Ben's Brain - Fantasy Football

Mocking The Draft

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 16:20:00 -0400

Mock drafting season is just about over, so it is time to put on the adult-sized jersey and start making picks that count. This month, on behalf of FFToolbox.com, I participated in the influential FanEx Expert League draft. It took approximately three weeks to complete – people claim to have lives and work - but as far as I know, everyone made it out in one piece (though I felt like punching someone when they started hoarding tight ends as I was waiting and waiting for them to fall). Among the other participants included USA Today, Fantasy Football Index and Fantasy Sharks.

The entire draft is listed below with my overall analysis and rationale for my selections at the end of each round. Plus there are various links included to previous fantasy football articles and discussion to help add additional and detailed insight.

League: 12 teams, points per reception (PPR)
Rounds: 20
Lineup: QB – 1, RB -2, WR – 3, TE -1, K -1, Def – 1, Flex -1 (RB/WR/TE)

As I mentioned in this Fantasy Football Drafting Philosophy article, learning your league rules is step number one when it comes to developing a specific drafting strategy. Based on the requirements of starting three receivers with a chance for a fourth as a flex, my goal is to have three on the roster by the fifth or sixth round. That will also be around the time the viable options begin to dwindle. Waiting on QB and TE is also part of the plan, though I will take the top players early if the value is right. As for running back, I would love to get a top dog early, but picking 12/13 means that going WR/WR is a distinct possibility. Either way, will load up on RB depth in rounds 5-10…ok, BREAK!

Round 1
1) Chris Johnson, RB, Ten
2) Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
3) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jax
4) Ray Rice, RB, Bal
5) Frank Gore, RB, SF
6) Michael Turner, RB, Atl
7) Andre Johnson, WR, Hou
8) Steven Jackson, TB, Stl
9) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
10) Brandon Marshall, WR, Mia
11) Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind
12) Randy Moss, WR, NE - FFToolbox

1st round analysis: I anticipated taking at least one WR with one of my wraparound picks, but never thought it would be Moss. And if that situation did occur, would have also assumed it was because QBs and RBs jumped ahead of him, not four receivers, wow. I rank Moss second behind A. Johnson (actually, I do not even have Marshall or Wayne in my top-5 among wide outs). Reports have Moss rocking training camp and doing it in the last year of contract. Giddy up… Overall top five went as expected, though you can make arguments for Rice over MJD…Turner has been going behind Andre Johnson in several mocks I have done, but I am largely fine with the decision here, even in PPR. There are just not a lot of frontline backs…

13) Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pit - FFToolbox
14) Roddy White, WR, Atl
15) Miles Austin, WR, Dal
16) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car
17) Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
18) Jamaal Charles, WR, KC
19) Ryan Mathews, RB, SD
20) Cedric Benson, RB, Cin
21) Marques Colston, WR, NO
22) Greg Jennings, WR, GB
23) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
24) DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi

2nd round analysis: Since this is a PPR league, I could easily justify taking another receiver in the second, especially since Austin, Johnson and White are available. Also, this format is not ideal for a lightly used pass catcher like Mendenhall, who will also be without his starting QB for at least the first four games and his projected starting RT all year. So why did I go with the Steelers bruising back?

- he is one of the few starting RBs that essentially has the job to himself
- Even though there is more RB depth than ever because of all the RBBC situations, I did not want to wait until 36/37 to get my first RB (though I would have if Mendenhall was gone)
- Pittsburgh has stated that they intend to run more than they did during the pass-happy and non-playoff reaching 2009 season
- Oh, and he is good. Some questions for sure, but not enough to have me pass.

Call me risk-adverse if you must, but Mendenhall is in a great situation and his potential for major yards and scores on the ground outweighs the downside…and look at the backs that came after him. Williams is a stud, but so is his timeshare partner Jonathan Stewart. With Thomas Jones looming large in KC, I have Charles lower on my draft board. Mathews is a better value in the back half of round two than the top…give me Calvin J, Austin and Jennings (personal preference on the latter) over White and Colston…Rodgers is my top QB this year as well…

25) Steve Smith, WR, NYG
26) Anquan Boldin, WR, Bal
27) Drew Brees, QB, NO
28) Peyton Manning, QB, Ind
29) LeSean McCoy, RB, Phi
30) Steve Smith, WR, Car
31) Shonn Greene, RB, NYJ
32) Ryan Grant, RB, GB
33) Pierre Thomas, RB, NO - FFToolbox
34) Wes Welker, WR, NE
35) Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den
36) Beanie Wells, RB, Ari

3rd round analysis – The Panthers Steve Smith was the last of the elite receivers I was targeting, so my attention turned towards the various RB2 options. Three names were on my "get him" list and two of them were snatched up at 31-32, so it was time to be bold. In order to secure the best back left in Thomas, I dealt my 9th round pick (108 overall) for an 11th (125) so I could move up three spots in the third. Talent is not the question with Thomas, just touches, and I am expecting an increased number of them for him this year (the pick was actually made before potential goal line vulture Lydell Hamilton went down with a season-ending injury)…even though you and I literally caught as many passes as Greene did last year I love his potential even in this format (and no, not worried about the hovering LaDainian Tomlinson, a.k.a. LT2)…not getting the love for McCoy. Yes, he plays in a high-scoring offense and its job to lose. However he did little with his opportunities a year ago when Brian Westbrook went down. The Eagles brought in Mike Bell to be the goal line option. Oh, and Andy Reid likes running as much as he likes shaving his mustache.

37) Michael Crabtree, WR, SF - FFToolbox
38) Reggie Bush, RB, NO
39) Tony Romo, QB, Dal
40) Matt Forte, RB, Chi
41) Dallas Clark, TE, Ind
42) Matt Schaub, QB, Hou
43) Tom Brady, QB, NE
44) Philip Rivers, QB, SD
45) Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia
46) Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG
47) Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
48) Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cin

4th round analysis – The debate at 37 was to get one of the remaining high-end receivers or grab a star QB. Either way there was no logical reason to expect that level of player to be available when I pick in the fifth, but the difference for me was the depth at QB. If I do not get a top-7 QB, then I am likely to wait 2-3 rounds – at least – before selecting one. On the flip side, my board shows a significant receiver drop off coming up quicker than Chris Johnson turning the corner at the line of scrimmage. Receiver it is…No issue with any of the receivers picked in this round, but I like Crabtree ripping through the weak NFC West secondaries…Would like Rivers even more if the Charges offense was not dealing with multiple holdouts, but the mouthy QB backs up his talk with big numbers on the field. He makes his wide receivers, not the other way around.

49) Antonio Gates, TE, SD
50) Vernon Davis, TE, SF
51) Jahvid Best, RB, Det
52) Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
53) Jason Witten, TE, Dal
54) Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Jax
55) Jermichael Finley, TE, GB
56) Sidney Rice, WR, Min
57) Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
58) C.J. Spiller, RB, Buf
59) Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car - FFToolbox
60) Brent Celek, TE, Phi

5th round analysis: In mock draft after mock draft this year, the fifth round has been the home to the tight end run, so no surprises that five went here. While I have Clark at the top, especially in PPR, I cannot argue against someone taking any of the top-5, with Celek and Tony Gonzalez not far behind. If I can work up the nerve to take a guy who has only a handful of starts compared to vets like the aforementioned Clark, Gates and Witten, then Finley is the guy I want and will take…Sims-Walker was one of my correct calls last year, but now he will face the opposition's best corner each week. I like the talent, but will tread lightly…as you can see I moved up one whole spot, swapping picks in the 5th and 6th. Yes, I was working the phones (ok, really just email) to secure even the minutest advantage, but getting a stud like Stewart at this point is hardly trivial. To be fair, "Daily Show" had yet to resume practicing (heel) when I selected him, but he missed much of the previous preseason and still rocked for 1,100 yards and 10 scores when it mattered. The injury does not look like a long-term issue and since I rank him closer, if not inside the top-15 among backs, you know I loved getting him as the 25th RB off the board. Only downside is I missed out on Celek, but as you will see, I did not have a problem waiting on tight end this draft.

61) Hines Ward, WR, Pit
62) Percy Harvin, WR, Min - FFToolbox
63) Clinton Portis, RB, Was
64) Mike Wallace, WR, Pit
65) Jay Cutler, QB, Chi
66) Terrell Owens, WR, Cin
67) Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl
68) Thomas Jones, RB, KC
69) Justin Forsett, RB, Sea
70) Jeremy Maclin, WR, Phi
71) Johnny Knox, WR, Chi
72) Marion Barber, RB, Dal

6th round analysis: The trade up also caused me to miss out on Ward, but I like Harvin. That pick took place while he was out with the migraine, but before Sidney Rice had surgery. Both of those factors were obviously considered (Favre having not signed yet was not), but the guy is a stud and the potential of Rice missing time was enough to take the "risk", especially with the receiver pool thinning. Fine taking the chance on him as my WR3, but not if my two…Very high on Wallace, who was the receiver runner up to Harvin. Maclin is another WR I like around here as well…On the flip side, even though I am still sans QB and TE, neither Cutler nor Gonzalez was on my radar. I'm just not buying Cutler's decision-making even with the help from new OC Mike Martz. The waning interest in Gonzo comes from him coming off a career-low 10.4 ypc and my lack of fantasy confidence in Matt Ryan.

73) Felix Jones, RB, Dal
74) Santana Moss, WR, Was
75) Darren McFadden, RB, Oak
76) Donald Driver, WR, GB
77) Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
78) Robert Meachem, WR, NO
79) Michael Bush, RB, Oak
80) Fred Jackson, RB, Buf
81) Dez Bryant, WR, Dal
82) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Sea
83) Eli Manning, QB, NYG
84) Kevin Kolb, QB, Phi - FFToolbox

7th round analysis: With three RB and WR on the roster already, I was fine with going with Kolb, who is both overhyped and possibly undervalued at the same time. I still plan to pair him with a solid rotational QB in the next few rounds. Not totally ready to go all-in on a kid based off of two starts, but he sure looks good…Barber and Jones went back-to-back to the same team, interesting strategy. I've stated elsewhere in a "bold prediction" segment that Barber will lead all NFC East backs in fantasy points so I'm down with him. Less so on Jones, but if you missed out on RB earlier, he is the kind of upside play you want…Both Raiders backs are on my RB3/4 radar. Bush gets the nod between the two, but something tells me DMac will remind folks why he was highly touted prospect not long ago. The power of Jason Campbell – or more to the point, no JaMarcus Russell - works wonders…

85) Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG - FFToolbox
86) Jerome Harrison, RB, Cle
87) Heath Miller, TE, Pit
88) Carson Palmer, QB. Cin
89) Santonio Holmes, WR, Pit
90) Malcom Floyd, WR, SD
91) Pierre Garcon, WR, Ind
92) Derrick Mason, WR, Bal
93) Chris Cooley, TE, Was
94) Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
95) Ricky Williams, RB, Mia
96) Steve Breaston, WR, Ari

8th round analysis: Yes, I took Bradshaw over Jacobs and the trend is now going that way. The Giants will be in fewer shootouts this season, so they will run plenty, meaning both backs will get theirs. I just see no reason to believe Jacobs will live up to the hype his name conjures up, but Bradshaw will make the explosive plays out of this backfield…Cooley is looking strong in preseason, no lingering injury here…QB's can make the receiver more than the other way around, as we saw last year with Peyton Manning throwing successfully to unknowns Garcon and Austin Collie. Look for something similar with the Rivers-Floyd combo in SD this year…

97) Carnell Williams, RB, TB
98) Zach Miller, TE, Oak
99) Arian Foster, RB, Hou
100) Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ
101) Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
102) Ben Tate, RB, Hou
103) Devin Aromashhodu, WR, Chi
104) Tim Hightower, RB, Ari
105) Kellen Winslow, TE, TB
106) Jabar Gaffney, WR, Den
107) Brett Favre, QB, Min
108) Matt Ryan, QB, Atl

9th round analysis: No pick in this round as a result of dealing up for Pierre Thomas in the third…One owner is hoarding tight ends and now with Cooley, Daniels, Miller and Winslow off the board, I am likely to wait a loooong time before I take one…Foster is now going a couple of rounds higher with Tate out for the season…of the Jets trio of receivers, go Holmes if you need upside, Cotchery if you want a steady option and Edwards if you want to throw your remote control repeatedly when he drops pass after pass…Touchdown Tim Hightower went 68 picks after Wells. That's the kind of value a guy can fall in love with…This is earlier than I've seen Gaffney go, but he is a sleeper fav of mine, especially a round or two later.

109) Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit - FFToolbox
110) Austin Collie, WR, Ind
111) Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi
112) Kenny Britt, WR, Ten
113) Devin Hester, WR, Chi
114) Joe Flacco, QB, Bal
115) Golden Tate, WR, Sea
116) Willis McGahee, RB, Bal
117) LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ
118) John Carlson, TE, Sea
119) Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Min
120) Steve Slaton, RB, Hou

10th round analysis: All things being equal I would take Flacco over Big Ben and be fine with him as my starter, However, he has the same Week 8 bye as Kolb and since I am not confident I will be able to make a deal during the season in this league , I went with the Steelers QB. To be clear, in one of my "friends" leagues, I would not have let that stop me from taking Flacco, but both passers are very good value this late…We are clearly now in the pick and hope part of the receiver options. Even though his QB is more runner than thrower, I'd take Britt enormous talent over the others picked here…Was hoping Carlson would make it to me in the 11th. Oh well, the TE wait continues…

121) Chester Taylor, RB, Chi
122) Nate Burleson, WR, Det
123) Matthew Stafford, QB, Det
124) Eddie Royal, WR, Den
125) Donald Brown, RB, Ind- FFToolbox
126) Darren Sproles, RB, SD
127) Laurence Maroney, RB, NE
128) Lee Evans, WR, Buf
129) Laurent Robinson, WR, Stl
130) Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cle
131) Montario Hardesty, RB, Cle
132) Julian Edelman, WR, NE - FFToolbox

11th round analysis: Brown was one of my biggest swing and misses last season, but the Colts situation has not really changed as Addai remains an uninspiring play. If he can stay healthy this year and Addai doesn't (and he suffered a concussion in the Colts third preseason game), Brown could be a RB2 play at points. I like that potential at this point in the draft…With my own pick, I added some much needed receiver depth. Edelman has already shown he can be a Wes Welker clone, which is ideal in PPR. The Pats need to figure how to get both of them on the field together and I think they will…I would love to believe in Maroney, but three years of pain and misery have given me a negative Pavlovian-type reaction when I hear that name. The horror…

133) Chris Chambers, WR, KC
134) Dustin Keller, TE, NYJ
135) Larry Johnson, RB, Was
136) Mike Williams, WR, TB
137) Vince Young, QB, Ten
138) Roy Williams, WR, Dal
139) Jacoby Jones, WR, Hou
140) Tashard Choice, RB, Dal - FFToolbox
141) NYJ Defense
142) Lance Moore, WR, NO
143) Kevin Smith, RB, Det
144) Alex Smith, QB, SF

12th round analysis: Keller was next on the TE hit parade, but he was gone before I could take him. Instead I added to my RB depth with Choice, who will go from being the Cowboys third string to their best all-around fantasy option when inevitably one of the two injury-prone players ahead of him goes down…Williams is getting crazy preseason love. He has first round NFL talent, but dropped to the fourth due to off-the-field matters. Best thing for now is Bucs will be losing majority of time, so garbage points galore…The first defense is off the board. Jets are clearly good, but I'll wait a bit.

145) Chad Henne, QB, Mia
146) Green Bay Defense
147) Dexter McCluster, WR, KC
148) Jordan Shipley, WR, Cin
149) Legedu Naanee, WR, SD
150) Brian Westbrook, RB, SF
151) Leon Washington, RB, Sea
152) Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
153) Toby Gerhart, RB, Min
154) Bernard Scott, RB, Cin
155) Correll Buckhalter, RB, Den
156) Greg Olsen, TE, Chi - FFToolbox

13th round analysis: Relying on a Mike Martz system tight end works as well historically as having Vinny Cerrato run your front office. However, Olsen is crazy talented and the Bears appear to be trying to get him involved. A risk, sure, but taking it on a highly skilled player is one I am willing to take. For the record, would have taken him and others over Shockey…Very, very high on Henne even though he falls to the back-end of the QB2 run…Scott may be the number one pure RB fantasy handcuff option this year

157) Philadelphia Defense - FFToolbox
158) Nate Washington, WR, Ten
159) Javon Ringer, RB, Ten
160) Chaz Schillens, WR, Oak
161) Minnesota Defense
162) Demaryius Thomas, WR, Den
163) Derrick Ward, RB, TB
164) Matt Moore, QB, Car
165) Matt Leinart, QB, Ari
166) Kyle Orton, QB, Den
167) Josh Freeman, QB, TB
168) Matt Cassel, QB, KC

14th round analysis: By the team I pick again the top-8 or so defenses will be gone and since I do not have a pressing need, time to take one. There is some concern about how the Eagles will do in the post-Jim Johnson era, but their aggressive style remains…Of these deeper QB options, I would lean towards taking risks on Cassel or Freeman as pure backups, but Orton makes for the best bet if you need a low-end rotational option.

This recap is right now longer than Antonio Bryan's stay with the Bengals, so if you want to see the remaining six rounds or the entire draft laid out, click here. Here are my final picks along with another drafted player I like in each round…

15th – Mike Thomas, WR, Jax; Bernard Berrian, WR, Min
16th – Tony Scheffler, TE, Det; Dallas Defense
17th – James Jones, WR, GB; Kareem Huggins, RB, TB
18th – Mike Bell, RB, Phi;
19th – Michael Vick, QB, Phi; Mario Manningham, WR, NYG
20th – Shayne Graham, K, Bal; Keiland Williams, RB, Was

It is officially depth and flyer time and the Jags second receiver covers both categories. The 5-9 Thomas is a speedster who should see a lot of single coverage opposite Sims-Walker…Scheffler was rescued from Josh McDaniels and sent to the Lions, so expect something closer to his 2008 stats when he hauled in 16.1 yards over 40 receptions…Donald Driver has lingering knee issues and if he goes down, Jones comes in. That means having a starting WR in the Packers juggernaut of an offense. He should get 4-5 scores regardless…If you listened to the FFToolbox podcast last week you heard me talk up Bell as a sleeper behind LeSean McCoy. At a minimum he will tote the ball at the goal line. If McCoy struggles like he did a year ago, Bell could split the carries and then, who knows…With Roethlisberger out the first four weeks at least and nothing but the likes of Trent Edwards available, I added Vick as insurance behind Kolb…Graham was one of the last kickers selected, but he is in a great spot. Shows why there is no reason to rush on this position…

Final Depth Chart (projected starts in bold/italics)

QB: Kolb, Roethlisberger, Vick
RB: Mendenhall, P. Thomas Bradshaw, D. Brown, Choice, M. Bell
WR: R. Moss, Crabtree, Harvin, Edelman, M. Thomas, J. Jones
TE: Olsen Scheffler
FL: Stewart (RB)
DF: Philadelphia
K: Graham

The running backs are the strength of this team and could be down unstoppable if the Saints give Thomas a heavier workload and Stewart ends up being the Panthers singular running game weapon…Receiver depth is questionable, but all three are the kind of upside plays I like. Moss will be a beast this year and the young duo of Crabtree and Harvin are on the cusp of cracking the group of elite playmakers in the league…QB is solid and potentially stellar, while TE is a work in progress, but the two players in the roster have done it before. Overall, I'm feeling good. Let's get it on!

Strategy Session - making sense of trade deadline and closing weeks of the fantasy season

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:31:00 -0400

This week's podcast, which focused on the commonly used Week 10 fantasy trade deadline and the best/worst player and team matchups in the pivotal weeks 14-16, was so chock full of info that it ran well beyond regulation time. While I assume (sorry, clearing my throat) everyone will listen to the show in its entirety via ITunes, I decided to provide a cliff notes version of the episode. The take below is largely my own, but you can hear additional insight from FFToolbox.com writers Rob Warner and Chris Weeks on the podcast.

Since the trade deadline clock is ticking, let's not waste time on me writing some detailed, pithy intro, especially since I have not yet had my morning coffee. That is not a good scene for anyone involved...In general, please note that we are not focusing on weekly studs like Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Randy Moss, but instead on those mix and match options or even some players that have been solid, but face a daunting schedule in the final weeks. While matchups cannot dictate exactly how you set your lineup, they can help determine which side of the fence you land on a certain player and these notes should provide a look forward into some of the more promising or challenging decisions that lie ahead for fantasy owners. How one handles their trade deadline planning could make the difference between that light at the end of the fantasy tunnel being the shine coming off your soon-to-be won trophy or the fast moving train running straight at your squad.

Best Team schedules: Cardinals, Bengals, Seahawks - No team has a better across the board schedule the rest of the way then the Cardinals, who have a top-5 schedule at QB, RB, WR, TE, K and defense according to the FFToolbox Strength of Schedule guide, my favorite tool on the site by the way. Obviously Larry Fitzgerald is a must have, but virtually all of their starters (outside of TE Ben Patrick) are worth acquiring and starting most weeks.

Worst Team schedules: Eagles, Bucs, Giants - The trusty strength of schedule meter has the Giants RB and WR schedules ranked 31st the rest of the way with Eli Manning's SOS coming in at 27th among quarterbacks. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants clearly have talented players on offense and I expect Tom Coughlin to get them back on the right track in terms of NFL wins and losses. However, fantasy expectations should be tamped down based on their schedule and with a certain amount of uncertainty going forward. Don't do anything drastic, but considering dealing your Giants starters or start looking for more promising trade options. Now.

Quarterback

Good: Kurt Warner - Ok, raise your hand if you thought this former league MVP would still be upright by Week 10...put your hand down Brenda. I am talking to the non-believers, the ones who saw a 38-year old with a history of injuries and questioned whether they should get target Warner in their fantasy draft and hope for a repeat of his inspired 2008 season. Though Warner has not performed at a Pro Bowl level, he has been a solid, low-end QB1 play, ranking 11th in PPG average among QB's. But that was then; the future, one that for now does not involve a walker, looks quite promising for the Cards QB. The schedule highlights: Week 15, at the Lions, who are currently 31st against the pass and have allowed the second most TD passes. That is followed by the Rams, Warner's former team, who sit currently 22nd against the pass. Oh, Warner owners, one last thing. Warner's present health not withstanding, do not forget to add Matt Leinart as a handcuff down the stretch. (This goes for virtually any of your stud players as having the backup will let you sleep better at night in a post-trade deadline world)

Other passers: Week nine struggles aside, Joe Flacco remains a rotational fantasy option with QB1 potential (Week 14 - LIons; Week 16 - Bears) in the right matchups...Already worthy of a roster spot, now Alex Smith is making a claim to be a strong QB2 or spot starter. Not many passers will have a better stretch of games (Week 13 - @ Seahawks; Week 14 - Cardinals, 29th vs. the pass; Week 16 - Lions) with which to close out the season...Purely for Golden Domer lovers and those scared to death to have only Jake Delhomme or Trent Edwards as their backup QB; Brady Quinn faces the Chiefs on the road in Week 15 and hosts the Raiders in Week 16. Yes, take that final recommendation with a dumpster sized grain of salt amount.

