Ben's Brain - NFL Football

Week 1 - NFL and Survivor picks; NFL season picks

Sat, 10 Sep 2011 12:34:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 1 of the NFL season...

These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who promises to do better with his predictions or your money back...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Times and the National Football Post. Scheduled for Tuesday's and Thursday's at 7 p.m. or anytime via ITunes and that's where you will find this week's fantasy angles...

Home Team in CAPS

Atlanta 23 CHICAGO 21 (+2.5)

HOUSTON 31 Indianapolis 23 (+9)

KANSAS CITY 24 Buffalo 20 (+5.5)

Tennessee 27 (+1) JACKSONVILLE 17

CLEVELAND 28 (-6) Cincinnati 17

ST. LOUIS 24 (+4) Philadelphia 21

Pittsburgh 20 (+1) BALTIMORE 17

Detroit 27 (+1) TAMPA BAY 23

SAN DIEGO 34 (-9) Minnesota 21

WASHINGTON 20 (+2.5) NY Giants 17

ARIZONA 24 (-6) Carolina 14

SAN FRANCISCO 22 Seattle 17 (+5.5)

NY JETS 24 (-5.5) Dallas 17

New England 23 MIAMI 17

DENVER 28 (-3) Oakland 24

GREEN BAY 35 (-4) New Orleans 30

Last week: Straight, Spread; Overall: Straight, Spread

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Survivor picks

Entry 1 - Houston

Entry 2 - Kansas City (but I'm tempted to go with Cleveland)

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NFL season predictions

NFC Division winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona

NFC wild cards: Atlanta, Detroit

NFC Champion: Green Bay

NFC Championship game: Green Bay over New Orleans

AFC Division winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, San Diego

AFC wild cards: New York Jets, Houston

AFC Championship game: New England over San Diego

Super Bowl: Green Bay over New England

Regular season MVP: 1) Philip Rivers 2) Aaron Rodgers 3) Tom Brady

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On the FFToobox podcast and elsewhere I've been yapping about fantasy football players I love and those I loathe, both overall and relative to their draft day rank. Here is the compilation of those rants and my final stance on all heading into the 2011 NFL season. And yes, I was down on Peyton Manning waaaaaay before his neck injury became a doom and gloom scenario...

Quarterbacks

Loving - Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford

Liking - Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Henne, Vince Young

Loathing - Peyton Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Andy Dalton

My fave - Matthew Stafford, if of course- say it with me - he can stay healthy

Don't get the fantasy hype - Sam Bradford, unless you tell me which of his receivers will definitely emerge

Running backs

Loving - Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Stephen Jackson, Darren McFadden, Jahvid Best, Reggie Bush, Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate, Delone Carter, Roy Helu Jr.

Liking - Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, LeGarrette Blount, Shonn Greene, Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram ,Tim Hightower, Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter

Loathing - Michael Turner, Peyton Hillis, Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, C. J. Spiller, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Marshawn Lynch, Daniel Thomas, Donald Brown, Ryan Torain

My fave - Darren McFadden. Beast.

Don't get the fantasy hype - Felix Jones, seeing as the one year he stayed healthy he lost his game-breaking pop. Until it all happens in the same season, can't see why he was getting picked in round two or three...

Wide Receiver

Loving - Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, Jacoby Ford, Eric Decker

Liking - Mike Wallace, Mario Manningham, Julio Jones, Santana Moss, Lee Evans, Mike Sims-Walker, Plaxico Burress, Emmanuel Sanders, Jabar Gaffney

Loathing - Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Johnson, Johnny Knox, Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, Donald Driver

My fave - Jordy Nelson. Beast in the Super Bowl, has best chance to be the number three target in unreal passing attack.

Don't get the fantsay hype - Marques Colston/Steve Johnson. Colston way inconsistent for where he gets drafted and let's see Johnson perform without Lee Evans and defenses keying on him.

Tight End

Loving - Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook

Liking - Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, Aaron Hernandez, Greg Olsen

Loathing - Marcedes Lewis, Tony Gonzalez, Chris Cooley, Visante Shiancoe

My fave - Graham/Cook. The pair could lead their respective teams in receptions.

Don't get the fantasy hype - Tony Gonzalez (there might not be hype, but people continued draft him like it's 2004)

Defenses

Loving - Green Bay, Detroit, St. Louis, Arizona, teams that play against Andy Dalton and the other rookie passers

Sunday Observations from the Couch

Sun, 26 Sep 2010 13:30:00 -0400

What's up fellow Fantasy Football Fanatics...since I will be out at Redskins Park on Monday and won't have time to post my Monday observations report, I thought I'd go with a all-day blog post. Chime in with email's (podcast@fftoolbox.com), tweets (@benstandig) or comments at the bottom of this post...

4:01 - Queried before as to why Jahvid Best has posted scant numbers. Well it turns out he has been out much of the second half with a toe injury. Doesn't sound serious, but Maurice Morris is surely going to be a name to watch this week...OK, Redskins-Rams about to start and I'm going to go focus there for now. Will be back later with updates and thoughts about this high-scoring week three...

3:53 - BenJarvus Green-Ellis was a waiver wire name mentioned on the podcast this week and right now is just at 94 yards and a TD while Fred Taylor has six carries for 16 yards. The Law Firm will be owned in all leagues after this week...a deep league fantasy RB to ponder this week; LeGarrette Blount scored a TD and at this point leads the Bucs with 27 rush yards on six carries. Haven't watched much of this game and the Bucs got rolled, but Blount has a punchers chance of getting serious run going forward. Not a fan of Cadillac so wouldn't be a shocker to me if at some point the Bucs let youth be served...

3:42 - Moments after a 40+ yard run put him over the century mark, Chris Johnson scampered in from eight yards around the left end for his second score of the game. With the game almost over, CJ has a 32-125-2 stat line (no catches). Beastly.

3:37- Any hope of a Panthers win ended when Jonathan Stewart fumbled and the Bengals quickly turned that into a Palmer-to-Benson scoring pass. "Daily Show" has a score, but eight carries for 13 yards and should be planted on fantasy benhces until further notice...

3:33 - Romo and Roy Williams hook up again, this time it goes for 63 yards when the defender fell down covering a short slant. Even though I went for the Texans this week when the line dipped under three, it seemed like the Cowboys were destined to win this game. Couldn't go 0-3, no matter how much we wanted it...

3:28 - I haven't seen Jahvid Best on the RedZone channel since the first quarter. That can't be a good sign. Nine touches, 39 yards..TD Roddy White on a great pass to the corner of the end zone by Ryan. Perfect timing between those two. White had only two fantasy points when that drive began, now up to 12...

3:26 - Flacco to Boldin, count it. This one was a perfectly thrown lob down the field over the secondary. Three scores for that combo. And I was sooo trying to trade for Boldin in one league this week. Oh well...

3:23 - Another 4pm roster update; Addai is active...now that we are into the 4th, its time to start rooting for favorites to lose for my Survivor pool. I have the Pats which is looking better, but still within one score. Lots of folks have the Ravens so go Brownies!!!

3:17 - Tony Moeaki, wow. Dude made a silly back of the end zone grab. Two scores on the season. And the Chiefs, up 24-3. What is more shocking, Chiefs 3-0 or Niners 0-3? I'll say the former; you could talk me into Alex Smith bringing the Niners down, but no way did i see the Chiefs being undefeated.

3:10 - Roster updates for 4pm games; Beanie Wells, Clinton Portis are active. Laurent Robinson is out. Also Braylon Edwards is reportedly going to get a one play punishment for his DUI. Weak Rex, weak. Another note in Redskins game, rookie LT Trent Williams is also inactive...

3:03 - Andre Johnson is back, whew. Too bad Schaub badly overthrew him and right into the arms of Cowboys corner Mike Jenkins. That turnover led to a Roy Williams score, 17-3 Dallas. Schaub right now is 11-17, 112 yards, one pick. This would be two weeks out of three with scant fantasy production. Not worried, just saying...

2:57 - in my "advanced" league, was trying to get a receiver upgrade since my core of Maclin, Bowe, Celek and Tony Gonzalez was brutal for the most part. Now Gonzo has 99 yards and a score, and Bow just hauled in a long TD off a gadget play. Was told all week no interest in these guys, especially Gonzo. Just goes to show you that you can't let what just happened dictate your look-ahead thoughts; Gonzo was a legit top-7 TE three weeks ago so why folks non-producing donkey's wouldn't be interested is beyond me. Then again, I was the one looking to make a move...Yes, this game drives me crazy.

2:54 - Interesting note in the 4pm games; Redskins punter Josh Bidwell apparently pulled up lame during warmups so rookie kicker Graham Gano is gearing up to pull double duty. Bidwell also the holder so Gano's day is looking a lot more complicated than it did yesterday when a certain someone picked him up to use against the lowly Rams.

2:51 - After the Pats score, Spiller runs the following kickoff all the way back for a score, Bills down 24-23. Owners in non-return yards leagues will get excited when they see the score and then get bitter when they see it was on teams...After Clausen throws incomplete in the end zone, Jonathan Stewart sneaks in from the one, Panthers down 10-7...

2:46 - Back to New Orleans where the Saints go for it on 4th-and-one at the Falcons 32 and Chris Ivory is stuffed...Wait, Chris Ivory is stuffed? And he has four carries to Pierre Thomas' five? Seriously, Sean Payton is the most maddening coach when it comes to fantasy backs. You never know what Bill Belicheck will do, but the Pats coach doesn't have a stud like Thomas either...A Kenny Britt sighting! The former Rutgers star gets a score at the Meadowlands. Dude has crazy talent, but the 'tude has been the issue. Well, that and the Titans don't throw a ton, but this will put him back on the waiver wire reports this week...

2:43 - Had to cut that stat update short with the vision of Andre Johnson lying on the ground in pain. Covered the Texans locker room last week and he was walking gingerly afterwards, but toughed it out. As a Schaub owner, breathlessly awaiting this update...Randy Moss strikes again, this time with a rare catch in traffic. Looks like the Pats offense has it clicking now...

2:35 - Since most of the games are at halftime, good time to do a quick fantasy look-around...

NYG-Ten; Eli Manning is 17-20 for 188 yards, but two of his misses have gone to the Titans. Chris Johnson has a TD, but a pedestrian 54 yards on 17 carries. Bradshaw 57 total yards and a TD...

Cin-Car; Carson Palmer is a brutal 10-24, 116, 2int, but the Bengals are up 10-0 because Jimmy Clausen is 1-5, 14 and one pick in his NFL debut. Steve Smith owners are linging for the good old days of Jake Delhomme right about now...

Pit-TB; Mike Wallace is getting the bulk of Batch's production, 3-100-2. Mendenhall is 9-40-1.One ray of sunshine for Bucs is rookie receiver Mike Williams, who has 4-53. Steeleers up 28-6 at half.

