Ben's Brain - NFL Offseason review and fantasy preview

Recapping the offseason and a fantasy look ahead, AFC West

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 15:18:00 -0400

With the completion of the NFL Draft and the main portion of free agency in the books, it is time to start review the moves made and start looking ahead to the regular and fantasy seasons. Today I turn to the AFC West, looking at the best draft related move teams made, holes remaining, fantasy sleepers, players that have had a change in value and what is the top question for fantasy owners to ponder with training camp still about two months away. Catch previous posts on the NFC East and stay tuned for the NFC North...

Denver Broncos

Best Use of Draft Pick - Eric Decker:
Unlike his fellow rookie receiver Demaryius Thomas, who still needs to learn how to run NFL quality routes, Decker enters the NFL as a near fully formed receiver. Even though he was often a one-man-gang with the Golden Gophers, Decker has shown the ability to produce (in 2008 he went hauled in 84 passes, scored seven touchdowns and went for over 1,000 yards) and make both the easy and tough catches. To illustrate that last point, here is a great stat from CBSSports.com: Minnesota quarterbacks have targeted Decker for 354 passes during his career and he dropped just three in 45 games (0.085%). In other words, Braylon Edwards he is not. The 6-3 Decker slid in the draft due to a foot injury that cost him time last season and that - plus the normal rookie receiver curve - limits his 2010 fantasy value. Once healthy, he could easily become the Broncos leader in receptions for years to come.

Still in search of - Stability:
From the firing of their Super Bowl winning coach to trading away their two most productive, albeit disgruntled offensive stars, it is almost amazing the Broncos have not completely hit rock bottom over the past 12-18 months. The way the Broncos need to look at the situation is what one of my favorite characters on "Lost" says; whatever happened, happened. The Tim Tebow pick had as much to do with the notion of adding a player that won't rock the boat as much as anything. Almost regardless of record, this season will be a success if the Broncos can simply avoid another confrontational type offseason and use that to build upon going forward.

Fantasy Sleeper - Jabar Gaffney:
So Marshall is gone, now what. Eddie Royal is coming off a brutal season and while he would benefit by moving to the slot, the Broncos have yet to say if this will happen. Brandon Stokely is nothing more than solid depth and the two rookies will likely have at least some level of adjustment. That leaves the Gaffney as the Orton's likely top outside target to start the season. While the nine-year vet has never been anything close to a fantasy star, he did catch at least three passes in 10 games last season, including hauling in 14 receptions for 213 yards in the final game when Marshall was suspended. Gaffney also has a shot to get off to a quick start as the Broncos play porous secondaries (Jags, Seahawks) to start the season and will likely need to throw plenty against the Colts the following week.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn:
In this context, we are talking about keeper value. For any rookie QB, I think the wise course of action is to sit them on the sideline for at least one full season and the case of Tebow, who has much in the way of adjustments to make, that should be the case regardless. I'm with those that question his style in a pro offense, but at some point the Broncos are going to give him a shot. Considering it is in his football DNA to be a runner, I think it's reasonable to assume that he could augment potential so-so passing stats with yards and scores on the ground so in deep dynasty leagues, I might roll the dice if roster space permits (though Jimmy Clausen is in the best situation of the rookie QBs). For Quinn, it is hard to judge because odds are his next legit chance at a starting gig comes on another team as Kyle Orton is the starter and Tebow the long term hope. While I was not a fan of the former Notre Dame star coming out of college, he has still only played in a grand total of 14 games in three seasons and I expect some team (Buffalo? Washington) to make a play for him, maybe as soon as this season.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Without their top playmaker, will Denver be a viable fantasy offense?
Two seasons ago the Broncos had a prolific offense directed by the offensive "genius" Mike Shanahan and staring two up-and-coming young stars in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall has followed the other two out the door - and do not forget TE Tony Scheffler was also traded - they have the unproven Josh McDaniels, the ordinary Kyle Orton and nothing resembling a Pro Bowl receiver at this moment. One piece they do have to build around is Knowshon Moreno, who had a solid all-around rookie campaign and the Broncos drafted two offensive lineman to help him improve upon his 3.8 ypc average. If Moreno can become the focal point, then Broncos will not need to rely heavily on Orton, which is a good thing as he is a more is less kind of passer. There is enough here to project their offense being fantasy competent most weeks and Moreno has a shot to be a Top-20 player at his position, but there are unlikely any other weekly fantasy stars here unless Royal finds his 2008 mojo.