Bad: Matt Ryan - Of the preseason top 10-12 QB's, the one that passer that currently is not sniffing that tier now is Ryan, the Falcons wunderkind second-year star. We can debate Ryan's real life value to the Falcons franchise in another forum, but fantasy owners have not been pleased of late. Over his last four starts, Ryan has thrown for less than 200 yards three times while totaling six TDP and eight INT in that overall stretch. That is too large of a sampling too simply dismiss as a minor blip and gives legit concern to his fantasy owners, who will therefore be none to pleased with the reigning Rookie of the Year's closing schedule; during week's 13-16, the Falcons play the Eagles, Saints, @ Jets, Bills, all of whom currently sit among the top half of NFL defenses against the pass. (But Ben, three of those games are at home. Surely that has to be good news for Matty Ice, right?). Ryan has thrown eight of his 13 touchdowns in his four home games, but is averaging 61 yards less per game (192) than generated in his four starts away from the Georgia Dome.

Other passers: Several big name passers (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo) have among the worst statistical matchups the rest of the way, but should remain entrenched in your lineup. On the other hand, Kyle Orton's early season fantasy success is unlikely to be duplicated down the stretch with three top-13 pass defenses (@ Colts, Raiders, @ Eagles) to face in Weeks 14-16.

Running Back

Good: Pierre Thomas - The Saints backfield has been a confounding and confusing scenario for fantasy owners this year, with the emergence of Mike Bell and the almost shunning of Reggie Bush. Also Pierre Thomas mostly failed to live up to his early draft status due to early injuries and the surprising play of Bell, but appears to have re-taken over the reins as the top dog with 181 total yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks (In comparison, Bell had only five carries for 17 yards last week). Not only do I expect that trend to continue, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints lead runner the rest of the way; two games vs. the Bucs 30th ranked run defense, including in the climatic Week 16, plus matchups with the Rams (27th) and Falcons (24th). As my colleague Rob Warner stated on the podcast, Thomas may be the one attainable RB1/2 option out there because of the first half uncertainty, but the schedule and that Saints offense make with him pursuing.

Other runners: The return of Sammy Morris is the "x" factor in the Patriots backfield, but Laurence Maroney has been a solid producer since getting the bulk of the touches of late. Now check out the teams he will be running against in weeks 14-16; Panthers (23rd), @ Bills (32nd), Jaguars (22nd). The quantity of carries likely keeps Maroney out of becoming a true RB2 each week, but the lack of quality opponents in the closing games should more than make up for it.

Bad: Ryan Grant - Solid, not spectacular is a perfect way to describe Grant's 2009 season. In eight games, Grant has failed to reach double digit scoring only once in standard scoring leagues, but only scored over 15 points once this season with five games in the 10-12 point range. Considering there is no real threat in the wings to steal carries, Grant may be able to continue squeeze out similar numbers, but the odds are stacked against him from providing fantasy owners with anything more based on the Packers closing schedule. Over weeks 11-16, Grant faces the Niners (Week 11, 4th ranked rush defense), Ravens (Week 13, 7th), Steelers (Week 15, 1st) and Seahawks (Week 16, 11th). Even the two promising weeks (Week 12 @ Lions, Week 14 @ Bears) are on the road against division foes. Considering the Week 15 matchup against the frightening Steel Curtain defense makes Grant almost unusable, it makes sense to troll the Packers starting RB out in trade talks to see if you can snag a comparable RB with a much, much better schedule.

Other runners: DeAngelo Williams dominated the second half of the 2008 fantasy season and has been on fire over the last few weeks, making him virtually schedule proof. The same however cannot be said for his tag-team partner Jonathan Stewart, who is looking no better than a spot-flex play with the Panthers playing @ Jets (Week 12), @ Pats (14), Vikings (15) and @ Giants (16) to close the season.

Wide Receiver

Good: Kevin Walter - There is little to tout about Walter's first half, but his targets likely will rise with the absence of TE Owen Daniels. Those extra targets should be put to good use in Weeks 13-16 with games at the Jaguars (21st against the pass), Seahawks (17th), Rams (20th) and Dolphins (29th). That schedule also makes Texans third receiver and likely free agent Jacoby Jones worth a look in deeper leagues.

Other catchers: It has been easier to predict what will happen on "Lost" than figure out which Saints wide receiver other than Marques Colston is the one to use each week. The wealth will likely continued to be spread, but Robert Meachem may be on the verge of become a more viable WR3 weekly option with seven receptions for 145 yards and a score over the last two weeks. The burner is posting a sizzling 22.8 yards per grab and that could mean a big pay day with closing games against the Rams (Week 11, 20th against the pass), Bucs (Weeks 12 and 16 against a unit that has allowed the third most TDP) and Falcons (28th).

Bad: Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: Bad enough the Giants enter their bye week on a four-game losing streak, but their struggling aerial attack faces a who's who of top pass defenses the rest of the way. In Weeks 12-16, the Giants are @ Broncos (8th against the pass), Cowboys, Eagles (14th), @ Redskins (1st) and @ Panthers (6th). Smith should catch enough passes to remain more than viable in PPR leagues, but expect decreased yardage and touchdown numbers across the board.

Other catchers: Already talked about why Matt Ryan could struggle the rest of the way and obviously that effects his star receiver Roddy White, who has been more "blah" then "yea!" most weeks this season. When you look inside White's 40-570-6 numbers through eight games, one notes that most of production (318 yards, three TDs) came in only two games. White did not generate more than 57 yards and the other six games. Playing against those top passing defenses during fantasy crunch time does not seem like a cure-all.

Tight End

Good: Vernon Davis - Who would have guessed that the insertion of Alex Smith into the Niners lineup would actually be a good thing for their passing game. Huh. One person might have been Davis, who clearly has great chemistry with Smith, having racked up four touchdowns over 10 quarters since the Niners made the QB change and he hauled in 10 passes for 102 yards last week alone. Among tight ends, Davis has a top-5 schedule going forward, with tasty games against the Jags (Week 12), @ Seahawks (13), Cardinals (14), @ Eagles (15) and Lions (16) so there is no reason to think the former Maryland Terrapin's production will slow down anytime soon.

Bad: Kellen Winslow - The simple truth is that unless you drafted say Brent Celek or Heath Miller as a backup and thus have two capable tight ends on your roster, there is almost no reason to sit your fantasy starter due to the lack of free agent options available. However, one top level talent that teams should consider unloading before the trading deadline is Winslow, who faces the 31st toughest schedule among TE's the rest of the way. I know Josh Freeman just posted nice numbers in his first start, but I won't be comfortable with him throwing to any fantasy player until we see how he does on the road (starting this week at the Dolphins) and how opposing teams defense the rook now that there actual game film to study. If you can move Winslow for a comparable TE option that has a more known quantity at QB throwing him the ball like the aforementioned Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe, make the deal.

Defense:

Good: Bengals - While the real life Bengals defense has garnered attention from football pundits with the inspired play so far, the fantasy world has not quite taken note, largely to the consistent unit not truly having a breakout performance. That all could change starting in Week 11 when the Bengals play on the road at the Raiders followed by back-to-back home games against the lowly Browns and Lions. Tack on a Week 16 tilt against the Chiefs and the Bengals are a virtual one-stop fantasy defense shop going forward.

Other defenses: No defense has a better Week 15-16 schedule than the Cardinals, with a road game at the Lions followed by a home tilt against the Rams. Nuff said... For those that still have work to do before those late matchups can become relevant, consider the Dolphins. Over the next three weeks they face Josh Freeman, Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards...if you plan on going with a "defense of the week" strategy, also note the Titans (Week 14 vs. Rams, the first of three straight home games) and the Texans (Week 15 @ Rams, Week 16 vs. Chad Henne).

Bad: Panthers - Brutal early on, the Panthers defense has rebounded with solid to strong outings in three of their past four games, but now will be without star LB Thomas Davis the rest of the way due to an ACL injury. Factor in their Week 14-16 opponents (Patriots, Vikings, Giants) and the Panthers D is not likely to be long for your roster.

*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16

Best Bets for Week Six of the NFL season

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:03:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Six of the NFL season...

We'll skip the normal intro and get right into the picks, which of course are for informational purposes only. In addition, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Last week: 8-6 straight, 7-7 spread

Overall: 53-23 straight; 40-36 spread

Washington 17 Kansas City 14 (+6): The dysfunction within the Redskins family makes the Jon and Kate brood look like the Brady Bunch in comparison and it is only getting worse by the minute. Players are going after each other, management, the media and ever former Redskins heroes are taking shots. With that said, they still have more talent than the game, but rebuilding Chiefs and become the worst 3-3 team in FL history. Clinton Portis should receive enough carries to post solid yards even if at less than a four yards per carry clip, while Dwayne Bowe should make three big plays against the overrated DeAngelo Hall...

never mind...Kansas City 20 Washington 17. As my old boss at a financial services company once told me, don't catch a falling knife and the Redskins are falling. Plus LT Chris Samuels was already ruled out for the game and now may be done for the season, adding to downward spira. (if you think I am being negative on the Redskins, try living here. Fans are ready to take to the streets, torches and all)

Cincinnati 24 Houston 20 (+4.5): Houston has a problem; they cannot stop the run. Cedric Benson is licking his chops and leads the Bengals to a shocking 5-1 start, but Matt Schaub moves the ball enough to keep the game in doubt until the end. It would not be a Bengals this year otherwise.

Pittsburgh 27 (-14) Cleveland 10: Big Ben has quietly turned in a top-3 fantasy quarterback performance year to date. No reason to see that status changing in this one, especially if a Rashard Mendenhall illness has the Steelers passing even more and more. With Braylon Edwards traded and the Steelers stout run defense standing in the way of Jamal Lewis, there is not one Browns player worth starting.

Baltimore 20 (+3) Minnesota 17: Brett Favre and the Vikings have looked very good so far playing against the Browns, Lions, Niners, Packers and Rams. Now they get a real test against one of the NFL's elite and that will lead to a battered Favre and a home loss. On the other side, the versatile Ray Rice has another big day, this time as a receiver.

Jacksonville 31 (-9.5) St. Louis 17: How bad do you have to be to be a 9.5 point dog to a team that lost 41-0 the week before. Meet your 2009 Rams! Torry Holt and Mike "Party Boy" Sims-Walker get jiggy with it against what is a horrid Rams secondary, though Donnie Avery will finish with game-high receiving yardage total.

NY Giants 27 (+3) New Orleans 23: Lots of folks love the Bourbon Street boys this week and the Giants have injuries on defense and to their QB, though Eli will not miss the game in his hometown. With that said, the Giants are the best team in the NFC, if not the entire league, until further notice. Drew Brees will get back into fantasy owners good graces, though not an elite day, but look for him to attack the Giants secondary deep down the middle. There might even be a Lance Moore sighting in this one.

