held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points in two games last season. Dallas still managed to win both of those games and they had their with McNabb last season when he was still slinging it for the Eagles, but the veteran QB - with some major defensive help - knocks off the NFC East favorite. Fantasy Angle - Redskins OLB Andre Carter has struggled in previous stints when he played outside in a 3-4 scheme. FS Kareem Moore (knee) will miss the opener, plus others. All of that means Cowboys TE Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones should have plenty of opportunities to shine if their coaching staff gets their weapons into opportunistic scenarios.
Baltimore 17 (+2.5) NY JETS 14: The J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets will drop the first game in their new digs to a Ravens squad that has surely being gearing up for this defensive. Joe Flacco looks sharp in his opener, even against the Jets dynamic defense, while Ray Lewis toys with Mark Sanchez, helping to force the Jets QB into throwing two interceptions... Fantasy Angle - Will the Ravens target Darelle Revis? Reputation aside, yes. The guy missed the entire preseason and the level of his playing shape has to be determined. Still, tread lightly on starting Anquan Boldin, though you should only sit him if the potential statistics for your other options are within close proximity to the former Cards star receiver.
KANSAS CITY 27 (+4) San Diego 24: The Chiefs are still a year or two away from competing in the AFC, but they will show vast improvement over the previous year in their home opener while the Chargers once again come out of the gates slowly...Fantasy Angle - Dwayne Bowe kicks it off with a 5-93-1 line. Solid.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road, so other than in scenarios where I have no other options or say the Colts are at the Rams, I am taking home favs.
Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants. The Titans got off to brutal start last season and it cost them a playoff berth, but they get it done against the Raiders. The Giants are actually the highest spread on the board and while that is odd, I'll roll the dice with them against the one-dimensional Panthers.