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Recapping the offseason and a fantasy look ahead, NFC East style

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 15:20:00 -0400

Next: AFC West

With the completion of the NFL Draft and the main portion of free agency in the books, it is time to start review the moves made and start looking ahead to the regular and fantasy seasons. Today I start with the NFC East, looking at the best draft related move teams made, holes remaining, fantasy sleepers, players that have had a change in value and what is the top question for fantasy owners to ponder with training camp still about two months away...Also do not forget to listen to the FFToolbox Podcast this Thursday at 7pm EST as we provide a detailed recap of the draft and start voicing our 2010 fantasy thoughts for the season ahead.

Dallas Cowboys

Best Use of Draft Pick - Dez Bryant: The Cowboys are aggressive in the passing game and found a diamond in the rough last year in Miles Austin, but at the same time received minimal production from the other wide out slot. With that in mind and knowing the Baltimore Ravens were set to take Bryant with the 25th overall selection, the Cowboys moved one pick ahead of them to take the talented playmaker. Bryant likely would have been a Top-10 pick if he the NCAA had not suspended him for the majority of the 2009 season and he could make an immediate impact if his head is on straight during training camp.

Still in search of - Left tackle depth: Doug Free takes over as Tony Romo's blindside protector following the release of Flozell Adams and the Cowboys may need to bring in more tackle help if the four-year pro does not adjust quickly in training camp after spending much of his career on the right side. Truth be told, the Cowboys did not have many holes heading into the offseason, but filled two areas of need by drafting Bryant and safety Akwasi Owusu-Ansah in the first four rounds.

Fantasy Sleeper - Roy Williams: OK, I can hear your snide remarks from here and trust me, my loathing of the Cowboys bust is equal to yours. Still, IF Williams puts forth the effort this offseason and can regain the confidence of the Cowboys coaching staff, he likely is their opening game starter as the team will not want to rush Bryant. In this offense, that makes Williams fantasy viable as a deep reserve. Since his reputation is mud among fantasy owners, it is hard to imagine him getting selected an earlier than the 10-12 round range in 12-team leagues. At that price, he is worth taking a flyer on. Just remember to hold your nose while drafting him.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - Jason Witten: Tony Romo's best bud was arguably the number one fantasy tight end entering last season, but he failed to provide owners with top level performance for most of the season, not reaching double figure scoring in non-PPR leagues during the first 11 weeks. Much of that was due to defenses taking away Romo's safety blanket and the Cowboys keeping him in to block in the red zone. The latter likely stays the same, but Witten should find more openings in the middle of the field with Austin and Bryant putting a scare into secondaries on the outside. Their are sexier options at tight end, but Witten will be a solid and more consistent fantasy play this season.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Can Felix Jones wrestle the primary running back slot away from Marion Barber? All indications are that the Cowboys plan to feature the elusive Jones, he of the jaw-dropping 6.5 ypc career average, much more this season. of course, injuries are a major concern for the slight third-year back and the Barbarian likely receives the bulk of the goal line carries. Still, baring a training camp setback, Jones is the best bet to lead the Cowboys backs in fantasy points this season.

New York Giants

Best Use of Draft Pick - Chad Jones: Since I am skeptical of the "one-year at a BCS school" resume sported by workout warrior Jason Pierre-Paul, I'll go the other uber-athlete the Giants selected, this one in round three. While FS Antrell Rolle was a high-priced and somewhat questionable pickup this offseason, Jones has a shot to be the long-term answer, either as a centerfielder or strong safety type. A two-sport stud at LSU, the 6-2 rookie just needs some seasoning to reach his rock'em sock'em potential as a ball-hawking starter.