Carolina 24 (-3) Tampa Bay 20: As long as Steve Smith (knee) is on the field - and he is expected to play - he will torch the Bucs secondary as he did twice last year. If not, it is officially panic time for his fantasy owners (myself included). Even Jake Delhomme and Mushin Muhammad are worthy of a bye week start this week... Cadillac Williams should find running lanes against the Panthers inferior run defense and Josh Johnson showed he can move the ball for those owners in need of a last second QB.

Green Bay 34 (-13) Detroit 20: Aaron Rodgers should enjoy a rare game where he can stand in the pocket and look for Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley down the field. Calvin Johnson is looking like a game-time decision with a lean towards sitting at this point. Bryant Johnson should pick up extra targets if that happens.

Philadelphia 30 (-14) Oakland 10: I was instinctively going to take the home team getting double digit points at home, but then remembered that the Raiders were channeling their owner on the field by playing the living dead. DeSean and LeSean each find the end zone in this laugher, but the frustration for Brian Westbrook owners extends another week.

Seattle 31 (-3) Arizona 27: The Seahawks continue their turnaround season, while the Cards continue their slide back to the middle. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Kurt Warner will throw for three scores, but the Seahawks defense forces more turnovers to eke out the win.

NY Jets 24 (-9.5) Buffalo 13: Do not count on Rex Ryan's defense to get rolled two weeks in a row. Trent Edwards should be nervous. The weather is also looking like a factor and strong winds should keep Mark Sanchez from throwing his great deep ball to Braylon Edwards too often, but the duo finds the end zone for the second straight week. Terrell Owens will be jealous of that.

New England 34 (-9) Tennessee 20: Who did the Titans piss off to have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their schedule in back-to-back weeks. Entering the game 0-5 just makes it all the more painful and having the Golden Boy throw down field haymaker after haymaker will only make it worse. The Titans should take advantage of the Pats weakness at linebacker by getting Chris Johnson more involved in the passing game.

Atlanta 24 Chicago 23 (+3): Matt Ryan vs. Jay Cutler. Matt Forte vs. Michael Turner. These were questions fantasy owners debated throughout the preseason, making this a statement game for those that made the choice to pick one over the other. Fantasy wise, all should be probably feel about the same in this one, though Dirty Bird owners will be sticking their chest out just a bit more Monday morning.

San Diego 27 (-3.5) Denver 20: I've been a believer of the Broncos all season and last week's win over the Pats should convince the doubters, but the Bolts MUST win this division game. The Chargers do not have the power running game ideally suited to beat the Broncos, but they do have Philip Rivers and he gets it done with 250+ yards and two scores.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Best Bets for Week Four of the NFL season

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 12:48:00 -0400

The more my Washington Redskins continue to falter, the more I thank those that came up with idea for fantasy football. For the past decade plus, the fantasy game has provided a fantastic distraction (ok, maybe obsession) since the Redskins have largely been an underachieving and dysfunctional franchise and perhaps worse, have simply been to boring for words on the field. That trend has continued this year as even their only win came courtesy of three field goals against the lowly Rams. Because their starting-22 is formidable on paper, the diehard faithful maintain their positive outlook despite all evidence to the contrary.

The reality is that no matter how Albert Haynesworth's they sign, how many Clinton Portis' they trade for or how many head coaches they got through, nothing will change until owner Dan Snyder realizes he knows squat about football. The Danny is clearly a strong businessman and the Redskins franchise is among the valuable in all of sports even despite the mounting losses, but it is also apparent based on his approach that winning on the field is not as important or no more important than the bottom line. I am not naive enough to think all owners want to make all the money they can and frankly they should since they are the ones for the most part putting up the dough. However, that is not what he says. The Redskins stance under Snyder has been that their massive free agent signings and discarding of draft picks for questionable veteran talent is all part of the plan to win the big one. Yeah, not buying it, never have, never will.

With the offensive line breaking down, Portis looking 28 going on 40 with every carry and Jim Zorn appearing overwhelmed on the sidelines, the outlook for the remainder of the 2009 season is looking bleaker than the fate of Juliet on Lost. Still, this is a good thing, long term. The potential for that kind of doom and gloom season means 1) Jim Zorn is gone, perhaps front office lackey Vinny Cerrato as well (fingers crossed on the latter). If the Redskins fans are lucky, Danny will see the light, higher a legit GM/team President to run the ship while he focuses on making movies with Tom Cruise and not running his Six Flags investment into the ground. Of course, none of the elite coaching options will view the Redskins as a viable opportunity even if they get paid with no string QB in place which is why...2) losing gets them in better shape to draft their QB of the future. The free agent pool looks light for passers at the moment Jason Campbell is not looking like anything more than a competent, but uninspiring QB. Whether it is Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy or someone that comes out of the woodworks, the Redskins gig will look MUCH more attractive to the Mike Shanahan's and Jon Gruden's of the world with a young passer to mold.

It is hard to ever root for your team to fail, especially this early in the season, but any Redskins fan who truly want the franchise to rebound for the long haul needs to start rooting for a 3-13 season...

Ok, on to the weekly picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only. Also, the fantasy comments, which are simply the musings of a fantasy writer who spent way to much this week worrying about whom Cleveland would start at QB because he has Braylon Edwards and is tired of seeing a single digit number next to his name in the fantasy box score and do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com...

Last week: 11-5 straight, 10-6 spread

Overall: 34-14 straight; 28-20 spread

Houston 27 Oakland 20 (+9): Steve Slaton topped double digit fantasy points last week for the first time this season with 102 total yards, but despite his Barry Sanders-like moves, he still has not found the end zone nor provided anything close to what fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted him in the top-15. The good news is that the Texans offense has been prolific the last two games so Slaton will have opportunities, perhaps even around the goal line following Chris Brown's late game fumble. The upcoming schedule is a mixed bag, though he is a must start against the Raiders. Stay the course with the second-year back...Zach Miller caught six passes for 96 yards in the season opener, but the JaMarcus Russell experience has held him down to two receptions for 17 yards since. Expect Miller to be more involved against a Texans secondary that is on their third SS on the season. If not, it will be time to send Miller to the waivers until Russell is sent to the bench...

Tennessee 31 (-3) Jacksonville 27: Lendale White became everyone's favorite plug in play option last season when he scored touchdowns in the first four games and 10 through six games. The same cannot be said this season as the former tequila lover has only score and has not cracked 30 yards in a game this year. If another owner thinks White remains a weekly flex/RB2 play and will deal fair compensation, make the deal...This is a good week to play members of the Jags passing game, Mike Sims-Walker in most formats and David Garrard, Torry Holt and even Marcedes Lewis as bye week options. The Titans pass defense has allowed an average of 297 yards through the air in three games. Sims-Walker should be owned in nearly all leagues and one more good game should give him the tag as the Jags #1 receiver, especially if Holt does significantly improve on his 12-169 totals on the year.

New England 24 (-2) Baltimore 20: Now this is a matchup...Fred Taylor took the reins of the Pats backfield last week and remains the best bet going forward, but Kevin Faulk should be the top backfield weapon against the stingy Ravens defense. If Wes Welker misses another week, Faulk could be close to posting double digit receptions...Willis McGahee owners should continue to ride the hot hand, but his trade value may not be higher the rest of the season. Note that while McGahee had another big week with two scores, he had only seven carries and the Ravens schedule to this point as been rather kind to say the least.

Cleveland 23 (+6) Cincinnati 21: Upset of the week! This is not an X's and O's pick, but a gut feel. Coming off their upset division win over the Steelers in Week 3 and with the NFC North leading Baltimore Ravens on deck in Week 5, it would not be surprising to see them look past arguably the worst team in the NFL this week. Factor in the Browns are beyond desperate for a win and would love to get it done against their in-state rival and this looks like a perfect trap game...Cedric Benson, who shockingly ranks 3rd in rush yards, should crank out another big game for the Bengals despite the loss...With Jamal Lewis looking doubtful and Braylon Edwards expected to have his hands full with Bengals shutdown corner Leon Hall, Jerome Harrison will be the main offensive weapon for the Browns. Look for 15-22 touches for 85-95 yards and a score, making him my deep sleeper fantasy play of the week.

NY Giants 27 (-8.5) Kansas City 10: As mentioned in this week's "Deep League Pickups" article, the Giants' Kevin Boss makes for a nice bye week filler this week for Tony Gonzalez and Brent Celek owners. Though he has only six receptions for 102 yards on the year, Boss now faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed Todd Heap (5-74-1) and Celek (8-104-1) to post impressive stat lines...The hype surrounding Matt Cassel's trade to the Chiefs outkicked the reality of the KC situation, especially their horrid offensive line, but the same could be said for the negative vibes following his two lackluster performances. While trying to learn a new system, Cassel missed most of the preseason with an injury and the early season schedule has not been kind for the Chiefs offense. Do not consider starting him anytime soon, but the second half of the schedule offers more opportunities and by then Cassel and coach Todd Haley should be more comfortable with one another.

Chicago 30 Detroit 21 (+10): So much of the fantasy focus has been on waiver wire darlings Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, but Devin Hester has quietly been the consistent weapon the Bears were hoping he would become. Hester has caught 4, 4 and 5 passes in his first three games with a score and at least 76 receiving yards in two games. Better in non-PPR leagues, but Hester is inching closer to becoming a WR2 starter in all leagues...Bryant Johnson never quite put it all together with the Cardinals, but he is getting the job done so far with the Lions. As long as Calvin Johnson is lined up on the other side, the other Johnson makes for a spot WR3 play on a team that will be forced to throw most weeks.

Washington 24 (-7.5) Tampa Bay 14: If you have been holding out hope that your Redskins skill players will get the job done with any consistency, consider this game to be your line of demarcation. The Bucs defense, especially the secondary, has been hapless to this point so Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are all solid plays while Jason Campbell is a fine QB2 or low-end starter. With that said, this offense is looking among the worst in the league and only Cooley remains among the elite at his position. Clinton Portis will be a sell-high candidate if he rocks the Bucs this week, though late word is that he missed practice on Friday and is only 50-50 to play...Josh Johnson has some long-term sleeper type ability, Cadillac Williams should get plenty of touches with Derrick Ward expected to be limited or out, but you want to avoid all Bucs skill players this week if possible against a solid Redskins defense.

Indianapolis 34 (-10.5) Seattle 23: Donald Brown has not been a massive hit, but he has looked quicker and better overall than Joseph Addai. This should continue to be a split backfield for a few more weeks, but eventually the Colts will give Brown more touches, making Addai a player you want to consider moving if you can get a comparable RB now...Seneca Wallace will not have Colts top pass rusher Dwight Freeney breathing down his neck, but his presence in the lineup tamps down expectations for all the Seahawks skill players.

New Orleans 28 NY Jets 24 (+7): A reader this week asked via email which of the two quarterbacks in this game should he start, using Brees' off-week in Week 3 as the basis for considering Mark Sanchez. Repeat after me: unless he is playing in a blizzard, you should never, never, never bench Drew Brees. The same cannot be said for his top receiver Marques Colston, who faces the uber-tough Darrelle Revis this week. Stick with Colston if you do not have comparable options, but otherwise this looks like a good week to sit him...Leon Washington has been getting more touches than expected. That should continue this week as the Jets use him as a safety valve against the Saints heavy blitz and Washington delivers with a long touchdown.

