Week 10: PPR Watch
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Confident - A few weeks ago I mentioned Myers as a sleeper, and in the last three weeks he's moved well up the TE ranks to the point that he has to be considered a starter. And a pretty good one. Averaging over 8 targets a game, and 6 receptions, he's 5th in scoring at the position and is starting to find the endzone with 2 scores. Carson Palmer is 5th in passing attempts for the season, so there's plenty of balls to go around. Baltimore isn't the scary matchup they used to be without Lewis roaming the middle, and are in the bottom 10 in receptions allowed to TEs. Smart owners are stocking multiple TEs and playing the matchups this year, and Myers is clearly a hot hand. Keep riding him until he gives you a reason to feel differently.
Confident - Jennings is a pretty big drop off from MJD, and I think we've seen enough of him at this point to be sure that he's a flex play at best, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Still, for PPR, Jennings is getting it done, and this is a great week to use him against a Colts defense allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to RBs. Over the last 3 weeks, Jennings has had more targets than any running back with 21, netting 16 receptions for 121 yards. Those kind of receiving numbers make for a nice safety net, making him pretty reliable for a back that doesn't score a lot. If he is going to find the end zone, this is a good week to do it, with Indy already allowing double digit scores to the position.
Confident - A tight-end that has consistently disappointed owners over the years, Olsen started off fairly nicely, but has fallen off the last 5 weeks. Over that span, he's just 25th amongst TEs in points per game in PPR scoring, and he hasn't scored a touchdown. Pretty painful numbers for a guy that's still started in about 30% of leagues. His 22 targets in the last 4 games isn't terrible, but he's come away with just 14 receptions for 139 yards. So how can I be confident? Well, to start with he had a solid enough week 9 in PPR, with 5 catches on 9 targets for 48 yards. Nothing to get too excited about (especially against a weak Redskins defense), but it does show there are at least still trying to get him involved, and who can you get excited about at TE lately? This week Carolina is against a Denver defense that is top 5 against WRs in fantasy, but has given up the third most points to TEs, including 6 TDs -- tied for second worst. It's no sure thing, but I'm looking for Cam to lean on Olsen more than usual in another good matchup.
Caution - You can say the same thing about Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram, but I chose Thomas because he's probably the most desirable of the three. Let me be clear: There is little doubt that Saints running backs will probably put up some points; one of them will score, one of them will have 4 or 5 catches, and one of them will probably have 80-100 total yards. If you're lucky, one of them might even have all 3 of those, but who really wants to roll the dice that they picked the right one? Last week the workload was split pretty evenly between all three, with Thomas leading the way with 38% of snaps then Ingram at 32% and Ivory at 23%. Thomas was in near the goalline on a couple of series, and we know he can catch the ball, but I just can't play him this week against Atlanta. The Falcons have been pretty solid on defense, allowing less than 100 yards rushing a game to opposing RBs. You could definitely do worse than Thomas, but I'm hoping you can also do better.
Sleeper - Hilton has the speed and hands to develop into a very nice receiver in this Colts offense. His size suggests he'll be more of a possession receiver, but he's had some big plays down field, and shown some solid run after the catch ability as well. His role in the offense seems to be growing -- overall 18th in targets over the last 3 weeks and second only to Reggie Wayne in snap percentage on the Colts (71%). This week the surging Colts get a Jags secondary that's been vulnerable all year, and there is really no reason to think Hilton won't get another 7-10 targets. With Luck throwing 42 times a game, I'd not only own Hilton, but I'd probably play him most weeks with a favorable matchup.