Still in search of - Change of pace RB: C.J. Spiller was a popular mock draft pick for the Giants because Brandon Jacobs' ypc average plummeted to 3.7 yards, Ahmad Bradshaw is no burner and the Giants top two backs combined for a mere 39 receptions last season and are coming off offseason surgery. In other words, Big Blue still could stand to add versatile running back with speed and pass catching ability. That would allow them to return to their three-headed monster of a backfield formula that proved so effective in 2008.

Fantasy Sleeper - Ahmad Bradshaw: speaking of Mr. Bradshaw, he gutted out nearly a full season despite rarely practicing due to injuries to both feet and right ankle, all of which were operated on following the season. That does not sound like the medical report of a full-time starter and that is not the role the Giants envision for the fourth-year back. However, he still received double digit touches in 12 games last season and is playing along side Jacobs, who took a step back as a starter last season and has his own injury history. Bradshaw may not receive more than 12-15 touches a game regardless, but he would see an increase in fantasy production if Jacobs suffers a setback or the Giants are ready to let someone else become the lead dog in this RBBC.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - Hakeem Nicks: At various times last year, Mario Manningham, Steve Smith or Hakeem Nicks was the Giants top fantasy receiver. While Smith likely has the most value in PPR leagues, Nicks is the one fantasy owners should be targeting this season. The second-year receiver plays bigger than his 6-1 height suggests, has downfield speed and simply makes plays as his 16.8 ypc and stat line (47-790-6) suggests. The cat is already out of the bag and the preseason buzz on Nicks is likely to be Newark Airport loud, but is on the verge of becoming a a top-20 fantasy receiver all the same.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Will the Giants have a short leash with Brandon Jacobs this season? Seriously, how over-hyped has the career of Brandon Jacobs been? You would think he was a perennial Pro Bowler (never been) who churns out 1,200 yards each season (never, barely has topped 1,000 twice). He certainly has been a solid back with a high yards per carry average and two years ago he scored 15 touchdowns. Granted, his numbers could have been better if not for the injuries, you know, the one's that crop up every winter and fall, causing Jacobs to miss nine games over the last three seasons. You may think I'm picking on Jacobs, but I have largely focused on the productive seasons, which last year was not as his ypc (3.7) plummeted and he found the end zone only six times. As long as the Giants do not make a significant addition _ and they want too, believe it _ Jacobs likely leads Giants backs in fantasy points, but fantasy owners are not the only ones frustrated by the big hype over the big back followed by the lack of 16-week production. Unless you simply want to justify that Giants 27 jersey you bought on a whim, remember to look elsewhere come draft day. I'm thinking Tom Coughlin is ready to as well.

Philadelphia Eagles

Best Use of Draft Pick - Brandon Graham: Even though the Eagles blitz schemes still helped them generate 44 sacks last year, tied for third in the NFL, they were looking for another front four pass rusher to help take the pressure off of Trent Cole and moved up in the first round to do so. Enter Graham, the quick 6-1 end with a Dwight Freeney-esque spin move in his repertoire that he used in part to rack up 10 sacks in each of his last two collegiate seasons. He has defensive rookie of the year written all over him.

Still in search of - Offensive line depth: One year ago, the Eagles were thought to have significantly upgraded their offensive line, but LT Jason Peters failed to live up to expectations and guard Shawn Andrews never rebounded from knee and depression issues. Depth was expected to be added during the draft, but they failed to use any of their 13 picks on the offensive line.

Fantasy Sleeper - Jeremy Maclin: Coming out of Missouri's spread offense, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was expected to take time adjusting to the pro game, but he fit in quickly and finished his first year with a respectable 55-715-4 stat line. Beyond simply having another year under his belt, Maclin should get a significant bump up in production in part because he gets the benefit of playing along side the league's top gamebreaker this side of Chris Johnson in DeSean Jackson and a rising star at tight end in Brent Celek. With defenses rolling their coverages elsewhere, Maclin will be no worse than a platoon WR2 most weeks.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - LeSean McCoy: The former Pitt Panther was drafted last season with an eye toward him taking over for the now-released Brian Westbrook this year and some early flashes had keeper league owners thinking they hit a home run by drafting him. That may still be, but McCoy faded down the stretch, averaging only 3.59 ypc (37-133) over the final five games. He would not be the first rookie to run of gas, but it makes it less likely that the Eagles will tax him with a heavy workload. With Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver around for the goal line work, hard to see McCoy being more than a RB3/Flex option come draft day.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Can Kevin Kolb keep the high-powered offense humming? In a word, yes. Look, ignore the numbers he posted in those two early starts a season ago when Donovan McNabb was hurt as one was in a blowout loss, the other against the lowly Chiefs. The key is that Kolb, who is a much more accurate thrower than the man he is replacing, showed plenty of zip on his throws and strong connection with his receiving targets. There is sure to be some early low points, but with his skill set in a pass-heavy attack, Kolb is a Top 12-15 fantasy QB play right now and could be a weekly QB1 play sooner than later.