Buffalo 16 (-1.5) Miami 10: Can Trent Edwards actually throw the ball outside the hashmarks? It sure does not appear so as Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have become almost non-factors in the passing game. Still, do not buy into Josh Reed even if he was the top producing receiver last week. The Dolphins secondary is beatable so use Owens and Evans as you would normally this week...The Chad Henne era should be good for Ted Ginn down the line as the speedster will finally be able to cut it loose deep with the strong-armed QB, something he was unable to do with the light tossing Pennington.

San Francisco 27 St. Louis 20 (+9.5): Vernon Davis may not ever reach his lofty first-round draft pick status, but he is in line for back-to-back productive weeks. After two touchdowns in Week 3, Davis could find the end zone again versus a soft Rams defense that has had troubles with tight ends this year...As silly as this sounds, the Rams passing game is probably better off with the strong-armed Kyle Boller at quarterback then the beat up Marc Bulger. It will not help wins and losses, but Boller's ability to go deep should help the disappointing Donnie Avery regain some fantasy value if the former Ravens QB gets the start.

Denver 23 (+3) Dallas 20: This week starts the legit season for the Broncos, who have benefitted from a light schedule so far. They are not a team worthy of their 3-0 record, but the defense is much improved and Kyle Orton simply wins games. Look for Orton and his quartet of receivers to get theirs against the Cowboys ordinary secondary...The Monday night game showed why Tashard Choice and not Felix Jones was the handcuff back for Marion Barber owners to grab. Jones has crazy ability, but simply cannot stay healthy with a heavy dose, while Choice has had no problems running early and often behind the Cowboys massive line. Even with Barber back this week, Choice is a worthy flex option.

Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20 (+6): With Willie Parker looking like he will be sidelined in Week 4, Mewelde Moore suddenly becomes a flex or perhaps even a RB2 play in the deepest of leagues. Simply put, the Steelers ground game remains curious and Rashard Mendenhall has not impressed when given looks. Expect Moore to see more snaps, especially in the second half in what should be a tight affair...When does Chris Chambers get his picture on the side of a milk carton? No catches in two of three games and only went for 2-30 in the other. Seriously, what happened here? Didn't we all think he would become a star once he got away from the hapless QB's he played with in Miami?

Minnesota 27 Green Bay 24 (+3.5): The lack of production out of Bernard Berrian makes one wonder if Brett Favre can actually throw the deep pass, the route in which Berrian has made his living on. Until Favre shows he can, Berrian must stay on your bench except for bye week situations. Do not expect more than spotty production from Berrian this season...Beyond the fact that Aaron Rodgers is my fantasy QB in one league, I am soooo rooting for him to out produce Favre in their mano y mano matchup. He gets it done with three scores, but the Vikes run defense, home field and AP gets them the W.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Best Bets for Week Three of the NFL season

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:39:00 -0400

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Three of the NFL season...

Since I am way behind in preparation for my flight this evening to New Orleans for what will like be an eventful bachelor party weekend, I will just leave you all with some quick fantasy plays I like this week before I list the other kind of the picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only...These fantasy thoughts are based on players that are not overt starts each week, have been suspect year to date or are expected to fall below their normal weekly value. In addition, these musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands...

Thumbs Up:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Trent Edwards, Jake Delhomme

RB: Brandon Jacobs, Fred Jackson, Tashard Choice (if Marion Barber sits)

WR: Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Steve Smith (NYG), Mark Clayton, Malcolm Kelly (for deep leagues only)

TE: Brent Celek, Jermichael Finley

K: Nate Kaeding, Rian Lindell, Ryan Longwell

Def: Broncos

Thumbs Down:

QB: Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton

RB: Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson

WR: Justin Gage, Dwayne Bowe

TE: John Carlson

Def: Falcons

Last week: 10-6 straight, 9-7 spread

Overall: 23-9 straight; 18-14 spread

Tennessee 17 (+1.5) NY Jets 16: While I called for the Titans to slip this year and miss the playoffs, I just can't see them falling to 0-3...I know Usain Bolt is the fastest man in the world, but I would to see a race between him and Chris Johnson in full pads, carrying the rock and having defenders chasing them. CJ would make for a nice underdog wager.

Houston 31(-3.5) Jacksonville 24: Good news for Jaguars fans; since your squad is on the road, you actually get to watch them on TV this week. Too bad the footage will be mostly R rated when the Texans have the ball.

Philadelphia 27 (-7.5) Kansas City 14: The non-football sequitur of the week...Philly sports fans need the win after watching more and more of the imploding Brad Lidge on the baseball diamond. Hard to see the Phils get passed the Dodgers even with their imposing lineup because of the chaos in their bullpen...As for Kansas City, if Zack Greinke is not a near unanimous Cy Young award winner, then all 27 of the Royals fans should take to the streets.

Baltimore 31 (-13) Cleveland 17: The Ravens offensive juggernaut keeps on rolling on, topping 30 points for the third straight game, though this time Ed Reed joins the fun with an interception return. The Joe Flacco-to-Mark Clayton will produce a long TD this week ...At what point do we start putting Brady Quinn into the Alex Smith/David Carr bust category? The Ravens secondary has been beatable this season, but Quinn does not possess the weapons nor the game to hurt them much at this point.

NY Giants 27 (-6.5) Tampa Bay 10: How about the "other Steve Smith". Been touting him all offseason and he delivered in a big way against the Cowboys. Of course, the guy that overshadowed by his namesake in Carolina now gets upstaged by his Giants teammate Mario Manningham. Smith remains the most consistent Giants receiver this season...If you want to make a run at Brandon Jacobs from some panicky owner, do it now before he scores twice against the Bucs...Byron Leftwich has thrown for 572 yards this season, The last time he threw for that many yards in back-to-back games? Weeks 6 and 7 during the 2004 season. Even though the Bucs will be forced to throw a lot this year as they trail late in games, trade Leftwich now if anyone is sniffing around for a deal. As the losses mount, the Bucs will eventually turn to Josh Johnson or Josh Freeman to see what they have waiting in the wings

Washington 23 Detroit 20 (+6): The losing streak continues in the Motor City, but it takes a late defensive stand by Albert Haynesworth and crew to keep the Lions out of the winning column...Jason Campbell throws a nice deep ball, but the Redskins game plan - or the QB's decision's - have him throwing it short more often. This week, he airs it out for not one, but two 30+ yard TD passes.

Green Bay 24 St. Louis 20 (+6.5): Covering the Rams locker room in their Week 2 loss at Washington, I got a close up look at the multiple bruises and welts covering Marc Bulger's back and arms after several redskins defenders unloaded on him during the game. The discoloration was so plentiful it made me think Chris Brown and Ike Turner took turns whacking him with a baseball bat...after watching the beating Aaron Rodgers is taking behind his leaky offensive line, I fear he could meet the same fate, but he finds Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley for score this week.

Minnesota 20 San Francisco 16 (+6.5): The owners that passed on Adrian Peterson take one step closer to the rubber room when All Day posts 135 yards and a score.

New England 27 (-4) Atlanta 21: After watching Julian Edeleman catch eight passes in Week 2, I suddenly remembered I needed to make an appointment with my ophthalmologist. Nice and surprising effort Julian, but Pats fans are hoping Wes Welker is ready to go...Will Tony Gonzalez score his third TD in as many weeks? Yes, yes he will.

Chicago 24 (-1.5) Seattle 17: If Matt Hasselebeck can play, Seattle wins, but at this point that is looking less likely than Serena Williams winning a Miss Congeniality award...Matt Forte owners fear not. Your number one pick busts loose for 130+ total yards and a score. Greg Olsen owners however will have to deal with another 3-41 stat line...

Buffalo 30 (+6) New Orleans 27: Normally I would say a team like the Bills would have a hard time keeping up with the Saints offense, but you have to be impressed with what the Fred Jackson led attack has done so far. Home field puts them over the top against a Saints squad that already may be forced to start their backup to their backup at running back.

San Diego 23 Miami 20 (+6): As the saying goes, you have to be strong up the middle to win championships. Injuries to C Nick Hardwick and NT Jamal Williams, who

Pittsburgh 20 Cincinnati 17 (+4): The Bengals defense shows they are legit with another strong outing, but the Steelers air game and relentless pass rush get the job done

Denver 23 (-1.5) Oakland 20: Raise your hands if you had the Broncos at 3-0 after what they went through this offseason? Of course, they need all the wins they can get right now with a frightening schedule on the horizon, but so far so good...Considering the horrific mess that is JaMarcus Russell and their depth in the backfield, aren't the Raiders an ideal candidate to run the Wildcat as their base offense?

Indianapolis 30 (+2.5) Arizona 21: I wonder if Peyton Manning scores as quickly with the ladies as he did against the Dolphins. Imagine what numbers he would have produced with a 50-50 split of the game clock. Wow...Memo to Bill Parcells: next year, go out and get a big time receiver. Ted Ginn is not the answer and eventually (I think) the Wildcat offense will found out. But with Ronnie Brown and that offensive line, this could be a formidable unit with a playmaker on the outside...

Dallas 30 Carolina 23 (+8.5): if your life depended on it, would you rather to rely on Jake Delhomme or Tony Romo not to commit a turnover? I will let you noodle that one over the weekend...

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Giving credit where credit is due

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 13:01:00 -0400

Some quick thoughts on Brett Favre and other items of interest from a largely entertaining Monday Night game, plus the oddly timed firing of Chiefs OC Chan Gailey and how it affects that offense...

- I am as tired of the entire Brett Favre saga as much as the next person (assuming the next person isn't Rachel Nichols or one the other ESPN reporters who were forced to camp out on Favre's Hattiesburg, MS front lawn all summer), but I have to admit I was rather impressed with what #4 showed against the Texans.

From a pure football standpoint, my questions with this latest Favre comeback included the status of his injured arm (elbow, rotator cuff) and the likely lack of rapport, timing that he would have with his offensive teammates considering he was showing up about an hour before the season started.

On the first point, Favre's arm looked lively and he did not appear to be pulling any punches on his passes against an improving Texans defense. Though he was more game manager than gunslinger, the Vikes new QB was more than effective, completing 13-of-18 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. There was also no sign of discomfort from a cracked rib that Favre himself speculated about before the game. (Seriously, if we are going to waste all this time on Favre, shouldn't there be some sort of inquiry into the validity of all these suppossed injuries that he suffers yet heroically plays through? I am not calling BS on all them, but the level of exaggeration grows each year. At this point, it is hard to know what is real and what is myth when it comes to John Madden's favorite human being.

As for getting the offense to click, certainly having Adrian Peterson bust out a 75-yard scoring run on the first play from scrimmage helps. The Vikes offense "only" managed to score on two other drives, one starting out from deep inside Texans territory, but Favre orchestrated a nine-play, 74-yard drive that ended with a 28-yard catch and run score by Chester Taylor. They also had only one 3-and-out series with Mr. Wrangler Jeans directing traffic. With AP, Taylor, Bernard Berrian, rookie Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, Favre has plenty of weapons at his disposal and his familiarity with the playbook appears to be making the introduction to the players on the field an easy one, schism and all.

Fantasy owners need not fly Favre up their draft boards as the run-heavy attack will limit his numbers most weeks, but he could still post three touchdowns in a given game, making him a potential rotation fantasy option for some and a mid-to-high QB@2 for most.

