Week 6: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
Going into Sunday's match-up vs. San Francisco, Fitzpatrick was leading QBs for touchdowns. He had a poor outing in Week 5 with just 126 passing yards with no scores and an interception. He is now third in the league with 12 TDs. This week he faces a stout Arizona defense that could pose similar issues. The Buffalo offense has not looked great of late. The rushing attack has settled down and the passing game is suffering too. The team's defensive unit is not pressuring opponent offenses and this means that Fitzpatrick will be throwing to try to keep pace. In my opinion, this is not positive news. If Fitz and his receivers are scrutinized by defenses, the likelihood of turnovers and incomplete passes increases dramatically. Look for Arizona to stifle the run early and then focus their attention on the passing game. I project less than 190 passing yards with one TD and two interceptions this week.
McGahee and the Denver rushing attack are potentially becoming a second thought. Manning has shown that he can control the offense with his passing ability. As long as Manning and his receivers continue to be in sync, John Fox will not hesitate to use McGahee and the other backs as back-up. In Week 6 McGahee faces the San Diego defense that was ranked in the top five in Weeks 1-4. I think both teams will focus on the passing game this week and Denver will win this game through the air. McGahee has Hillman and Ball to worry about in terms of splitting carries and this means that if the running game is sidetracked that production will decrease. This week I foresee less than 60 yards rushing and no score for McGahee.
Besides his Week 1 performance, Garcon has been a huge fantasy disappointment. Many fantasy owners have been waiting for Garcon to return to action and produce. The waiting game appears to continue. He was touted as a top receiver this season and now that RGIII is out Garcon's fantasy value drops even more. The foot injury that Garcon has been battling is also a matter of concern. I suggest watching his production over the next few weeks with match-ups vs. Minnesota, New York and Pittsburgh. If his production kicks up, he might be worth a start; if not, we might not see many productive weeks. Garcon's average fantasy week has been about 9.5 points and this is skewed by his 17 points in Week 1. This week he is projected to score 7 points and this equates to about 3-4 receptions for 40-50 yards and no score.
I doubt you can argue that New York's passing attack is stellar. Sanchez and his wide outs have been struggling. Kerley appears to be the best option for Sanchez and has been working both in the slot and on the outside. In Monday's loss to Houston Kerley grabbed 5 receptions for 94 yards. I do not think this is indicative of Kerley's weekly production moving forward. You might think that New York's match-up vs. Indianapolis this week is favorable, but I am going to play the odds. The odds show that Kerley's production is like a roller coaster, up one week and down the next. Week 6 looks to be a down week. Even in his most productive weeks, Kerley has few receptions and has been lucky enough to catch one for a score. I think we will see Kerley catch 2-3 receptions for less than 35 yards this week without a score.
So far this season Little has had two goose egg weeks and only one week with double-digit fantasy numbers. Liittle's propensity for dropped passes is a major concern. The coaching staff and passers have to question his ability to make plays. This week Cleveland faces Cincinnati. This match-up does not appear to be too difficult on paper, but Little cannot be trusted in my opinion. Many fantasy owners were hoping he would turn out to be a threat at wide out three and flex options this season, but he has not proven his worth. I am considering sending him to waivers in my fourteen team league. There are plenty of other receivers to take a chance on. This week we will likely see 1-2 receptions for less than 30 yards and no score.