Washington Redskins

Best Use of Draft Pick - Donovan McNabb: No knock on Jason Campbell and regardless of the long-term outlook for the 33-year old former Eagle, McNabb brings leadership and competence to what has been a rudderless offensive huddle and provides the Redskins with their best QB option in a decade. While several of the positions around him are in flux, the stability McNabb brings to the table should rule the day. Will that translate to a playoff berth? Eh, we'll see, but there are enough weapons to work with to believe McNabb's addition alone can make one believe the postseason is a legit possibility and that No. 5's fantasy numbers will not tail off dramatically. Assuming another lineman or two is added, McNabb is a low-end QB1 in 12-team leagues.

Still in search of - Offensive line depth: The real answer to this query might be a home for disgruntled DT Albert Haynesworth, but for now he remains with the team, emphasis on for now. Like Haynesworth, the pre-Mike Shanahan administration was famous for high priced acquisitions while failing to add copious amounts of young talent to the roster. That has led to them being a very good on paper starting-22, but paper thin overall. The offensive line remains the most obvious place in need of more legit bodies, even after drafting Trent Williams fourth overall. Only two starters returned and the other options on the roster on the roster are journeyman or unproven players. While former Cowboys LT Flozell Adams is the king of the penalty, I keep seeing him landing in Burgundy and Gold. The line is so thin, it couldn't hurt.

Fantasy Sleeper - Devin Thomas: Outside of one 7-100-2 game last season, Thomas' first two years in the NFL have largely been on the bust side of the ledger, though he flashed just enough in the second half of 2009 to give the Redskins brass hope they would eventually get rewarded for selecting the former Michigan Stater in round two. The starting slot opposite Santana Moss remains Thomas' for the taking and now he gets a passer whose bread-and-butter is the deep ball. If he adjusts to the new offense and shows a willingness in training camp to improve, Thomas could be a rotational WR2/3 candidate in fantasy leagues.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - Chris Cooley and Fred Davis: Cooley has been remarkably consistent over his six seasons, but an injury cost him the final nine games in 2009. That gave an opening to Davis, who barely could get on the field prior in part because of his apparent struggles with the playbook. Once he moved into the starting lineup, Davis became a true force, scoring five touchdowns in a four week span, averaging four plus catches and 53 yards in those games. We saw what Tony Scheffler did in a Shanahan offense and either of these players would dwarf his production over a full season IF they had the job outright. Alas, they don't, barring a trade or Cooley suffers a setback. This will be a training camp situation worth monitoring to see if a top-10 fantasy tight end emerges.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Which of their fading running backs will be the one to own? It was assumed that the Redskins would bring in help _ if not a replacement _ for Clinton Portis this offseason, but I do not think anyone predicted Larry Johnson and Willie Parker would be that help. Considering none of three play special teams, offer much in the way of speed and only Portis is known to be a decent pass catcher, it is hard to see how these backs will form a cohesive RBBC let alone all make the roster. Best guess for now is Portis works harder than normal as he tries to rebuild his tarnished reputation after a rough year and comes out as the back to own. From a fantasy value standpoint, the often loathsome Johnson is the sneaky play as he actually has less wear on the tires than Portis. That of course assumes LJ doesn't let his jerk side show too often with poor habits and inappropriate comments. At this point, the Redskins backfield will be one to avoid.

Next: AFC West