Buf-NE; Pats get last second field goal for a 17-16 lead in a surprisingly tight first half. Moss and backup RB Danny Woodhead have the Pats scores. Woodhead is clearly another candidate to pick up Kevin Faulk snaps, though his fantasy value remains limited for now. Aaron Hernandez 3-52.

Cle-Bal; already into third quater where Boldin just had another big gain and is already at 6-102-2. Hillis is over 100 total yards and has scored while Ray Rice has 56 yards on nine carries, 12 yards on three grabs.

2:20 - I would have been laughing so hard if any of my opponents had gone with Batch this week that peeing in the pants would have been on the potential menu for the day so I can't even imagine how bitter I'd be now that the Steelers fourth-string QB has thrown for three TDP and 177 yards in the first half. Last time he threw that many scores in a game? Opening week of the 2006 season.

2:17 - Turner pounds it home, 14-all. On the positive side, Turner is dominating Jason Snelling with touches (19-3) and has a score. On the other hand, he is averaging just over two yards a carry and 47 total yards...

2:10 - Adrian Peterson scores a shorty for Vikes, Hillis the same for the Browns (first TD allowed by the Ravens this season). Michael Turner is trying to join the fun, but got stopped at the one then gets horse collared. The refs call it, 1st and goal at the one. And...into the pile for nothing. Brian Billick called for a play-action pass on first down and I bet he gets it here.

2:05 - Only parts of Cle-Bal game I've seen has been the Boldin scores so I am downright giddy to see that Peyton Hillis is running all over the Ravens vaunted run defense to the tune of 10-71. Oh wait, he is leading the Browns w/ five receptions totaling 27 yards, the last grap getting the added battering ram finish. Love watching this guy. Also a James Davis sighting with Jerome Harrison inactive. At this point I think it will take a lot for Jerome to back into the mix, at least in terms of fantasy viability while Hillis is knocking on the RB@ door step...

1:58 - My Survivor pick is struggling early as the Pats are about to fall behind the Bills - THE BILLS...and there it is, a swing pass to C.J. Spiller for his first NFL score. Not sure I understand what is going on with the Pats. Maybe the killer instinct is gone, but no way should they be close with this team, let alone trailing minutes before halftime. Someone find a padded room for Bill Simmons, just in case...Mike Wallace does it again, this time catching a deflected pass in the end zone for another loooong score and the Steelers are cruising 21-6 against the Bucs...Marion Barber introduces himself to the end zone for the first time this season. Cowboys 7-3.

1:55 - Anquan Boldin gets another score. I don't think anyone will be fretting about the Ravens passing game after this week...

1:51 - What is with these QB's fliiping the ball like a shortstop tossing it to the second baseman for the putout. First Eli, now Brees with an incredibly poor decision that also gets picked off. Rarely see Brees make that kind of gaffe...Dez Bryant makes a silly leaping catch on a deep ball at the end zone, but the pass forced him to drift out of bounds. Then he comes back with a physical grab over the middle. Scary talent. Also scary that the Cowboys-Texans game is 3-0 late in 2Q. Where are all the points we were promised!!!...1:47 - Moments after Chris Johnson powered his way in for a short score, Rashard Mendenhall slams his way into the end zone. Obviously everyone likes CJ, but I liked Mendenhaall a lot this year and its impressive he's been able to do anything with little help from his QBs and injuries along the oline...Dexter McCluster, the Percy Harvin of this rookie class - was scary explosive taking a pass in the flat 3 yards for a score. It will take a little time for him to be fantasy viable, but defenses MUST account for him when he is on the field. Huge mismatch against linebackers.

1:45 - If its possible, Palmer's second pick was waaaaaaaay worse than the first one Seriosuly folks, why are using him. Move away from the the Bengals #9 jersey...Favre to Harvin! Have Harvin in "injustry" and at the Favre "sleeper" pick stays alive...

1:39 - Drew Brees is insanley accurate. So much so that I'd rather him pick games instead of some random monkey or octopus no matter how cutre people think that is...oh, Brees and Lance Moore connected for an 80-yard TD, which was about a 25-yard slant and a 55-yard run. Saints 14-7.

1:35 - Brett Favre throws his fifth pick of the season. Didn't see what happened, but a defensive lineman caught it. My sleeper pick of the week, not off to a good start (by the way, here are the other "sleeper" picks; Evan Silva from Rotoworld took Redskins RB Keiland Williams. Brian Murphy took Lee Evans and George Bissell took Fred Jackson. Some off-the-wall calls for sure, but hey, that's what sleepers are all about. The first two weeks (Peyton Hillis, Kyle Orton) worked so let's see if Favre can rally and keep my streak going...

1:26 - Lots of early scoring as now Anquan Boldin (from Flacco) gets on the board. Sweet over the top pass from Flacco...Cedric Benson just benefitted from a PI in the end zone and bounced to the outside for TD. I still am waiting to cash my Bernard Scott lottery ticket so this won't help.

1:22 - All the owners that sad Mike Wallace are bitter after him seeing catch that long bomb for a TD from Charlie Batch. Didn't know CB could still throw that far...nobody sat Randy Moss, who just scored. Its a "name your final number" kind of game for the Pats, so expect more, much more from Tom Brady and friends (speaking of the Pats, heard Tim Hasselbeck this morning talking about Julian Edelman as a possible Kevin Faulk replacement down the line. Interesting...)

1:19 - Tony Gonzalez lives! Wasn't quite sure after that horrid start, but he just hauled in a 34-yard pass and then a 13-yard TD catch! He had five points on the season; got 10 on that drive alone...Eli, what was that. Even Brett Favre and Tony Romo can't believe you were so carless with that sideways flip into traffice in the end zone. Ouch.

1:11 - and the first TD of the goes to Jeremy Shockey on a short pass from Drew Brees. Considering Shockey is always overvalued, I would talk him up all day to my friends that need a TE and then ship him off this week. Love the early scores that will get shown over and over and over again for this reason!

1:09 - and Jimmy Clausen fumbles the third snap of his career to give the Bengals the ball right back. Obviously you can't count on the former Golden Domer this week or likely this season, but I was higher on Clausen then apparently the NFL minds were. And trust me, I do not root for Notre Dame. I like his moxie and you want your QB to have attitude (after dealing with Jason Campbell's lukewarm vibe, trust me, you want some spunk)

1:06 - three early picks, the worst coming from Carson Palmer who missed his target by five yards. Not sure why folks are still buying Palmer has fantasy starter; he can win games, but only as a Trent Dilfer type effort (i.e. no mistakes, but no aggression)

12:33 - Thank god for the RedZone Channel since the only 1pm game here is Cle-Bal. That one will be Darryl Talley ugly. 4pm, Skins-Rams and Colts-Broncos, then the SNF game NYJ-Mia. Other than Graham Gano and NYJ defense, I don;t have anyone going in any of those games. Again, thank you RedZone channel.

Otherwise, did the egg/pancake thing this morning with some out-of-town relatives so belly is full. Alas I have no midday snack option other than popcorn (that kind of error is equivalent of Andy Reid's poor end of game clock management. No excuses).

Obviously every game and most viable fantasy options have interest, but in general here are the guys I am most focused on, at least at 1pm:

***oh, first let me say that like you out there, I have multiple leagues and while I try not to talk about my teams on the podcast, some of that talk will leak out today. Basically I have four leagues; the venerable (started in 1993, defending champ, the former office (defending champ) the advanced (smart setup, but I'm 0-2) and the industry (league with other fantasy writers). Let me know which players we are bonding over and where we are on the other sides of fence...

QB: Brett Favre; he was my Podcast "sleeper" pick this week abd its now or never. If he doesn't light up the Lions, its likely pull the rip cord time...For - Rodgers, Schaub, Vick(2); Against Vick, Ryan (2), Flacco,

RB: Michael Turner (advanced); anytime your guy leaves in-game it is always a blow, especially when the backup comes in and puts up insane stats like Jason Snelling did last week. Barring a blowout loss, I will be very disappointed if Turner doesn't get 20+ touches...For - Best/McFadden, C. Johnson/P.Thomas, Turner/Hightower, Thomas/Mendenhall/Bradshaw...Against - Turner, McCoy, Rice (2), MJD, Forte, D. Williams

WR/TE: For - White/Nicks/Finley, Jennings/S.Smith (Car)/Finley, Maclin/Bowe/Celek/Gonzalez); Against - Jennings (2), Austin, Colston, Fitzgerald, Bryant

OK, let's do this!!!

Late Monday Observations One Day After Being in the Press Box

Mon, 20 Sep 2010 19:55:00 -0400

FedEx Field has not been a place for the faint of heart two games into the season as both contests have been decided on the final play. Depending on your vantage point , either the Washington Redskins blew a 27-10 lead or the Houston Texans rallied from a 17-point hole. Either way, nobody can say games involving the Redskins are boring anymore, that's for sure. Here are my thoughts on that game as well as other notes from around the league,..

Houston

1) It was obvious already, but on the football field, Andre Johnson is a man. Forced to the sideline with a sprained ankle – one that later was wrapped King Tut-like – Johnson went to the locker room to get "treatment" and came back out telling the coaches he was going back in even after the trainers said he was done. We know the rest; scores the game-tying TD on a fourth down, jump-ball pass. He was moving slowly in the press room after the game, enough to show that he was not 100%, but the effort he gave upon his return clearly was.

2) Fine, Arian Foster will not run for 200+ yards each week, but his 138 total yards were impressive all the same. Unlike the gaping holes he had against the Colts defense in the opener, Foster had to dance a lot more to find space against the Redskins run defense, but when space was there - or he created it - he exploded up the field. Looking oh so shifty, Foster also turned a short pass into a 50-yard pickup and overall. Almost any production was going to look ordinary in comparison to his stunning opener, but Foster was an effective weapon when the Texans weren't pitching and catching the ball down field. Keep the faith, no doubt.

3) For all the pre-season hype surrounding Jacoby Jones, the Texans best receiver without the last name Johnson continues to be Kevin Walter. Even when AJ went out, Walter had no issue being the main option and he ripped the Redskins for long plays. In all he had grabs of 35, 24 and 21 yards. Plus he hauled in each of his 11 targets; talk about efficiency. Granted Jones had a fine day and also found the end zone, but If Walter is available in your league, get a piece of this high-powered offense now while you can.

4) Number of targets in a game where the QB throws the ball 52 times may not be a true indicator, but Johnson (17), Walter (11) and Jones (9) all saw plenty of looks. Tight end Owen Daniels caught two of his five targets for 24 yards.