- speaking of the ultra-quick Harvin, the in-game results were mixed (had three receptions for 31 yards, but missed a catchable pass in end zone and was flagged for two penalties), but the potential he flashed was bold and bright. The Vikes lined him all over the field, including as a wildcat QB with Favre sent out wide, and he showed the ability to break tackles in the open field. He will not be a week in, week out type option, but Harvin is the kind of lightning in the bottle type player that defenses fear (seriously, how will defenses be able to focus on him AND Peterson at the same time) and fantasy owners crave. His ADP has jumped two rounds since July, but his game breaking potential makes him a fair value and upside play as a WR3/flex type even in the 8th round.

- Watching AP sprint down the right sideline for that long score erased any lingering concerns I had about taking him with the #1 overall pick in an upcoming non-PPR draft (was debating trading the pick, not taking another player), but seeing that Chester Taylor score reminded me that I will also need to stock up on Maalox before the season starts.

- In terms of where he is going in drafts, Matt Schaub is my favorite fantasy quarterback this year outside of the top-4, but the brittle one showed once again why he is also one of the scariest passer options this season when he suffered an apparent ankle injury late in the first half. The Texans quarterback gutted out the drive, one that was capped off by a Steve Slaton score, but did not return, though the team said he could have if it was a regular season game. Since the injury factor is the biggest knock against Schaub, seeing him limp around did not change his ranking (7th on my draft board) in my eyes, but it emphasized the point that Schaub owners need to take a quality QB2 perhaps a round or two earlier than they normally would.

- Kevin Walter, another one of the Texans I love this year, went out in the first quarter with a hamstring injury and did not return. Walter's q-rating among fantasy owners has been rather low already and this will not help his cause, making the Texans #2 receiver a very attractive value pick around the 8th round, assuming the injury is not serious. Andre Davis would likely step in if Walter missed time and would be worth a roster spot in most leagues if pressed into service.

- In other news, the firing of Chiefs offensive coordinator Chan Gailey means Todd Haley will pull triple duty as rookie head coach, quarterbacks coach and veteran play caller, having served in that third role as the OC for the Cardinals during their Super Bowl run last season. Based on Haley's volume passing approach with the Cards, it was already assumed the Chiefs would throw early and often and those expectations may now be understated with their no longer being a middle man in Gailey calling the plays. This should be good news for Matt Cassel, once he returns from injury, along with Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs other receivers. The same cannot be said for the overvalued Larry Johnson, who caught only 12 passes last year and was already in danger of losing playing time to backup and third down RB Jamaal Charles.

Someone needs to explain to me...

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 14:18:00 -0400

Talking about various fantasy trends like Larry Johnson getting drafted to high, Brian Westbrook too low and why a certain rookie receiver is getting picked at all...

At this point in the pre-season, one's brain starts to get a little fried if you have been staring at the same names and numbers for as long as many of us have. Of course, anyone that has crammed for a test knows that you continually have to seek new ways to view the data so that you are sure all angles are covered and to help keep the info accessible in between your ears if current methods are becoming stale.

So, even after shaking up my research methodology this week (using Firefox instead of Internet Explorer, watching games on the recliner instead of the couch, going with Honest Tea over Diet Coke as the non-alcoholic beverage of choice), there are still some nuggets that surprise , if not outright stun me. We will discuss many of these topics on this week's FFToolbox podcast, but for now, someone needs to explain to me…

- Why Larry Johnson is still being drafted among the top-25 running backs.

This seems to be all about name recognition, because otherwise why would a soon-to-be 30-year old running back playing behind a weak o-line in a pass-happy offense with a young pup nipping at his heels for playing time be getting drafted like he is a RB2 option. Yes, LJ had solid overall numbers last year until you dig a little deeper and realize that he did most of his damage in four games:

4 games: 5.89 yards per carry (88 carries for 519 yards) and five touchdowns
The rest: 3.38 yards per carry (105 carries for 355 yards) with no scores

Included in those four games was a 28-198-2 performance against the hapless Broncos defense. Johnson averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in only three games of the 12 games he played as he missed at least four games for the second straight year. It is also hard to see how he will be a great fit in this pass-oriented attack - even more so now that Chan Gailey has been canned as OC and Todd Haley will call plays - when he posted a paltry 12 receptions for 74 yards last season, his lowest numbers since becoming a regular. Who outside of coach Haley's immediate family believes the Chiefs will be ahead in the fourth quarter often enough to feed Johnson the ball, a scenario that rarely played out last year as he had only game with at least 20 carries after Week 4. Also, at some point, don't we think the Chiefs new regime is going to want to see what Jamaal Charles, that young pup, can produce with a heavier workload?

Everyone has a fair value that comes into play and Johnson can be a spot starter/bye week option in the right matchups, but with all the potential downside, why jump on that grenade if better options exist. Take a promising player like Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart or any of the top rookie backs and let some jock sniffing owner in your league take a walk down memory lane with Johnson if they want...

- Why anyone is still drafting Jay Cutler among the top-10 quarterbacks.

Perhaps this is being a bit nitpicking, seeing as how Cutler's current ADP according to FFToolbox has him as the 10th passer going off the board. (Hopefully he does not demand a trade to ESPN.com or another fantasy site after reading this). And yes, his real world potential is up there and why Bears fans are rather sky high about not having to look at another pedestrian signal caller for the foreseeable future. However, the Bears remain a run-first team. Their group of wide receivers collectively may be the least impressive in the league heading into the season. The defense is strong, certainly good enough to avoid many lopsided scores in the second half, thus not affording Cutler the chance for many games with 35+ pass attempts like he had in Denver. The weather is not so hot in Chi-town the final two months of the season. Oh, it should also be pointed out that there are plenty of fantasy QB options to choose from.

Here are the passers I would definitely take over the Bears petchulant child of quarterback in some order: Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Warner, Rivers, Romo, Schaub, McNabb, Ryan, Palmer. The last four names all have a deeper assortment of passing game weapons, including legit #1 targets and only Ryan plays in a similar run-oriented attack.

There is a sharp drop among fantasy quarterbacks after the top 12-14 – especially if Matt Cassel misses significantly more time than just week one with his preseason injury – and Cutler's big arm potential makes for a fine starter IF he is paired with another strong passer, so I am not promoting a Jay Cutler boycott (though I would have been all for a bonfire of Broncos #6 jerseys over the summer).

Again, for those ready to send off a nasty gram of an email telling me how good Cutler looked Sunday night against his former team or how is a top shelf franchise quarterback, please realize we are talking fantasy football and not real football. Troy Aikman won three Super Bowls and he rarely was a sought after fantasy player...

- Why readers and fantasy owners are continuing to cling to the idea that the Cardinals backfield will be a pure RBBC long term.

I was one of those folks that bought into the Tim Hightower hype last year. That is, until I saw him play on a regular basis. Yes, the 2008 fifth-round pick scored 10 touchdowns and caught 34 passes, but he also showed poor instincts in terms of finding running lanes and averaged a horrific 2.8 yards per carry in the process. Hightower had only one – ONE – game with over 37 rushing yards despite the benching of Edgerrin James during the season and every defense the Cards faced dropping all but the nose tackle into pass coverage. Yet, even this very morning, I still get emails saying the Cards will use a backfield by committee and how I am wrong on Touchdown Timmy.

Hightower's new backfield partner, Chris "Beanie" Wells, is actually the bigger of the two, not to mention the far more talented runner, so the goal line touches will eventually fall the rookie's way. Now, Hightower will not be ignored, especially in the passing game since Wells is not a factor in that portion of the offense, hauling in only 15 receptions in three years at Ohio State. However, that alone does not a committee make or the same would be said about the situations in Minnesota and Atlanta. Wells will be the primary back and the Cards could actually look to run more this year now that the pass-heavy approach of former offensive coordinator Todd Haley has moved to Kansas City, giving more of an opportunity for Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt to install a more rugged approach on offense, harkening back to his days with the Steelers.

As the rook gets up to speed – Wells missed some time in camp and thus has not become the entrenched starter already despite strong showings, which may lead to explaining the aforementioned mindset - Hightower should have some value as a flex player very early on, but that is about it barring injury. Wells has a history of boo-boo's (and the most legit reason why someone might pass on him), so those that draft him should take Hightower as a handcuff, fair enough. However, as a standalone pick, I'd rather take fading starters who will have consistent touches like Jamal Lewis, youngsters who have not been exposed yet like LeSean McCoy or more all-around backup types like Ahmad Bradshaw and Fred Jackson...

- Why rookies like Wells and Donald Brown are going in drafts a full 2-3 rounds later than fellow rookie Knowshon Moreno, who has missed almost all of the preseason with a sprained MCL and is playing alongside three backs (Buckhalter, Jordan, Hillis) that figure to get touches. Moreno likely ends with the best rookie stats, but the margin between him and the competition is not two rounds difference, not even close.
- Why an owner, in any format, would reach on Tony Gonzalez in the 4th or 5th round instead of waiting for the likes of Owen Daniels, John Carlson or Dustin Keller four to five rounds later.
- Why Kevin Walter seems to get scant respect in the fantasy world.
- Why someone in a non-PPR league would take T. J. Houshmandzadeh over his former tag team receiving partner Chad Ochocinco.
- Why Brian Westbrook is falling out of the top 10-14 picks in 12+ team leagues now that he is back practicing and reportedly without incident.
- Why anyone in a non-keeper league is bothering drafting Jeremy Maclin this year. Rookie receivers take time to develop, let alone those that did not play in a pro-style offense in college like the former Mizzou star. Next year.
- Why so few are noticing that the sneaky fantasy play among Eagles receivers is Jason Avant, who is their "emerging go-to receiver" according to this article.
- Why anyone bothered seeing that G.I. Joe flick over the far, far superior "District 9".
- Why sooooo many owners are blindly stating that Larry Fitzgerald is the flat out #1 fantasy receiver this year when an equal or perhaps better case can be made for Andre Johnson, Randy Moss or even Calvin Johnson.
- Why I seem to be the only one that thinks Steve Smith will be the top Giants receiver this season.
- Why after all these years owners still bother taking a kicker anywhere before their next-to-last round pick. The rule applies this year to all kickers not named Gostkowski and even then, think long and hard.
- Why, after she starred in a big summer movie and was seemingly on the cover of every magazine this summer, any males between the ages of 13-50 do not know who Megan Fox is at this point. (Seriously, two of my now former friends recently told me they had no clue who she was moments before they burst into flames upon seeing her impressive photo "resume".) Maybe hosting the season premiere of Saturday Night Live or potentially playing the role of Catwoman in the next Batman flick will help.

Podcast reminder: Tuesday, 7pm. We will answer your phone and email questions as well as break down the WR and TE rankings and sleepers, discuss the news of the day, including the latest Brandon Marshall mess, what to make of the Chiefs now that Matt Cassel is dinged and OC Chan Gailey is gone and which teams are playoff/Super Bowl bound

Mailbag Time

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:57:00 -0400

Living in the Washington, D.C. area, there is nothing funnier than being out for a drink with a group of serious people who are talking about the political news of the day, the economy, etc and then having them do a total 180 when they find out I write about fantasy football. Suddenly, they do not care so much about bailouts and oil prices but whether they should spend major auction dollars on Tom Brady (yes) or if Roy Williams will put up Terrell Owens-like numbers in Dallas (no).

