Week 14: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
Fantasy playoffs are upon most of us. Now is the time to consider your options and make the best possible roster decisions. This week I have a QB that appears viable, but faces a surging Denver team; a reach at RB with a brutal match-up; a bunch of wide outs for various reasons and our friend Vernon Davis.
Bush and his team are not playing well enough of late to make him a viable start. Some match-ups have suggested a flex roster spot for Bush, but this week he faces an extremely stingy San Francisco defense that is ranked first against the run. We saw New England's solid front pose issues for Bush last week and you have probably noted his inconsistent play if you have tried to start him. Over the first eleven games of the season San Fran has only allowed about 12 fantasy points to RBs per game. If Bush splits any time with Thomas, which is highly likely, his value drops significantly in this scenario. Bush has received more of the workload recently, but this does not mean much in a struggling offense. Look for Bush to get his 8-12 carries this week, but do not expect more than 50-60 yards rushing with a couple of short yardage receptions.
Fitzgerald is still a stud wide out. Unfortunately, he has fallen victim to a quarterback shuffle that is not going well. Kolb, Skelton and now Lindley have not provided much opportunity for Fitz to get his game on. The last few weeks have been awful. Now Lindley faces Seattle's number two ranked defense against wide outs. Seattle allows an average of 17 total fantasy points to wide outs per game. Lindley is struggling to get the ball anywhere. He threw 10 completions of 31 passes thrown for 72 yards and an interception vs. New York. Seattle is going to have a field day this week. Fitz grabbed one of seven targets last Sunday for 23 yards. I hope he does better this week and project 3-4 receptions for 40-50 yards, but not start-worthy.
Jennings returned this past week after sitting out eight weeks. Rodgers went right back to one of his favorite targets, sending eight passes Jenning's direction. He hauled in four passes for 46 yards. This week Green Bay faces Detroit, whom they also faced in Week 11. That week, Rodgers had a decent outing, but not spectacular. This week it appears that Jordy Nelson might be limited or out with a hamstring injury sustained last week. You can view this from multiple perspectives. I see this as an opportunity for Detroit's defense to cue up schemes to limit Jennings and Cobb significantly. If this occurs, Rodgers will have to better utilize his other targets, something he can do well. Look for Jennings to have less of an impact in this game than you might expect. I think he will be covered well and snag 4-5 receptions for 60-70 yards. In non-PPR formats this could hurt.
LaFell's Week 11 and 12 performances made him a solid flex option. He was continuing his bounce back from two lower production weeks when he injured his foot against Kansas City and had to exit the game in Week 13. According to multiple reports, it appears he has a sprain. I would think that LaFell would play this week if he can. Watch his status, but also consider the match-up. Atlanta gives up an average of 18 points to wide outs and is ranked in the top seven defenses vs. the pass. If LaFell does not play, Louis Murphy and Armanti Edwards would receive more snaps and Atlanta's defense will likely target Steve Smith and limit his fantasy contribution.
Many fantasy owners were expecting a bit more in terms of fireworks from White this season. He has had only one spectacular week all season and that was in Week 4 when he faced Carolina. Atlanta is playing Carolina again this week. At this point in the season, Carolina's defense is allowing an average of about 19 fantasy points per game to receivers. For me, the decision to sit White comes from the past few down weeks out of Matt Ryan. Ryan's consistency has not been there and this means his receivers will not be as productive. Carolina is giving up the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers and that is nothing to shrug off. If Ryan is not on his game then White's value could suffer this week. I am projecting 5 receptions for 65 yards, but no score. In non-PPR formats this is not that great come fantasy playoffs.
Hopefully you traded Davis away before your trade deadline or never drafted him to begin with. He has wreaked havoc on many a fantasy roster this season. The weeks I really needed Davis, he failed me big time. After a three game slide, Davis finally threw some points his fantasy owners' directions in Week 11. He then turned around and killed us in Week 12 with a goose egg in the column and only gained 15 yards on two receptions last week. This week SanFran is up against Mimai. Miami is middle of the pack defensively vs. TEs and Davis is not performing. If you are in your fantasy playoffs and hoping that Davis is your answer, he is not. Four of his five TDs came in Weeks 1-3. Look for 2-3 receptions this week for 30-40 yards and no score.