5) Had someone in one of my fantasy leagues this past week ask me if I was nervous about Matt Schaub because of how great the Texans ground game looked in their first game. I think I was able to withstand laughing in his face or giving him the old stink eye, but either way, I don't think anyone is going to be asking that again anytime soon.

6) If the Texans had blown this game, botched kick returns by Steve Slaton would have been mentioned as one of the reasons. At least the former starting running back still appears to be the number two back behind Foster with Derrick Ward nowhere in sight. The former Giants and Bucs runner was the only active Texans player not to see the field.

7) It would have been very, very easy for the Texans to not show up for this game, coming off an emotional win over their arch nemesis in week one, especially since the hunger for that win had been building for months. The factor in the 20-7 and 27-10 holes they found themselves in. Instead, the Texans rallied not just for the win, but to make it clear to the rest of the league – and to any remaining doubters – that this squad was in it to win it. Said Johnson after the game, "My thought coming into this week was that I knew that a lot of people was going to be questioning us, asking if we were for real. I think we showed a little something today."

Washington

1) The epitome of the silver lining - How desperate have the Redskins fans been for not just winning, but simply having a viable, exciting and professional product on the field after years of unimaginative offensive schemes and Mickey Mouse coaches? Many are singing a happy tune today even after their team blew a 17-point lead because the passing game was electric and the team overall played inspired, even if ultimately losing football.

2) I have called Donovan McNabb the "best-worst QB" I have ever seen due to his penchant for tossing worm burners or getting into a John Starks in Game 7 of the NBA Finals like accuracy drought. But when he is on like he was for the most part on Sunday, it is a sight to behold. His staggering stats were thisclose to being even greater, but two receivers were tackled at the one after catching a pass and McNabb was oh so close on hitting Joey Galloway on a deep ball late in the game. Too bad his overall weapons are rather mundane, but based on this performance McNabb is a low-end QB1 at worst.

3) Whether it's Clinton Portis or Larry Johnson or John Riggins, the Redskins cannot run the football right now. The backs are getting hit in the backfield. The runners they have are simply too old and no longer have the ability to make anyone miss. Portis is running hard and makes for a potential RB2 play against the Rams this week, but tread lightly overall. In fact, see which owners in your league will bite on his two-TD performance and ignore the 2.5 yards per carry average. As for Johnson, even though I was a pre-season advocate, I am ready to the pull the plug if need be. The best Redskins back to own my very well be rookie free agent Keiland Williams, who is seeing increased playing time and caught four passes against the Texans.

4) Albert Haynesworth was inactive due to an ankle injury. Hmmm. Maybe his presence on the field doesn't make a difference, but considering the Redskins defense gave up a whopping 497 passing yards to Matt Schaub, it would have been nice to see what a consistent pass rush push from the middle would have done to slow that roll. This situation continues to be a nightmare all the way around.

5) Speaking of the defense, safety LaRon Landry is looking much more like a heat-seeking missile, not to mention potential Pro Bowler, now that he has been moved – FINALLY – to his more natural "strong" spot His aggressive style was a poor, poor fit when he was asked to play a reactive center field. He and the rest of the Washington defense make for a fine play against Sam Bradford in week three.

6) Two games into this rookie year, left tackle and fourth overall pick Trent Williams has faced DeMarcus Ware and Mario Williams. Though both of the premier pass rushers made plays against him, Williams more than held his own. Assuming he gets back on the field quickly from a toe injury – the initial fear that he also suffered a knee injury has fortunately been ruled out – Williams is on his way to becoming a fine anchor for this evolving line. However, if he is forced to miss time, McNabb, et al will be running for their lives.

7) Cue up Alanis Morrisette please…Speaking of Williams, one of the key – and ironic - plays took place right after the big man was forced the sideline. Last week the Redskins snatched victory from the jaws of defeat when officials called a holding penalty when Cowboys RT Alex Barron nearly put Redskins OLB Brian Orakpo in a sleeper hold on the final play of the game, negating the game-winning touchdown. In this game with less than 90 seconds in regulation and the Redskins trying to get into game-winning field goal position, McNabb completed a 22-yard pass on 3-and-20 that would have given them the ball just shy of midfield. Instead, Stephon Heyer - the man that replaced Williams – applied a near copycat hold on Mario Williams; the refs too spotted this infraction, wiping out the play.

NFL

1) After watching Michael Vick pass and scat all over the field in his first NFL start since going to the pokey, add me to the list of those that does not see why he should not be the Eagles starting QB in Week three and perhaps beyond. This is not a knock on Kevin Kolb, but the man expected to be Donovan McNabb's replacement is far from entrenched. Vick's mobility is a major asset for a team that has lost key blockers early on and his playmaking skills looked sharp to boot.

2) Drafting Jahvid Best as early as the fourth round in mock drafts dating back to June is looking more and more brilliant with each passing week. Sitting him yesterday for Brandon Jackson, not so much. The Lions rookie will be starting from here on out and is on the verge of becoming an RB1, if he isn't already with four scores in two games.

3) Of all the QB benching that took place in week two, the spots that I am most interested in seeing what transpires are in Carolina and Arizona. I was buying the Jimmy Clausen hype at draft time – not in the top-10, but as a talent – and now he gets a very early chance to show what he can do. Not a fan of throwing rookies into the fire this early, but the Panthers do have a typically strong ground game to take the pressure off of him and Steve Smith has a hstory of running under passes no matter who throws them. Fellow rookie Max Hall also got a taste of the pro game, coming in late during the Cardinals blowout loss to the Falcons. From a winning and losing standpoint, the Cards might be better off making a change at QB, but it would likely not benefit Larry Fitzgerald owners to see the erratic bomber Derek Anderson replaced by the former BYU star.

4) No Jay Cutler. Adios Brandon Marshall. Guess what? The Broncos can still sling the ball. Kyle Orton continues to look might efficient and highly productive, throwing to what is now looking like a deep pool of receivers. Considering the struggles that the likes of Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Brett Favre have had so far, you could do a lot worse than plugging Orton into your fantasy lineup.

5) Reggie Wayne has clearly been the apple of Peyton Manning's eye in the first two weeks while Pierre Garcon has been MIA with only four catches in that span. It might not be fait to call Wayne a sell-high candidate, but let's not forget how his numbers tailed off in the second half last season. At the same time, do not rush to send Garcon to the waiver wire as Manning will spread the ball around and is sure to find the third-year receiver sooner or later.

6) With the news that his groin injury is not serious, Michael Turner can breathe easier. Also, they should not be worried about Jason Snelling stealing too many touches even after his stellar relief effort against the Cardinals. However, those that own Ryan Mathews, who also left his game due to injury, should be a bit more concerned about their prized rookie's situation. Yes, most of Mike Tolbert's yards came after Mathews went out with an ankle injury in the second quarter, but the big back also pounded one in from the goal line in the first, before the injury. The injury does not serious and thus Tolbert is nothing more than a deep reserve for now, but Mathews value will take a hit if he loses out on this close-in bunnies.

7) Kudos to those that kept Hakeem Nicks in their lineup despite the ankle injury and late Sunday start and were rewarded with what was perhaps a game-winning score in garbage time. That's what fantasy football is all about; grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat. For those like my buddy Tim who were on the other end of that...well, the sun did come out today, right?

Monday Morning Observations From the Press Box

Mon, 13 Sep 2010 14:26:00 -0400

Those Sunday night games can make for a late night for any east coaster, especially if you are working said game and do not leave the stadium parking lot until 3am. Now that I am home from the Cowboys-Redskins tilt and have sufficiently downed enough coffee to get the neurons firing, here are my observations - fantasy and otherwise - from the SNF clash and the rest of the NFL

Dallas

1) The Cowboys plan of screens and passes to the flat over runs – especially when the ground game was working – and deep middle passes - when the Redskins were using their backup free safety who can't cover – made no sense. Jason Garrett's stock continues to plummet from his once lofty perch of Cowboys head coach in waiting.
2) It wasn't just that Dez Bryant was targeted a team-high 12 times, but the Cowboys clearly game planned to get him the ball.
3) Injury is the only thing that will hold Miles Austin back from another monster year. Or unless he uses all his energy trying to keep up with the Kardashian's.
4) The Cowboys offensive line is in such shambles that they can't even bench – or cut - Alex Barron – after three holding calls, including the crushing one that negated the winning score on the final play.
5) Plenty of folks already looooove rooting against Dallas and if possible that intensity grew stronger when the TV cameras showed Ohio native and now Miami resident LeBron James in the house rooting on his favorite team.
6) The preseason talk about Marion Barber looking refreshed entering the season were accurate.
7) The preseason concerns that Barber nor Felix Jones would receive enough touches to be a weekly fantasy starter were not removed and perhaps ratcheted up since neither had more than 11 in a game where the Cowboys dominated time of possession.
8) Dallas entered the season as a sexy pick by some to reach the Super Bowl and they were a 3-point road favorite Sunday night. Even though said game was against a hated division rival and thus you can, as they say, throw out the record books when these teams play, it did represent the Cowboys best chance for a road win for a while. Their next road game is at the Texans in week 3, followed by games at the Vikings, Packers, Giants and the Colts. Dallas will likely not be favored on the road again until Week 16 when they travel west to face the Cardinals.

Washington

1) Chris Cooley and Santana Moss each had six grabs, the rest of the team had three total. It will be that way most weeks.
2) DeMarcus Ware got the best of Skins LT Trent Williams on some plays, but it wasn't all bad for the rook, not at all.
3) Clinton Portis' ability to pass block makes him invaluable, or at least Shanahan thinks so, which is all that matters.
4) The winning ugly performance by Donovan McNabb, who alternated laser mid-range throws with low or bounce passes, only enhanced his reputation as the best worst quarterback in the game, maybe ever
5) Devin Thomas looks to be joining the Redskins long list of WR busts, but like Desmond Howard, he is finding his niche as a kick returner
6) The final holding call was accurate, but it also shows that Brian Orakpo's reputation as a premier pass rusher is such that he gets that call.
7) Whether you want to give all the credit to new coach Mike Shanahan or not – and granted the rug was almost pulled out from under them at the buzzer – the Redskins would have lost this game under the previous regime.
8) Say what you want about Albert Haynesworth's attitude, but it continues to make no sense for the Redskins to play him at nose where clearly is not comfortable. Here is the truth that nobody is willing to say; Mike Shanahan is building this team for a 2-3 year (before he flips the keys to his son Kyle). The reason he has not cut Haynesworth is not because of the money. It is because Shanahan's best chance at winning is with 92 on the field and because he knows this to be true, he is embarrassing and taking it out on the big man whenever he can.