As the song goes, it's 5:00 somewhere so let's keep Happy Hour going with the first mailbag of the season. If you want to join the fun, either on the blog or via our weekly podcast, email your questions to advice@fftoolbox.com...

Name: Adam B.
Location: Parkland, FL

12 team league
QB's getting 4 points per TD and WR, TE, and RB get 6. One keeper player per team not drafted in top 5 rounds from previous season.
Question: If picking 8th in round #1 and having Chris Johnson as your keeper would you still go RB in round #1 or would you look at guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andre Johnson?

Ben Standig: In non-PPR leagues, the only running backs I would definitively take over top receivers are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Johnson, and Steven Jackson with Steve Slaton and Frank Gore right in the mix as well. Now, considering you have Johnson in the fold already and I like the overall depth at running back better than receiver, I would tab Andre Johnson or one of the other big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson) at number eight...

Name: Jim
Location: Washington, DC
League Size: 12
League Details: 2RB, 2WR, TE

Question: The perception is that Eli Manning is a viable fantasy QB but his numbers last year were almost identical to Jason Campbell who is not perceived as a viable fantasy starter. Given the WR and TE corps of both teams – on draft day your next selection was to fill you QB slot and these 2 were the best available, who would you select?

BS: Considering Eli threw for 21 touchdowns compared to 13 for Campbell, it does seem hard to believe that they were respectively 13th and 14th in terms of total QB points last year, but the Redskins passer made up the difference with an additional 248 yards on the ground. The loss of Plaxico Burress will make it more challenging for Manning to reach the 20+ touchdown plateau for the 5th straight year, but his overall better supporting cast takes some pressure off him on the field even as the New York media applies a heaping does off it. If Hakeem Nicks or Domenik Hixon emerges as a consistent playmaker, Manning could sneak into QB1 territory, but consider him around the top tier of QB2 options and potential rotation play come draft day.

On the other hand, it is hard to consider Campbell as anything more than a pure backup, especially playing behind a solid but aging offensive line that is one injury away from imploding. He is also waiting for the Redskins young receivers to earn playing time (Malcolm Kelly is the best bet to contribute this year) and considering that management tried to bring in his replacement this off-season, Campbell could be in danger of losing his gig if the Redskins are struggling around the halfway point of the season. The former Auburn star could get the boost that comes from playing for a new contract, but too much has to go right for him to be fantasy viable...

Name: JD
Location Elmira N.Y.

League size 12
Total points and we play three IDP not teams. You have to draft you're starting 11 in the first segment ( 1 QB; 2 Rb; 3wr; 1te; 1kicker and 3idp). During the second section you can pick anybody.
Question: I have third pick in first round ( I intend to take best rb with the first pick). If both are available would you pick either Jones Drew or Forte?

BS: Like most I would put Adrian Peterson at the top of any standard scoring draft list, but MJD and Forte are my favorite players among that elite tier. The stats that the human bowling ball has put up – 38 touchdowns and an average of 1,300 yards from scrimmage over the past three seasons – while sharing the backfield with Fred Taylor are truly impressive and now he has vast majority of touches to himself. Forte also is the king of the Bears backfield castle and his rookie season was stellar, but there is potential for more emphasis on the passing game now that Jay Cutler is in town. I would give the slight nod to Jones-Drew and just hope the extra workload doesn't decrease his productivity in the latter stages of the season...

Name: Anil N.
Location: Alexandria, VA
Question: I'm in a 10 team league and have the 10th pick. The league heavily favors the passing game. The top 3 QB's went in the first round. I will be looking to pick up a QB in the 4th round at the earliest, but might wait. Who should I target there, guessing that my options will be between the following- McNabb, Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Ryan?

BS: The good thing about the quarterback position is that there is no need to panic as there are plenty of options to ponder. However, in a league that gives added weight to the passing game and assuming Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers are off the board, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer offer the most upside of the players you mentioned.

The swap Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett knocks Cutler down the QB list for starters while Ryan still plays in a run-oriented attack. The Eagles offense could score a ton of points this year, but McNabb, who tossed 23 touchdown passes last year, has not thrown for 20+ plus scores in back-to-back years since the 2000-01 seasons.

On the other hand, Schaub is playing in potentially the breakout attack of the season and his per game average will likely be among the best in fantasy this year. The injury factor and lack of name recognition compared with the others mentioned is bumping his ADP down, but be sure to get a quality QB2 if you go with Schaub as your starter. Palmer's history shows that he can be a prolific fantasy QB option and despite a minor ankle tweak in camp, all signs point to another strong year for the Bengals passing game...

Name: Jed
Location: Springfield, MA

League Size: 14
League Details: PPR, 2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D

Question: In a very deep league, what do you think about the idea of focusing on QB and D (where position scarcity is a big issue) and waiting on RB and WR? I think it'll work, but I'm nervous that I'll end up starting guys like Fargas and Camarillo.

BS: This is not a bad year to wait on running backs if needed because there is significant depth this campaign, largely due to all the RBBC situations. Starters like Cedric Benson and Willie Parker are falling just outside the top-30 running backs selected and significant backups like Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood and Chester Taylor are even later. However, the receiver crop in my eyes takes a hit in value once you start getting into the WR3 category and after players like Derrick Mason and Torry Holt. I would not shy away from taking receivers, especially in leagues where you start three or more, in the early half of the draft.

As I mentioned earlier, there are 10-14 worthy QB1 options out there so you do need to grab one early on, though I do think the quality backups dry up quickly after players like David Garrard and Kyle Orton. The good thing is there are almost always starters available on the waiver wire most weeks so you can always get someone. The same holds true for defenses, which is why unless your league gives major bonus points for performance, there should be no significant focus on that position until the latter stages of a draft...

Name: Jason
Location: Kansas City, MO

League Size: 14
League Details: point per reception, 3 wr's, 2 RB's and a flex
Question: What is Peyton Hillis's fantasy value at starting FB with Buckhalter, Jordan, and Moreno in front of him?

BS: The reason I added this question, considering Hillis remains little more than an early season waiver wire candidate, is because it is crucial to ignore the perceived draft chart pecking order and actually look at what is happening on the ground, especially once the season has begun. In the case of Hillis, the Broncos are not likely going to use a traditional fullback, so he will need to fight for touches with all those mouths to feed, but he has built upon his strong 2008 performance with reportedly top notch training camp. Buckhalter remains the best handcuff option for Moreno owners, but keep track of how the Broncos divvy up their playing time early on. The same can be said for other crowded backfields, including the Patriots, Ravens, Seahawks and Bucs...

Running backs dominate round one in FanEx draft

Sat, 22 Aug 2009 13:43:00 -0400

This month I had the honor of representing FFToolbox in the long running FanEx Expert League. It took approximately two weeks to complete, but as far as I know, all made it through the trek with nary a scratch (though I felt like punching someone when LeSean McCoy was snatched one pick before I was set to bring him into the fold as Brian Westbrook's backup). The other sites participating included The Huddle, USA Today, Sports Grumblings, Fox Sports, Fanball, Fantasy Sharks, RotoExperts and Youth Fantasy Football.

For now I have the first five rounds laid out below, along with my entire roster, but you can click here to see the entire draft. The season will play out for those that want to follow along.

League: 12 teams, Points per Reception (PPR)
Rounds: 20
Lineup: QB – 1, RB -2, WR – 3, TE -1, K -1, Def – 1, Flex -1 (RB/WR/TE)

ROUND 1

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Maurice Jones-Drew
3. Matt Forte
4. Michael Turner
5. USA Today - Chris Johnson
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Steve Slaton - FFToolbox
8. LaDainian Tomlinson
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Steven Jackson
11. Randy Moss
12. Frank Gore

FFT: It was between Slaton and SJax and in the end I sided with the player in the much better offense. I have seen Slaton picked anywhere from top-5 to early second, but in a PPR format, I think he is worth the "risk" this early. Call me optimistic, but I think the Texans offense should be one of the best this year, meaning Slaton will have plenty of scoring opportunities.

Others: Many say do not take Adrian Peterson #1 in PPR leagues, but I think Turner at four is more of a reach in this format. I like Jackson better than Williams, but LT2 is gaining momentum as we get closer to opening day. Two receivers going in the first round is becoming the norm and possibly the low end of normal based on other drafts I've seen.

ROUND 2

1. (13) Andre Johnson
2. (14) Greg Jennings
3. (15) Clinton Portis
4. (16) Brandon Jacobs
5. (17) Calvin Johnson
6. (18) Brian Westbrook - FFToolbox
7. (19) Steve Smith
8. (20) Reggie Wayne
9. (21) Marion Barber
10. (22) Roddy White
11. (23) Anquan Boldin
12. (24) Dwayne Bowe

FFT: The initial plan was to take a receiver from the group of Jennings, Wayne and Smith, but I also did not think Westbrook would still be on the board. At the time of the pick, Westbrook had yet to return to practice so it was a risk, but now that he is back, this could be the pick that puts me over the top when it is all said and done. Now hoping one of the top-10 receivers is still available in the third.

Others: It pains me to say it as a Redskins fan, but there were other players available that I liked more than Portis, who is playing behind a beat up offensive line. In general, I like the order of the receivers, though despite love for Jennings this year, it would be hard to pass on Johnson. All of the pass catchers are looking like big time players this year.

[More]

Report Favre to sign with Vikings on Tuesday: fantasy implications

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:16:00 -0400

Hey guess what...Brett Favre is coming back...shocker. Too bad all the confetti was already used on the previous "here he comes" moments. ESPN and other outlets are reporting that Favre will sign with the Vikings on Tuesday for a reported $10-12 million (I assume a one-year deal, but could be for 5-years the way Favre goes). We will discuss breaking news and other NFL/fantasy football nuggets in greater detail tonight on the 2009 season premiere episode of the FFToolbox Podcast.

Ok, taking away all the annoyance of the will he or won't he aspect of the Favre drama, the question on everyone's mind now is when he will see the field and where should he be drafted in fantasy leagues.

For those uber-casual fans that haven't bought a fantasy magazine since Antonio Freeman was still in the league, please note that despite all the buzz, Favre is not the folk hero he used to be, though he was effective early on for the Jets last season. Ok, the questions:

When: Let's assume the reports are true and today is the day Favre dons the purple. The good news is he has played in a similar offense for most of his career, so other than some terminology differences or tweaks that Vikings staff have implemented, Favre should be able to adapt quickly. Of course, playbook is one thing, getting into a rhythm with the other players is another and why I suspect he gets out onto the field ASAP.

The Vikings next game is at home this Friday. My initial thought is that is too soon, but I would not be shocked if the Vikes at least allude to #4 playing in the game to get a full house in these tough economic times. More likely, he would see real action 10 days later when Minnesota travels to Houston. Current Vikes starter Sage Rosenfels spent the last few years with the Texans and he likely was looking forward to this game as a Welcome back/Check me out type event, but now he will just become one of the other Kardashian sisters answering questions all day long about their sister Kim. Sounds like fun.

[More]

Ben's Fantasy Football Quarterback Analysis

Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:22:00 -0400

After keeping the new-fangled FFToolbox.com blog parked for most of the off-season, it is time bring her out and see what she can do. Starting now and basically until I get carpal tunnel, expect updates, analysis, news, nuggets and random musings about fantasy football, the NFL, the world of sports and whatever else pops into my mind.