NFL

1) No breakout fantasy free agent running backs this week - unless you are in a truly shallow league and Darren McFadden is available - but Packers backup Brandon Jackson is the number one waiver wire pick up this week. Starter Ryan Grant suffered an ankle sprain and has already been ruled out for week two against the Bills, who ranked dead last against the run last season. Jackson has RB2 appeal.
2) No team is as pass-heavy as the Eagles and they might even be more so now that they lost FB Leonard Weaver (knee) and C Jamaal Jackson (triceps) for the season. Those losses will hurt the Eagles pass protection, but will crush their ability to run inside, not to mention around the goal line. All of that could mean that using a mobile QB, say Michael Vick, is their best bet going forward. Big decision for Andy Reid right off the bat, one I think sooner or later ends with Vick under center at the start of games, not just as a change of pace.
3) Arian Foster was the fantasy headliner as the Texans RB went over 200 yards and scored three times against the Colts. In between patting themselves on the back for drafting him, fantasy owners should give a shout out to the group that really made Foster shine, the Texans much improved offensive line. Somewhere David Carr is manically laughing at that thought.
4) The Hakeem Nicks breakout season has begun. Obviously three touchdowns a week won't be the norm, but the talented receiver making big plays each week will be
5) San Fran, let's call that your mulligan. As I queried during the preseason, how can receivers Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree be so highly thought of and yet everyone questions the play of their QB Alex Smith.
6) Considering his combination of production and explosiveness, Chris Johnson might be the most fun fantasy player to own of all-time. Still, didn't his 142 rushing yards and two-TD performance seem rather casual. I mean, who outside of Tennessee is even talking about him today? Maybe the most ho-hum major statistical game ever, especially for week one. Wow is his bar set high.
7) At some point doesn't someone need to remind Brad Childress that he has Adrian Peterson on his roster and he needs to make All Day the focal point of the offense. Let Brett Favre pout if need be, but especially without Sidney Rice, that offense needs to run through Peterson, literally and figuratively.
8) Kudos to Pittsburgh for getting a win over an improved Atlanta squad and doing so without Ben Roethlisberger. However they will now need to play without another starters as LT Max Starks (high anke spain) is out for a month. As for the Falcons, I am still waiting to see with my own eyes this great quarterback named Matt Ryan I keep hearing about. Not saying he can't play, but NFL MVP, really?

NFL Picks: Week 1

Thu, 09 Sep 2010 18:42:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week One of the NFL season...

Fantasy might be what revs up my football passion each and every year - it used to be the Washington Redskins, but if you have lived through the Dan Snyder era like I have, you know that is not so easy anymore - but I loooove making picks!

So while the straight up calls, all the way through the Super Bowl (though I had the Colts), were rather solid (177-97), the actual picks against the spread were literally middle of the road (135-134-5). However, where I once again rose to the occasion was with my "Survivor" pool picks. For the second straight season, I made it all the way to the end with one of my entries (I typically enter two) still in tact. That's right, two straight seasons navigating each and every NFL week and coming out on the other side with a correct call 17 straight times. Of course this means I will get punted by Week 3 in the most painful of ways; Peyton Manning gets knocked out of a game, Randy Moss stops shy of end zone for a game-winning score as a protest to not getting a new deal or the Rams actually win a game in a week I pick their opponent, something they failed to do five times last season.

As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every Tuesday or anytime via ITunes.

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he is all caught up on "Entourage". Could not be happier that the show FINALLY figured how to make Vincent Chase interesting. Have him date a porn star! Genius...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Home Team in CAPS

NEW ORLEANS 27 (-5.5) Minnesota 20 (Thursday): If this NFC Championship rematch was in another week, I might have backed the dog, especially one that is as talented as the Vikings. But I want to see what this offense - and specifically Brett Favre - looks like without Sidney Rice. Plus, defending Super Bowl champions typically win the home opener and I expect the Saints fans - plus that Drew Brees fella - to provide the extra emotional lift.

NY GIANTS 24 Carolina 20 (+6.5): The Panthers throttled the Giants in New York's home finale at the old Meadowlands last season and are back for the regular season debut of the new joint. Expect Tom Coughlin to have his crew off to a good start after a brutal end last season and the Giants pull out the battle of the ground games...Fantasy Angle - I've been out in front of the Ahmad Bradshaw hype, talking about him and putting my money where my mouth is when possible. Against a Panthers defense that was much better against the pass than run, feel comfortable starting Bradshaw as a flex or low-end RB2.

Miami 23 (-3) BUFFALO 13: Since I see the Detroit Lions moving from perennial cellar dweller to borderline .500 team, someone needs to fill the void at the bottom. Enter the Bills, who have the deadly combination of hideous offensive line, inability to stop the run and a QB who does not look like the long-term solution. Miami on the other hand is the most underrated team in the powerful AFC East and they take their first step towards making it back to the postseason, especially now that Chad Henne is ready to breakout...Fantasy Angle - Big day for the Dolphins backfield as the duo of Ronnie Brown (RB2) and Ricky Williams (flex) combine for 250 total yards and two touchdowns against a sorry Bills front seven.

PITTSBURGH 17 (+2) Atlanta 14: If Byron Leftwich were taking snaps for the Steelers this week, I would likely lean towards the Falcons, but I saw enough spark in Dennis Dixon during his one start last season for me think he gets the job done. More importantly, the Steelers defense is once again fully loaded now that Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back from injury...Fantasy Angle - Michael Turner was drafted ahead of Rashard Mendenhall much, much more often than not, but the Steelers runner will be the better fantasy play in this one.

Detroit 26 (+7) CHICAGO 20: The most impactful newcomer in the NFC North this season will be the Lions powerful rookie DT Ndamukong Suh. The presence of the former Nebraska star - along with ex-Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch - will over the course of the season turn the Lions laughable defense into a formidable unit. In the opener, they show glimpses of that future by harrasing Jay Cutler into enough mistakes (shocker) to pull off the road win...Fantasy Focus - Of course, Suh will not even be the most exciting rookie on his own team, not with the electrifying Jahvid Best around. The rookie scat back explodes for one long score and racks up 130+ yards in his NFL debut.

NEW ENGLAND 20 Cincinnati 17 (+4.5): I want to see Carson Palmer be aggressive - and successful - down the field before I am ready to buy into the Bengals re-tuned passing attack. Still, their defense will look better than the one that wore down as last season went along, enough so to keep the game tight before Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski boots the game-winner at the gun...Fantasy Angle - Despite the fact that Wes Welker is not terribly far removed from injuring his ACL and MCL at the end of last season, he is expected to start the season for the Pats. Fantasy owners have bought in, drafting the slot receiver in the 4/5 round range, but the PPR dynamo himself is saying that he feels a "long way off". If you have him already, no need to panic. However, if I had comparable options, I would let him sit this week, especially against a strong Bengals secondary.

TAMPA BAY 21 Cleveland 20 (+3.5): All I can is that at least the opening game hoopla will add some sizzle to what is otherwise a battle of NFL bottom feeders. The home team gets it done, but the Browns cover the line, something they did seven straight weeks to close out 2009. Jerome Harrison is the top fantasy play as he hits triple digits on the ground... Fantasy Angle - of all the young starting QB options, Josh Freeman might be the most overlooked by fantasy owners. We all know Kellen Winslow is top-10 fantasy TE and nearly everyone is ready to buy into rookie wide out Mike Williams breaking out, but they also ignore the strong armed passer throwing them the ball. No, we are not talking fantasy star this year, but Freeman will start showing enough scoring potential to warrant QB2 consideration in short order...

JACKSONVILLE 23 (-3) Denver 17: What symmetry, having Tim Tebow play his NFL game back in the area where he became a star. Look for the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner to get in for a few plays, but even Tebow's magic will not be enough to save the Broncos in this one or from enduring a losing season...Fantasy Angle - it will be the starting QB on the other side that makes the difference. With the Broncos unable to mount a pass rush, Jaguars QB David Garrard will have time to find the diminutive speedster Mike Thomas for a couple of big plays. Both are risky to start this week and Garrard's limited scoring potential makes him little more than a QB2, but Thomas will start becoming a viable WR3 threat by the quarter pole of the season.

HOUSTON 28 (+2) Indianapolis 24: The young kid finally stands up to the school yard bully. If this is going to be the year the Texans finally make the playoffs, they need to beat their division tormentor. Behind the passing of Matt Schaub, they will and they do...Fantasy Angle - once Bob Sanders is done with him, owners might be wondering if they overdrafted Arian Foster this season. The answer - assuming he was not selected in the top-30 or so - is no, but the Colts safety will keep the Texans main runner in check.

TENNESSEE 20 (-6.5) Oakland 12: The Raiders are my sleeper pick to win the AFC West and they will stay tight with the Titans for a while, but as Dan Patrick would say, you can't stop Chris Johnson, you can only hope to contain him...Fantasy Angle - Assuming Titans coach Jeff Fisher sticks to his guns about limiting or sitting talented but unfocused receiver Kenny Britt, look for Nate Washington to receive the bulk of Vince Young's targets, making him a WR3 option this week.

Green Bay 31 (-3) PHILADELPHIA 24: At the start of the preseason, I was believing enough of the Kevin Kolb hype to take the Eagles in this game of potential NFC contenders. Now, well, let's just say I am of the opinion that Kolb will not show Pro Bowl from minute one, though he and the Eagles offense will soar at times. On the other sideline, Aaron Rodgers will be making the first start of his MVP season...Fantasy Angle - Other than Rodgers, there will be no bigger star for the Packers than TE Jermichael Finley, who burns an Eagles defense that typically struggles to cover the tight end position for not one but two touchdowns in what will be one of many dominating performances this season.

San Francisco 26 (-3) SEATTLE 17: The Niners are the class of the NFC West and come up large on the road with more Frank Gore than Michael Crabtree. The Seahawks should start prepping to take University of Washington QB Jake Locker with what is sure to be a very high 2011 pick...Fantasy Angle - Six games this year the Niners defense will face Sam Bradford, Derek Anderson and an aging Matt Hasselbeck. You will likely start the Patrick Willis led unit in all those games and this one is no exception.

ST. LOUIS 20 (+4) Arizona 17: No Kurt Warner. No Anquan Boldin. Maybe no Beanie Wells. All of that equals no win against what is sure to be a fired up Rams squad coming off an NFL-worst 1-15 season. Steven Jackson rushes for over 100 yards and Sam Bradford is good enough in his NFL debut...Fantasy Angle - if Wells is limited or the bad vibes about his knee continue to swirl and force him to the sideline, look for Touchdown Tim Hightower to post RB2 numbers against a Rams defense that allowed 24 rushing scores last season, which tied them with the Raiders for the most in the league.

WASHINGTON 14 (+3.5) Dallas 13: The Donovan McNabb/Mike Shanahan era in Washington begins with a win, in large part due to a defense that held a potent Cowboys offense to 24 points in two games last season. Dallas still managed to win both of those games and they had their with McNabb last season when he was still slinging it for the Eagles, but the veteran QB - with some major defensive help - knocks off the NFC East favorite. Fantasy Angle - Redskins OLB Andre Carter has struggled in previous stints when he played outside in a 3-4 scheme. FS Kareem Moore (knee) will miss the opener, plus others. All of that means Cowboys TE Jason Witten and RB Felix Jones should have plenty of opportunities to shine if their coaching staff gets their weapons into opportunistic scenarios.

Baltimore 17 (+2.5) NY JETS 14: The J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets will drop the first game in their new digs to a Ravens squad that has surely being gearing up for this defensive. Joe Flacco looks sharp in his opener, even against the Jets dynamic defense, while Ray Lewis toys with Mark Sanchez, helping to force the Jets QB into throwing two interceptions... Fantasy Angle - Will the Ravens target Darelle Revis? Reputation aside, yes. The guy missed the entire preseason and the level of his playing shape has to be determined. Still, tread lightly on starting Anquan Boldin, though you should only sit him if the potential statistics for your other options are within close proximity to the former Cards star receiver.

KANSAS CITY 27 (+4) San Diego 24: The Chiefs are still a year or two away from competing in the AFC, but they will show vast improvement over the previous year in their home opener while the Chargers once again come out of the gates slowly...Fantasy Angle - Dwayne Bowe kicks it off with a 5-93-1 line. Solid.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road, so other than in scenarios where I have no other options or say the Colts are at the Rams, I am taking home favs.

Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants. The Titans got off to brutal start last season and it cost them a playoff berth, but they get it done against the Raiders. The Giants are actually the highest spread on the board and while that is odd, I'll roll the dice with them against the one-dimensional Panthers.

Recapping the offseason and a fantasy look ahead, AFC West

Wed, 28 Apr 2010 15:18:00 -0400

With the completion of the NFL Draft and the main portion of free agency in the books, it is time to start review the moves made and start looking ahead to the regular and fantasy seasons. Today I turn to the AFC West, looking at the best draft related move teams made, holes remaining, fantasy sleepers, players that have had a change in value and what is the top question for fantasy owners to ponder with training camp still about two months away. Catch previous posts on the NFC East and stay tuned for the NFC North...

Denver Broncos

Best Use of Draft Pick - Eric Decker:
Unlike his fellow rookie receiver Demaryius Thomas, who still needs to learn how to run NFL quality routes, Decker enters the NFL as a near fully formed receiver. Even though he was often a one-man-gang with the Golden Gophers, Decker has shown the ability to produce (in 2008 he went hauled in 84 passes, scored seven touchdowns and went for over 1,000 yards) and make both the easy and tough catches. To illustrate that last point, here is a great stat from CBSSports.com: Minnesota quarterbacks have targeted Decker for 354 passes during his career and he dropped just three in 45 games (0.085%). In other words, Braylon Edwards he is not. The 6-3 Decker slid in the draft due to a foot injury that cost him time last season and that - plus the normal rookie receiver curve - limits his 2010 fantasy value. Once healthy, he could easily become the Broncos leader in receptions for years to come.

Still in search of - Stability:
From the firing of their Super Bowl winning coach to trading away their two most productive, albeit disgruntled offensive stars, it is almost amazing the Broncos have not completely hit rock bottom over the past 12-18 months. The way the Broncos need to look at the situation is what one of my favorite characters on "Lost" says; whatever happened, happened. The Tim Tebow pick had as much to do with the notion of adding a player that won't rock the boat as much as anything. Almost regardless of record, this season will be a success if the Broncos can simply avoid another confrontational type offseason and use that to build upon going forward.

Fantasy Sleeper - Jabar Gaffney:
So Marshall is gone, now what. Eddie Royal is coming off a brutal season and while he would benefit by moving to the slot, the Broncos have yet to say if this will happen. Brandon Stokely is nothing more than solid depth and the two rookies will likely have at least some level of adjustment. That leaves the Gaffney as the Orton's likely top outside target to start the season. While the nine-year vet has never been anything close to a fantasy star, he did catch at least three passes in 10 games last season, including hauling in 14 receptions for 213 yards in the final game when Marshall was suspended. Gaffney also has a shot to get off to a quick start as the Broncos play porous secondaries (Jags, Seahawks) to start the season and will likely need to throw plenty against the Colts the following week.

Focusing on the fantasy value of - Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn:
In this context, we are talking about keeper value. For any rookie QB, I think the wise course of action is to sit them on the sideline for at least one full season and the case of Tebow, who has much in the way of adjustments to make, that should be the case regardless. I'm with those that question his style in a pro offense, but at some point the Broncos are going to give him a shot. Considering it is in his football DNA to be a runner, I think it's reasonable to assume that he could augment potential so-so passing stats with yards and scores on the ground so in deep dynasty leagues, I might roll the dice if roster space permits (though Jimmy Clausen is in the best situation of the rookie QBs). For Quinn, it is hard to judge because odds are his next legit chance at a starting gig comes on another team as Kyle Orton is the starter and Tebow the long term hope. While I was not a fan of the former Notre Dame star coming out of college, he has still only played in a grand total of 14 games in three seasons and I expect some team (Buffalo? Washington) to make a play for him, maybe as soon as this season.

Biggest Fantasy Question - Without their top playmaker, will Denver be a viable fantasy offense?
Two seasons ago the Broncos had a prolific offense directed by the offensive "genius" Mike Shanahan and staring two up-and-coming young stars in Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall has followed the other two out the door - and do not forget TE Tony Scheffler was also traded - they have the unproven Josh McDaniels, the ordinary Kyle Orton and nothing resembling a Pro Bowl receiver at this moment. One piece they do have to build around is Knowshon Moreno, who had a solid all-around rookie campaign and the Broncos drafted two offensive lineman to help him improve upon his 3.8 ypc average. If Moreno can become the focal point, then Broncos will not need to rely heavily on Orton, which is a good thing as he is a more is less kind of passer. There is enough here to project their offense being fantasy competent most weeks and Moreno has a shot to be a Top-20 player at his position, but there are unlikely any other weekly fantasy stars here unless Royal finds his 2008 mojo.

[More]

For Eagles, do not judge McNabb deal by 2010 alone

Fri, 09 Apr 2010 13:02:00 -0400

Other than perhaps Donovan McNabb's mother, his most ardent supporters and some head in the sand fan who bought an Eagles No.5 jersey just a week ago, nobody could be shocked that Philly's long time QB was sent packing. The real shock waves had to do with the destination, but it had become apparent that the Eagles were ready to move on and...well rebuild is too strong of a sentiment, but how about reload or retool. Guess what, they are right.

I've been studying the NFL Draft for several months now and it has become quite apparent that even though the Eagles are a perennial playoff contender, they are in a transition stage. They have several holes to fill. That in it of itself makes them no different than every team in the league, but not that many true contenders need immediate help at sooooo many positions all at once. Cornerback, safety, linebackers (yes, plural), defensive end, interior offensive line, all of these are problem areas for the Eagles one way or another. Again, other playoff caliber teams have areas where they have their fingers in the roster dyke, but those issues are absorbed or at least blunted by the areas of strength they can fallback on. Other than the passing game, what part of the Eagles would you consider a strength? The pass rush is lacking. The vaunted offensive line did not live up to the hype. The secondary has been the same since Brian Dawkins was cut loose. And even if LeSean McCoy becomes a quality starter, hard to imagine he will be as dynamic as the man he is replacing, Brian Westbrook.

That is where Kevin Kolb comes in. The three-year veteran showed last year in spot duty that he is no tackling dummy, posting consecutive 300-yard passing days while subbing for an injured McNabb, so whatever drop off takes place it will not be cataclysmic. After learning his craft behind the 33-year old McNabb, who for all his value as a QB is not the accurate passer that his replacement appears to be, Kolb is ready to step in and run the show (fantasy owners take note, Kolb may very well be a legit low-end QB1 come draft day). Perhaps as important, the current design of the overall roster is ready for him as well.

For a team that has seemingly been in the playoff hunt for much of the last decade, it is surprising to realize how many contributing young players already litter the roster. While experienced players like 12-year veteran kicker David Akers, CB Asante Samuel and QB Michael Vick are on the roster, only seven players on the entire roster have at seven NFL seasons under their belt and only three are 10+ year vets. Like Kolb, TE Brent Celek is entering his fourth season. Play-making dynamo DeSean Jackson will be starting his third pro campaign while Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy will hope to be even bigger factors in their sophomore seasons. Youth is also being served along the offensive line and throughout the defense. Plus, they have three picks in the top 55 selections in the upcoming NFL draft so even more young talent will be coming on board, which could hasten the departure of Samuel and 12-year vet LB Jeremiah Trotter. In other words, while the Eagles are still trying to make a deep run into the playoffs, they are setting themselves up to do that for years to come. .

Now Kolb, who apparently said he would not talk of extending his stay in Philly without getting the starting gig, gets to grow with the young squad. He now gets a chance to spread his leadership wings on a team with players of comparable age and the others on the 53-man roster do not have to play under the burdens of the past (well, as much as the Philly fan base will allow) and feel like they are caddying for an aging QB with a lot of baggage that comes with him. Change comes, always does, and yet sometimes it takes a true shock to the system to realize it. Dealing away McNabb was that hit in the head moment for the Eagles and their fan base, not a head scratcher.

To be clear, McNabb is far from done as a starting quarterback. He likely gets the short-term laugh as Kolb will surely have some on-the-field growing pains and the Redskins will improve off their horrid 4-12 record from a year ago with stability at signal caller. If McNabb leads the Redskins to the playoffs, especially at the Eagles expense, the Philly brass will be the butt of jokes from fans and the chattering class alike. As the saying goes, sometimes you have to take a step back to move two steps forward.

The Green Bay Packers were in this territory when they moved on from the iconic Brett Favre to the promising Aaron Rodgers. After on down season, they forged on and made the playoffs, becoming a dark horse contender in the process. Now they are poised to romp the NFC North for the foreseeable future with their young stud of a quarterback and have a shot with some luck to truly contend for the Super Bowl year after year. Kolb may not have the same ceiling as Rodgers, but the outlook for the Eagles franchise is quite similar; the future is both now and beyond.

McNabb-Redskins trade analysis

Sun, 04 Apr 2010 23:50:00 -0400

Wow, a true a stunner. Not that long time Philadelphia Eagles QB Donovan McNabb was traded; it had become quite apparent that Andy Reid and the rest of the Eagles organization had come to terms with dealing McNabb, the rumors becoming more fast and furious over the last week or so. The shock was the destination, division rival Washington. Quick look at how this deal effects both squads, on the field, in the draft and for fantasy owners.