In addition, starting this Tuesday from 7:00-7:30 pm EST, I will be hosting the FFToolbox Podcast where I, along with our writers and other special guests, will be answering your important calls and email questions throughout the season. We will breakdown the week that was, analyze changes in our player rankings, tout the hot free agents and provide a look ahead. The immediate focus is of course on getting everyone ready to go for their upcoming league drafts and this week will looking at the Quarterbacks, from where you should start considering drafting the top guns, to who presents the best value and which passers should you let another some other team take a swing at. We'll also tackle team defense along with any breaking news as FFToolbox writers George Bissell and Vin Sadicario stop by to help with the heavy lifting.

As a primer for the podcast and after slogging through several experts' league mock drafts, including one nearly completed version that will play out, I wanted to lay out my own take on this year's crop of Quarterbacks. Below is my top-20 with each player's current ADP (Average Draft Position) shown next to their name and detailed look at the different tiers below.

1	Tom Brady	15.8	11	Jay Cutler	85.9
2	Drew Brees	15.4	12	Carson Palmer	84.1
3	Peyton Manning	27.4	13	Ben Roethlisberger	100.8
4	Aaron Rodgers	37.4	14	Matt Cassel	106.8
5	Philip Rivers	44.5	15	Matt Hasselbeck	106.9
6	Tony Romo	58.5	16	Kyle Orton	121.8
7	Donovan McNabb	60.3	17	David Garrard	133.4
8	Matt Schaub	72.3	18	Eli Manning	118.3
9	Kurt Warner	50.5	19	Trent Edwards	120.9
10	Matt Ryan	72.4	20	Sage Rosenfels*	157.5

* This was posted a couple of hours before the breaking Favre news. Updated below

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Recapping the Mock

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 13:27:00 -0400

Timing is everything and my plans to catch part of the Washington Wizards morning workout with Arizona State guard James Harden were derailed, in part due to a quicker than expected session and DC traffic. I was really hoping to catch Harden since I have yet to understand all the hype that surrounds him, but I can take solace in that Memphis guard Tyreke Evans, Ohio State center B.J. Mullens and Georgia Tech forward Alade Aminu are scheduled later this afternoon. So, instead of heading back to my couch to watch a "Scrubs" rerun, I'll spend some time looking back at the recently completed fantasy football mock draft I participated in on behalf of FFToolbox. Take a look at the link to see the entire draft and toss out your thoughts on those picks where you thought I was channeling Bill Polian or when my inner Matt Millen got the best of me.

I had the 11th pick in the 12-team, 16-round, PPR-draft. This early on in the fantasy draft season, I was fine picking that late in round one. Outside of Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew in PPR-leagues, I think there is little that separates those picked in the first round, so I was happy with getting the high second round pick. Ok, the roster:

- Manning and Moss are clearly in the top-5, if not higher, at their respective positions. I won't claim I am in love with Peyton this season, but the downside is minimal obviously. Typically I prefer taking my quarterback around the sixth round or later and while Manning was good value late in the third, in retrospect it might have made more sense to wait based on where guys like Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub landed. Since Manning is a must-start option each week, I waited for a backup and in the end decided to wait it out entirely. There are always quarterbacks available, in this case Chad Pennington and the two hot rookies among them, so I can address that early in the season.

- With Tom Brady returning, I think Moss could have another monster season. Bottom line, there are some players that regardless of what else is happening, scare me to no end when it is my week to play against them. Manning and Moss are at the top of that list.

- Gore was my first round selection and I think he has a lot of value at #11. With the Niners going to more of a ground and pound approach, combined with his ability in the passing game, Gore could be a top-5 back this season. In a perfect world I would have taken his backup since Gore has been known to miss a game or two, but that situation is not totally settled this far out, though rookie Glen Coffee would have been my choice

- Clark ranks just outside the top-level tight ends, but with Marvin Harrison gone, I think Clark has a chance at leading the Colts in receptions and be the number two fantasy option behind Regiie Wayne. Though I love the Colts tight end, I Celek really impressed down the stretch and he has a great shot at being Donovan McNabb's top red zone option.

- After watching Edwards drop pass after pass last season, I was not that excited to bring him back into the fold. Still, he is the receiving threat on the Browns, a team that figures to lose a lot this season so his numbers should be improved. If Edwards stays on his hit or miss track, Walter is more than a capable fill in as long as Schaub is at the helm for the Texans and for Smith to be a PPR gem with the Giants.

- Nothing concrete with my second RB, but I think Rice could be my breakout sleeper pick this year. The former Rutgers star is looking more and more like he will be the starter with the Ravens and he already has the PPR credentials with 33 grabs in limited action last season. Willis McGahee on the roster does not faze me, but Le'Ron McClain presence will likely keep Rice's touchdown totals down. Wells could fall out of bed and get 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns in the Cardinals high-powered offense, though this poor pass receiving skills lessen his value in this format. He should take over for Hightower sooner than later, but I still wanted Timmy Touchdown as a handcuff just in case. Between Rice and Wells, I should patch that RB2 slot together early on until (hopefully) one of them emerges.

- Bradshaw will be hard to start, but he should see enough touches to be a bye-week option. Not so much with Betts, but every year I think Clinton Portis is going to take one too many hits and let Betts shine as he did in the 2006 season. One could argue that since neither player is the backup to one of my either backs and not likely to become the starter on their own team barring injury, I should have taken one more upside RB instead. Eh, maybe.

- Getting Ed Reed alone is worth taking the Ravens defense and Kris Brown should have plenty of chances with the Texans.

- Jones in the 15th is a total flyer based on him being a free agent and given his off-the-field issuesHowever, it just takes one team to take a chance and he looked impressive on the field with the Jags last season. I mean, if he signed with say the Bears or the Rams or the Jets, would he not become a starter sooner than later and in the case of the first two teams, potentially the #1 target?

Initial thoughts on initial fantasy football mock

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 10:57:00 -0400

Early, early fantasy draft thoughts based on nearly six completed rounds of the first mock draft I have participated in this year. FFToolbox picked 11th in this PPR, 12-team league with standard scoring and snake draft. Pick player was drafted at shown in parenthesis...

Outside of Adrian Peterson (2), there will be little consensus in first round order. AP is a near mortal lock to be the top pick in standard leagues and he will be top-3 in all imaginable formats.
The casual fan that is focusing more on summer vacation than fantasy football state may be surprised that Maurice Jones-Drew (1) was the top pick in this format, but it is hard to argue against. MJD was highly ranked in this format a year ago and generated nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage despite the numerous issues with the Jags offense last season. Yes, the human bowling bowl is ranked high despite never having a 1,000 rush season, but he racks up the receiving stats (62-565-2 last season), has a nose for the end zone (38 TDs from scrimmage over the last three seasons) and Fred Taylor is gone. He will go lower in standard leagues, but not much.
From there, look for the remaining picks to be about the eye of the beholder more than collective group think.
- Michael Turner (5) and Matt Forte (6) appear to be the safest bets to go in the top-6 in all formats. Both are all-around performers with little to no competition for carries while playing with a top talent at QB.
- The uber-quick Chris Johnson (7) is sure to be an exciting pick in the first round, but the large, large shadow cast by goal line vulture Lendale White keeps him from being consensus top-5. Big fan of CJ this season.
- Brian Westbrook (3) and LaDainian Tomlinson (4) still have strong Q ratings and will have their loyalists, especially in PPR leagues, but both could easily slide to the later stages of the first round as well. Both went too early in my opinion, but if healthy, they remain in good positions to succeed. Of course that "if" remains a little large for me and I will be thrilled in my future drafts if another owner falls on these grenades. Same can be said for Clinton Portis (21) in standard leagues.
- Steven Jackson (8) will be a top-5 pick in many leagues, but an equal number of owners - especially those like me that have been burned by his erratic production - will not drooling over the dreadlocked one. He could emerge as something close to a consensus top-5 pick with a strong training camp, but the Rams offense still has many questions.
- Frank Gore, my pick at #11, is looking like a safe bet to go in the first round. Positive vibes are coming out the Bay Area, in part because of Mike Singletary's leadership, not to mention a renewed focus on the ground game and a more efficient offense in place.
- DeAngelo Williams (10) is the hardest player to grade. Williams had an unreal 2008 season and based on those numbers should be a very early pick. However, Jonathan Stewart was viewed as the better fantasy option at this point last year and he is not going away. Plus, the Panthers face a very rough and tumble NFL schedule this season. I'd rather get Stewart (65) in the later rounds than take Williams in the first.
- In this era of two-back systems, receivers, especially in PPR leagues, will be drafted earlier and more often than in years past. I'd rather take my chances on Larry Fitzgerald (9), Randy Moss (14, my pick), Andre Johnson (12) and a handful of other receivers over Williams, Portis, Barber (16) and Jacobs (20). This could be the year to go WR-WR if you pick late in round one.
- Marshawn Lynch (36) is going to be a nice value, even with a three-game suspension looming, if he drops this far in actual drafts.
- The salad days of Larry Johnson (54) are clearly over and rightfully so.
- Knowshon Moreno (46) will be the top rookie selected unless Chris "Beanie" Wells (59, my pick) establishes himself in training camp as the clear starter.
- Though drafted appropriately in my opinion, Joseph Addai (47) has a chance to be a major steal if he can keep rookie Donald Brown at bay and actually score on those short-yardage opportunities the Colts offense is sure to provide.
- There are better ways to spend a beautiful weekend than say debating whether to take Dallas Clark (62, my pick) over the remaining RBs, yet everyone that knew I was participating in the mock passionately wanted to add their two cents. The NFL remains king, no matter the season.

Free Agency Frenzy PM edition - Broncos running game remains a fantasy nightmare

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:18:00 -0400

Day one evening roundup: Broncos have a new backfield, Kerry Collins stays put and T.J. Houshmandzadeh starts his tour...

The Broncos are giving the Redskins a run for their money in terms of free agency action on day one, though they are going with the volume approach, signing a wide receiver, safety, center/long snapper and two running backs. In addition, they are rumored to be adding or in the discussion to obtain a couple of high profile defenders, Eagles safety Brian Dawkins and Ravens LB Ray Lewis.

From a fantasy perspective, the Broncos backfield looks to be as maddening ever with former Eagles RB Correll Buckhalter and former Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington joining fullback Peyton Hillis. Look for Buckhalter to receiver the bulk of the carries on the early downs with Arrington to stay in his familiar passing down role and Hillis to take the short yardage touches. Ryan Torian also remains on the roster. In other words, this RBBC will negate any of them from being viewed as anything more than a flex or bye week option come draft time..

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Free Agency Frenzy AM edition - Redskins just cannot help themselves

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:22:00 -0400

Before breaking down Kellen Winslow to the Bucs, changes in the Ravens defense and a new home for Freddie T...

Hearing that Redskins owner Dan Snyder once again majorly opened up his checkbook at the start of NFL free agency, after showing some fiscal restraint last season, is like hearing that story about the domesticated chimpanzee attacking someone; try as you might to change them, eventually nature runs its course.

For the vast majority of the past decade, the Redskins have thrown money around to sign players like an addict needing a quick fix. With apologies to Fleetwood Mac, the Dan Snyder era has rarely thought about tomorrow when a major signing today will do the trick, no matter the long-term ramifications or the media and fan scorn likely to follow. After mostly staying out of the free agent pool last season (due in large part to previous mismanagement of high priced acquisitions), the team could not wait to dive into the deep end and start splashing the Benjamin's all around.

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