Washington - Here is the bottom line for the Redskins; In his return to coaching, Mike Shanahan did not want to wait on developing a quarterback, period. With McNabb in the fold, Shanahan now has a Pro Bowel caliber signal caller and the Redskins have their best QB in years. Is that enough of a reason to make the deal however. To me, McNabb is the best worst QB I've ever seen. He may have never won a Super Bowl and certainly McNabb had his low moments in the City of Brotherly Love, but he reached five NFC Championship games and played in one Super Bowl. He has thrown for 216 touchdowns over 11 seasons, including a combined 45 over the last two seasons, and played at a high level for much of that time.Yet I have never seen a QB not named Jamarcus Russell throw as many one-hoppers over the years as McNabb. His accuracy issues were overlooked back when he still had a lot of gas left in his legs, but his career 59 percent completion percentage is far from elite, especially when he no longer tucks the ball and takes off for big chunks on the ground.

Numbers are not everything and generally speaking, McNabb is a winner. His addition gives the Redskins a much better chance to succeed. Plus, I will give the Redskins brass this much; the NFL these days is about implementing a long term strategy to best compete in short term windows. In other words, a franchise needs to develop a consistent plan of attack when it comes to putting together their roster to give themselves the best chance of succeeding in a sport where rosters are often overhauled every three-to-five years due to salary cap restrictions (this season not withstanding) and the potential for short careers because of the physical nature of the sport.

The thing is, even with the short window approach, if you make a deal for a 33-year old QB like McNabb, you either currently have zero options (hence the Raiders reported interest) or you think you are a QB away from becoming a legit contender. With only two viable starters along the offensive line returning, uncertainty at wide receiver, three aged running backs to work with and a change in defensive schemes (in their case from a 4-3 to a 3-4), it is hard to see how the Redskins fit that profile. This is not the Vikings adding Brett Favre to an overall established roster led by Adrian Peterson, one of the top offensive lines and a ferocious defense wall.

In terms of fantasy, McNabb will have a chance to throw plenty in Shanahan's system. While he does not have the same explosive weapons as he did in Philly, Santana Moss can make plays from time to time and young receivers like Devin Thomas and Fred Davis showed promise toward the end of last season. If the Redskins make 1-2 legit additions across the offensive line to help McNabb stay upright - and they likely will take a tackle with the No. 4 overall pick - and someone from the Clinton Portis/Larry Johnson/Wilie Parker trifecta starts playing like its 2006, then McNabb has a legit shot at being a lower-end QB1. The Redskins have gotten a close look at the top QB prospects in this year's draft and they obviously were not enamored enough by any of them to throw their lot in with them, which seems to be a reasonable approach. As for last year's starter Jason Campbell, I have always felt that his underwhelming run in Washington was due more to circumstances (lack of receivers, coaching changes, etc.) than a limited skill set. Still, it had become apparent that he was not Shanahan's long-term solution at the position and frankly it would be hard to assume that he will 100% be a playoff-caliber signal caller in the league. In time, perhaps, but the clock is already ticking for Shanahan.

They previously acquired Rex Grossman, who played in Kyle Shanahan's system last season, so he will work as the Redskins backup. Dealing Campbell should help the Redskins recoup a draft pick for this season, which they need since they no longer have picks in the second and third rounds, and there are enough desperate teams (Buffalo, Oakland, Carolina) that could have a legit interest in a still relatively young passer with a big arm. Shanahan and the Redskins organization have made their play, which clearly came from the Future is Now playbook. Adding a QB of McNabb's level of competence will be positive for the Redskins offense, just not sure it is enough to have them playing deep into January.

Philadelphia - McNabb had been the Eagles starter since midway through the 1999 season, but Reid stated at the Sunday press conference that the Kevin Kolb era is here. Of course, entering his fourth season - first as starter - will be pressure enough, let alone having to deal with the inevitable comparisons to McNabb and doing it all in front of a fan base that is not known for their patience. On the bright side, Kolb posted strong fantasy numbers in his brief run last season and will have plenty of weapons to work with going forward.

The offense was already dealing with a changing of the guard at running back now that Brian Westbrook is no longer on the roster, but they will not need to pass out name tags in the huddle as Kolb and LeSean McCoy both played prominent roles last season. RB Mike Bell was added this offseason and he should be useful in those oh-so-tricky short yardage plays. WR DeSean Jackson is already one of the premier playmakers in the league, Brent Celek the same among tight ends and WR Jeremy Maclin is coming off a productive rookie campaign. Though Kolb likely will be drafted as a QB2 or rotation fantasy option, he has a chanced to be a special fantasy player in short order if he can avoid the other McNabb legacy and not throw up all over himself.

As for the deal itself, the Eagles wanted to get max value for McNabb and they did, picking up a high second round pick this year and either a third or fourth in 2001. The Eagles now own No. 24, 37 and 55 in this year's draft, giving them ample opportunity to help solve their pressing needs at safety, corner, pass rusher and offensive line. In my mock draft that is set to go online Monday, I had the Eagles taking OG Mike Iuapti (Idaho) with their first pick and safety Chad Jones (LSU) in round two. Now with the fifth pick in the second round, the Eagles target Florida DE Carlos Dunlap or Alabama corner Kareem Jackson. Safeties Taylor Mays and Nate Allen are also now in the mix with the earlier pick.

Historically the franchise has cut bait with their vets before the bottom fell out of their production so they remain consistent, even with the face of their franchise. Of course, when you trade said star player within the division, the payback could be significant, especially if McNabb leads the Redskins to a semi-miraculous playoff run and keeps the Iggles on the outside look in. Can't wait for the inevitable Monday Night game in Philly this year. If nothing else, I know what everyone in town will be talking about for the next six months.

Vikes Negligent if Favre stays away

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 14:30:00 -0400

The definition of "negligence", in a general sense, is as follows: the failure to act with the attentiveness that a rational person would exercise under the same circumstances. Does this not sound exactly like what the Minnesota Vikings will be accused if the sainted Brett Favre does not return to the Twin Cities for football this upcoming season? Vikings coach Brad Childress said last week that he was willing to wait on the wishy-washy Mississippi gunslinger to make a decision on whether he will return to the Twin Cities for another NFL campaign. It is certainly no shocker that once again, Favre is "undecided" about his NFL future and that a decision will come later, almost assuredly after the NFL Draft and beyond the point where most teams will have finalized whatever planned significant deals they are going to make. However, the outrageous part is the passive manner in which the Vikings organization is dealing with the situation involving their legitimate Super Bowl contender of a team. Last season, the Vikings were a contender from the start, opening with a 10-1 record, ultimately winning the NFC North and coming within an overtime possession of reaching the Super Bowl, something they have not done since 1976. Yes, the latest incarnation of the Purple People Eater defense needs help at corner, while the offense needs an infusion of talent up front, specially at guard, and the replacement for Chester Taylor is likely not on the roster. However, they are much better off then the vast majority of teams with studs like Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Steve Hutchinson, Antoine Winfield, The Williams Wall, etc, littering the roster that with a little luck they make the final game this year and at the very least are one of the primary contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Which brings us back to Favre. Because the Vikings are so stacked in many key spots, I was one of those that a year ago thought they could actually survive a season with Sage Rosenfels at quarterback, who in my eyes was a slight upgrade over the Gus Frerotte/Tavaris Jackson combo the team used the year before to reach the playoffs. Obviously, that was a fairly low bar and one Rosenfels might have barely inched over even in the best of times, so the Vikes bold decision to bring in the former Packer star with less than a month to go before Week One was a reasonable gamble. Even if Favre proved washed-up, well, its not like the lackluster alternatives would have done better, or so the rationalizing would have gone. What is happening now is different. Both emotionally and strategically, the Vikes cannot go back to Rosenfels/Jackson if Favre stays away. That is the equivalent of putting all your prom date eggs into the head cheerleader's basket instead of seeking out comparable alternatives. You wait to see whether she will go with you to prom, only her optimistic-sounding "maybe" turns into getting dumped at the altar and you and your rented tux and limo are stuck with that awkward girl from the AV Club who eats her hair and does not suddenly get hot when she takes her glasses off. Sometimes you just have to forge ahead and take what you can get (come on fellas, we have all been there), but that is a lot harder to do if you have already tasted the good life, as it were. If the less desirable option becomes the fait accompli, forget dreaming of some post-prom excitement. Now you are just hoping to keep down the case of Milwaukee's Best you just inhaled to help you forget about what could have been. That is what it will feel like to Vikings fans if Favre finally hangs 'em up. Right now, the Vikes have some moves to make if they knew Favre was ready to begin his post-NFL life. Those moves include dealing with the Philadelphia Eagles, who, depending which way you want to look at their three-headed QB scenario, are either listening to offers for Donovan McNabb or actively searching them out. The Eagles have said they want at least a mid-second round pick, which the Vikes do not have, but they do possess the 30th pick overall. As fleeting as NFL title runs can be, wouldn't the Vikes be willing to part with their first round pick for at least a two-year window to make the Super Bowl? I'm guessing if the Vikes sent #30 to the Eagles for McNabb and say a third rounder, this gets done and makes sense for both sides. Maybe the Eagles settle for the Vikes second rounder with another later round or future pick tacked on. When you factor in that Childress worked with McNabb when both were with the Eagles, thus helping make the transition a smooth one, the possible deal makes even more sense. And yet, the Vikes are waiting, in part, because they are now a featured player in the "will he or won't he" drama that is Brett Favre. And this is why the Favre backlash has become rampant in recent years. The diva behavior of putting yourself above the other members of the team, holding them hostage to your whim, is more than most sports fan without an emotional tie to the situation can stomach. Maybe he has already told the team that he will indeed return, but only after the dog days of training camp have wound down. Of course, that would not exactly be a move I'd equate with being a team leader, something every Favre apologist wants to say he truly is. Still, can we even blame Favre at this point? I mean, him sitting out yet again is about as shocking as Ricky Martin finally coming out of closet. As much as I have grown to loathe all things Favre-ian over the years, there is no denying that the Mississippi gunslinger was all that and then some last season. In a movie world, of course the team waits on the White Knight to come back and save the day, but this is not a Hollywood version of fantasy football. This is a multi-million dollar organization with loyal fans that are still waiting for their first taste from the cup of Super Bowl glory after all these years. If Favre decides his day-to-day future this fall involves riding his lawnmower on his Kiln, Mississippi lawn, then the Vikings fans have every right to revolt, but not against the QB. Instead their ire should be directed toward the front office and coaching brass for not maximizing their chances of finally quenching that insatiable thirst.

Best Bets for NFL Championship Games...and Super Bowl

Sun, 24 Jan 2010 16:49:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down during the NFL's Championship Weekend....

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he has stopped licking his wounds after a rough start to the playoff prognosticating. ...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will be back on February 2nd, previewing the Super Bowl and discussing the latest NFL news and rumors as they pertain to the fantasy world. Down the line we will have shows previewing the Super Bowl and breaking down NFL Free Agency, the combine and NFL Draft.

Last week: 1-3 straight, 2-2 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 175-96 straight; 134-133-4 spread

INDIANAPOLIS 20 NY Jets 13 (+8.5): Based on what the Colts have done this year - undefeated in every game they "tried" to win, 11-5-1 against the spread - it is hard to pick against the, especially at home. Nobody is a better tactical assassin than Peyton Manning and their defense is vastly underrated. And yet...the Jets keep games tight. Their defense will force the Colts into long drives, something Manning does anyway, and the clock will run and run. Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will do that as well when the Jets are on offense, but the Colts lack of a ground game makes their offense one-dimensional. In the end, the Jets will not have the same overall amount of success they have had the past two weeks as Manning grinds it out with TD passes to Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney sacks Mark Sanchez at least once and the Colts survive.

NEW ORLEANS 31 (-3) Minnesota 27: After thinking about siding with the Vikes running game and pass rush earlier this week, the time has come to get on the Saints bandwagon. Yes, Adrian Peterson has his best game in weeks and Jared Allen will harass Drew Brees at times. And yet...the home crowd will make the difference. Brett Favre has avoided the mistakes that have plagued him in the latter stages of his career, but a few more pop up as the noise takes away the split second advantage an offense normally enjoys. Drew Brees and Sean Payton will come up with ways to expose rookie MLB Jasper Brinkley in the passing game, Reggie Bush makes at one jaw-dropping play and Jabari Greer does his best Darrelle Revis impression on Sidney Rice.

*****SUPER BOWL pick

INDIANAPOLIS 31 (-4.5) New Orleans 23: The East Coast snow has been brutal and caused havoc with my world, but not my mind. Colts simply have too much on both sides of the ball compared to the Saints. Unless Reggie Bush or someone else on special teams makes 2-3 big plays, I can't see the Saints coming out on top...

Fun Props: Austin Collie will score...more points in 2H than 1H...Joseph Addai's longest run over 11.5 yards...Peyton Manning to throw a TD in 2Q...shortest TD over 1.5 yards

Best Bets for NFL Divisional Round Weekend

Fri, 15 Jan 2010 13:07:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down during the NFL's Divisional Round Weekend....

Last week: 0-4 straight, 1-3 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 174-93 straight; 132-131-4 spread

Arizona 38 (+7) NEW ORLEANS 35: I am nervous about what kind of energy the Cards will have, at least early on, playing on a short week after coming off an emotionally draining win. The latest reports suggest Anquan Boldin is unlikely to play this week, though Steve Breaston and Early Doucet picked .up the slack last week. Plus, you know Drew Brees is licking his chops after watching Aaron Rodgers shred the Cards defense last week. And yet...it is hard to get behind the Saints after the way they stumbled down the stretch. If Brees and company can get their early season mojo back, they will be a tough out for anyone. Still, their defense is equally inept UNLESS the offense starts fast and gives them a lead. The Cards are a Jekyll and Hyde team, but Kurt Warner looks to have the eye of the tiger yet again and their defense will do just enough to help...

Dallas 27 (+3) MINNESOTA 21: Would like to take the Vikes and they have the game breakers to score plenty, especially if Percy Harvin is past his recent migraine headache issues. The home crowd noise should aid Jared Allen and the Vikes pass rush. Brett Favre has certainly played very well this year and the Vikes offense is not the one-dimensional attack the Cowboys faced the last two weeks. And yet...they simply had too many holes exposed down the stretch. The offensive line, considered the best in the game in some circles not long ago, has been having a hard time opening up holes for Adrian Peterson and the ground game and that job will not be made easier this week facing a red hot Cowboys front seven. The secondary has been allowing big chunks in the passing game and CB Antoine Winfield remains limited with his foot injury, something Tony Romo and Miles Austin are sure to take advantage of. Plus, the Felix Jones factor adds an entire other dimension the Cowboys did not have for stretches of the season. The home field makes this a tough one to call, but the Boys are simply playing better right now...

INDIANAPOLIS 28 (-6) Baltimore 17: These teams met earlier this season and the Colts eked out a road win, their seventh straight in the series. Ray Rice racked up 135 total yards in that earlier contest, something he has a great chance to do again this week as he and fellow back Willis McGahee face the Colts 24th ranked rush defense. And yet...their secondary is beat up and unlike Tom Brady last week, Peyton Manning enters the game healthy and with all his weapons. Even if the Ravens take Reggie Wayne out, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie will have open space to work. Also, the Colts defense is often overlooked, but they are playing at high level and should be able to flummox Joe Flacco...

SAN DIEGO 20 NY Jets 14 (+7): Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing game have been unstoppable most of the season and even if Darrelle Revis silences Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd will get theirs. if they get up by two scores, it will be very hard for Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez, who was allowed to throw with comfortable down and distance last week, to overcome And yet...the Jets have the better offensive line and ground game. They have the better overall defense, even if they did give up big yards to Cedric Benson last week. They have more swagger, certainly in the coaching matchup if not across the board. Yes, I am a little concerned I am giving the Jets too much credit because they played last week and the Bolts were off, but I also believe the Sanchez factor will reveal itself in the fourth quarter and the Chargers move on. Gates is the hero in the passing game and Darren Sproles once again comes up large in the postseason, making two big plays, one on special teams...

Best Bets for NFL Wildcard Weekend

Fri, 08 Jan 2010 12:37:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down during the NFL's Wildcard Weekend....

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to worry about trying to get Jim Zorn fired. ...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will be live this week, breaking down the NFL Playoffs and discussing the latest NFL news and rumors as they pertain to the fantasy world. Down the line we will have shows previewing the Super Bowl and breaking down NFL Free Agency, the combine and NFL Draft.

Last week: 13-6 straight, 8-10-1 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 174-89 straight; 131-128-4 spread

CINCINNATI 17 (-2) NY Jets 13: Both teams want to do the same thing - run the football and play tough defense - but the Jets are executing much better right now. While the Bengals will get Cedric Benson back, the Jets have their own top notch RB in Thomas Jones, who posted career-highs in rush yards and touchdowns and he runs behind arguably the best offensive line in football. The Bengals will get run-stuffing DT Domata Peko back, but the Jets sport top ranked overall defense. The Bengals have the best receiver in this game, but Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Jets uber-corner Darrelle Revis. And yet...QB Mark Sanchez starts for the Jets, who seem to be scoring and winning in spite of the rookie passer throwing for less than 155 yards in five of his last six starts. The playoffs are not historically kind to first year QBs and Sanchez has not looked nearly as comfortable in the pocket as Joe Flacco did for the Ravens in a similar spot last season. Carson Palmer is not exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but I prefer the veteran in the postseason, Factor in the emotion from the tragic loss of Chris Henry and the wife of DC Mike Zimmer and the Bengals bounce back at home behind Benson's 7th 100-yard game of the season.

Philadelphia 27 (+4) DALLAS 24: Heading into Week 17, the Eagles were my pick to be the NFC Champ, but they looked nothing like a top notch contender last week against the Cowboys, who used a dominating performance from their defensive front seven and a strong run game to control the game. The loss of Eagles center Jamaal Jackson is magnified against the Cowboys front seven, and the Eagles are mistakenly trying to work Brian Westbrook back into the lineup. And yet...they had their opportunities in the deep passing game last week but the inconsistent/Mr.Hyde version Donovan McNabb showed up. The Eagles, particularly against this Cowboys team with power lines on both sides of the ball, need to play with the lead so McNabb needs to hit big plays, especially early. I say he does, finding Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin for scores in that order. Tony Romo does not lose the game for the Boys, but the Eagles blitz causes problems and the early lead takes a heavy dose of Marion Barber off the table. Plus, according to Ron Jaworski, Andy Reid is 7-0 in first round playoff games. Let the moaning and groaning about the Cowboys franchise begin!

NEW ENGLAND 21 Baltimore 20 (+3): We all know about the loss of Wes Welker, but for at least one week, the Pats will not miss him, much. While the Ravens likely double and at times triple team Randy Moss to help cover up for their leaky secondary, Julian Edelman hauls in 10 passes for 107 yards. While Fred Taylor takes over as the primary ball carrier, Kevin Faulk is the most productive back in this one and even Ben Watson shows a pulse with a couple of grabs. Plus the Pats get their full arsenal of defensive linemen back as they try to remain undefeated at home this season. And yet...the Ravens ground game is clicking and will keep the game close by controlling the clock. Plus, never, ever, never count out a Ray Lewis defense, Sadly for him, the secondary is simply too banged up to stop the Pats when needed and the Bill Belichicks survive and advance.

Green Bay 27 (+1) ARIZONA 20: The NFC has never been more wide open than it is the year and a legitimate case can be made for all six squads to advance to the Super Bowl. Both squads in this game have high-octane passing attacks and playmakers on defense that have shown the ability to step up when called upon. And yet...while the Packers are rolling into the playoffs with a 7-1 stretch, the Cards have been rather pedestrian over the last month, including losing to the Niners and struggling to beat the lowly Lions. Even if we give them a pass for laying down against the Packers last week, it doesn't change the fact that Packers defense and offensive line have been much improved over the second half of the season. Everyone talks about Aaron Rodgers - and rightfully so - but it is the growth in these two areas that has turned the Packers from a 4-4 squad to the hottest team in the conference. Rodgers throws for two scores, Grant breaks a for a long TD and Charles Woodson keeps Larry Fitzgerald in check. Next up, WWIII with Brett Favre on deck...

Best Bets for Week 17 of the NFL season

Fri, 01 Jan 2010 23:26:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 17 of the NFL season...

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to worry about his fantasy lineup. Seriously, folks that play into Week 17, how do you stand it? After winning with Joseph Addai or Philip Rivers or Randy Moss all year you are now subjected to deciding between Mike Tolbert and Sammy Morris (Tolbert) at RB. Good luck out there...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will continue with podcasts the two weeks as we wrap up the 2009 season plus rank our top choices for those venturing into playoff fantasy leagues. We will also talk about the NFL playoffs, offseason rumors and later in the off-season preview the NFL Draft.

Last week: 10-6 straight, 8-8 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 161-83 straight; 123-118-3 spread

BUFFALO 23 (-8) Indianapolis 14: The Colts may not play their starters even as long as they did last week, but Donald Brown should rack up yards with extended reps against the Bills dead last run defense...

CAROLINA 24 (-7) New Orleans 13: Peter King is reporting that Drew Brees will be the Saints #3 QB on Sunday. That's enough for me to take the suddenly hot Panthers, even without Steve Smith.

Jacksonville 24 (+1.5) CLEVELAND 17: If Jerome Harrison could throw as well as he has been running of late, the Browns would have a chance since the Jags secondary is on the brutal side. Alas, Derek Anderson will be doing the throwing and that is rarely a good thing...

Philadelphia 30 (+3) DALLAS 27: Losing C Jamaal Jackson cannot be understated, especially going up a stud NT like Jay Ratliff, but the Eagles are scoring at will and will continue that trend en route to clinching the division title.

Chicago 28 (-3) DETROIT 17: Matt Forte makes his fantasy owners bang their collective heads into a wall repeatedly when he bangs out his second 100+ yard rush game of the year. It will be hide the knives time when he scores twice, once by land, once by air.

HOUSTON 27 (-8) New England 16: The Pats are another team expected to rest their stars, while the Texans have much to play for, though their playoff hopes will come up short.

MIAMI 23 (+3) Pittsburgh 21: Whatever has been missing for the Steelers much of the second half continues against the steady Dolphins, who pull the "upset" behind another 300 yard game from Chad Henne.

MINNESOTA 38 (-9) NY Giants 24: The Vikes offense had it going late on MNF and continue that run against Giants defense that can't stop anyone.

San Francisco 20 ST. LOUIS 13 (+8): The Rams are one step closer to winning the Ndamukong Suh draft sweepstakes, though don't be shocked if the allure of adding the Golden Domer QB Jimmy Clausen to pep up a moribund fan base becomes a much discussed option.

TAMPA BAY 24 (+1.5) Atlanta 21: Three straight wins down the stretch make the Bucs faithful feel better about their head coach and young QB. Josh Freeman throws two scores against the Falcons 28th ranked pass defense.

Green Bay 24 (+3.5) ARIZONA 17: Considering these teams may play each other in the wildcard round, expect a heaping dose of Vanilla schemes all the way around.

Kansas City 27 (+11) DENVER 24: Jamaal Charles, the hottest RB not named Chris Johnson, shreds a weakening Broncos run defense for 150 yards and two scores as the Chiefs knock the division rivals from the list of playoff candidates. Without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos offense simply can't get the job done.

Baltimore 27 (-10) OAKLAND 14: With a playoff spot on the line, the scheduling gods hook the Ravens up with Charlie Frye and the Raiders. Nuff said.

SAN DIEGO 26 (3.5) Washington 14: Billy Volek and Mike Tolbert do their best Philip Rivers and LT2 impression against a Redskins team that has packed it for the season and Norv Turner won't call off the dogs against his former employer. Where are Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley with their "gone fishing" routine when you need it.

Tennessee 31 (-4) SEATTLE 21: Chris Johnson left, Chris Johnson right, Chris Johnson mugging for the cameras after not one, not two, but...ok, two scores is plenty, as is the 165 total yards that goes along with it.

NY JETS 24 Cincinnati 17 (+10): If the Pats lose, the Bengals are the three seed with a win. Whether that is enough of a reason to expose Carson Palmer or another key starter to injury remains to be seen, but they do enough early to keep the game close.

Bonus College Picks...

Fiesta Bowl: TCU 34 (-7.5) Boise State 24

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech 31 (-4) Iowa 26

National Championship: Alabama 24 (-4) Texas 17

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 17: gulp...San Diego (Ok, if you have been following my picks all season then you very well may still be alive in your Survivor pool, as I am with one of my two entries. Denver is the most logical pick on the board, but I suspect most of the remaining players will take them and the Brandon Marshall issue has internal strife written all over it. The Jets are next in line, but I don't trust Mark Sanchez in a big game. So I'm taking the Bolts against a Redskins squad that has been rolled the last two weeks at home)

UPDATED: Not that it matters since the Chargers came through with the win, but for full disclosure I ended up taking the Panthers this week. Once I heard Mark Brunell was starting against the suddenly hot Panthers, I bounced...congrats to all those that "survived" all the way as well...

Week 16: Green Bay (the Cardinals are the safer play against the Rams, but being that it s a division game and for other strategic reasons unique to my game, I'm going with the Pack)

Week 15 - Houston (Another week, another pick against the Rams. All things being equal, I would take Denver, but need them for Week 17 in case Chargers have nothing to play for)

Week 14 - Tennessee (If Kerry Collins starts and I get spooked, will jump to the Pats. Otherwise, Titans roll)

Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)

Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Best Bets for Week 16 of the NFL season

Fri, 25 Dec 2009 14:29:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 16 of the NFL season...

As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to print off Mapquest directions for Santa...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...

Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will continue for the next three weeks as we wrap up the 2009 season plus rank our top choices for those venturing into playoff fantasy leagues. We will also talk about the NFL playoffs, offseason rumors and later in the off-season preview the NFL Draft.

Last week: 8-8 straight, 5-9-2 spread

Overall (thru Week 14): 151-77 straight; 115-110-3 spread

TENNESSEE 27 (-3) San Diego 23: Might as well have the Fantasy MVP (year-to-date that is. Don't let us down CJ) lead off the Week 16 action and do so against the hottest team in football. Despite the chilly Nashville air, look for plenty of points with one score - plus 160+ total yards - to come from the man who would torch Ted freekin Ginn in a race. In addition to Johnson, Bo Scaife and Nate Washington catch TDP's from Vince Young while Rod Bironas bangs home two field goals. On the other side, Antonio Gates gets not one, but two touchdowns as the Chargers take advantage of injuries to the Titans linebacking corps. Nate Kaeding drills three kicks, one from 50+, but the Titans keep their playoff hopes alive this week, clinch a spot in the finale...

GREEN BAY 31 (-14) Seattle 13: The fortunes of these teams are heading in the opposite directions, like Justin Timberlake compared to the rest of N'Sync. Nobody wants to face the Aaron Rodgers-led passing attack in the playoffs, so imagine how little resistance the Seahawks 29th ranked pass defense will put up. The Packers defense has been better of late, Big Ben's 500+ passing yards game aside, and should have Matt Hasselbeck running for his life. (ok, that Big Ben total is way too much to ignore, but the Pack won't face a team that desperate the rest of the way, even in the playoffs)...

CLEVELAND 14 Oakland 13 (+3): And to think just a couple of years ago the Browns were choosing between Derek Anderson and Charlie Frye for their starting QB gig. Now both will do their best not to set the league's passing game back 20 years. With all the expected handoffs, this will feel more like a 1970's Oklahoma-Nebraska game. Outside of the backs, nothing, literally nothing, to see here...

CINCINNATI 27 Kansas City 16 (+13): Cedric Benson left, Cedric Benson right, then Larry Johnson running out the fourth quarter clock against his former team.

ATLANTA 21 Buffalo 14 (+9): Those Michael Turner owners that remain alive for fantasy glory are sure to be thinking "only if" their man was a viable play this week (which he's not, even if active. too risky), how great of a play he would be against the Bills 32nd ranked run defense. Jason Snelling will make for a reasonable facsimile, though Fred Jackson will be the productive RB in the game.

MIAMI 26 Houston 24 (+3): The edge in this defacto playoff elimination game goes to the team that can run the ball consistently. Hope I do not need to explain which side that is. While Ricky is running for the Dolphins, Chad Henne makes enough plays in the passing game to counter another big week from the Matt Schaub-to Andre Johnson connection.

NY GIANTS 27 (+7) Carolina 17: Even if the Giants make the playoffs, they need a stepped up running game to keep those high-powered offenses they will be facing off the field. Against the Panthers less-than-ordinary run defense, they feed Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw the ball plenty, though the backup is the better fantasy threat yet again...Scariest fantasy receiver of the week, Steve Smith. No, the other one who used to be "Steve Smith" before the Giants version became the more notable version much of the season. The Panthers' Smith is red-hot and faces a Giants secondary that gives up big plays in the passing game.

NEW ORLEANS 34 (-14) Tampa Bay 17: Admire the effort, but the Saints will benefit from the Week 15 loss. Too bad their defense simply cannot compete with the big boys regardless, but none of that matters against the overmatched Bucs. Drew Brees throws for three scores, Josh Freeman tosses three picks.

NEW ENGLAND 24 Jacksonville 17 (+7.5): Tom Brady, buddy, your fantasy owners are counting on you. The last two weeks, you have been more Brady Quinn than Golden Boy with back-to-back sub-200 yard outings, but the scheduling gods have hooked you up with the Jags swiss cheese secondary. With your defensive front weakened by injuries, MJD will make the game interesting, but this is your week. Make it count.

PITTSBURGH 23 (-2.5) Baltimore 20: Ray Rice keeps on keeping on and Joe Flacco will get his in a game that features more passing than normal but these squads, but those Three Rivers guys win it in the end. That final play TD last week kept the Steelers in the wildcard hunt and Ben Roethlisberger has another bomb or two in his cannon of an arm against a Ravens secondary that will play without their top corner.

PHILADELPHIA 26 (-7) Denver 17: With the Eagles passing game clicking and their run defense effectively stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will be up to Kyle Orton to keep the Broncos in the game. He will succeed for a while, but Asante Samuel gets a pick-six late to seal the deal.

ARIZONA 34 (-14) St. Louis 14: This should be a call your final number type game for the Cards offense with Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells and Anquan Boldin making their fantasy owners quite happy.

SAN FRANCISCO 24 Detroit 13 (+12.5): Alex Smith, top-10 fantasy QB in Week 16. No, pigs are not flying outside my window, but passes will be against the Lions horrid pass defense.

INDIANAPOLIS 20 NY Jets 16 (+5.5): Oh, I still think the Colts will sit some of their starters in the second half, but Peyton Manning will generate more offense in two quarters than Mark Sanchez in four. Keep checking the reports out of Indy, but outside of Dallas Clark (position scarcity and all), I would have a hard time using any of the Colts players because of the possible/likely resting...

Dallas 31 (-6.5) Washington 17: My sometimes day job sent me out to Redskins Park Thursday to cover the home team's Xmas Eve practice. They talked a good game about not giving up and the one time top-5 defense hopes to find their early season form, but the defensive line is beat up and the secondary beatable. Miles Austin, Marion Barber and Tony Romo owners, fear not.

Minnesota 24 Chicago 20 (+7): Heard Adam Schefter bring up a stat talking about Brett Favre's inability to win in the cold. Basically Favre has not won a game with the opening temp 39 degrees or lower since the game where Michael Strahan set the sack record by taking the QB down. If the Bears offense actually had any sense of life, that streak would continue, but Adrian Peterson finds the end zone twice for the win.