Week 15: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
Fantasy playoffs are upon most of us. Now is the time to consider your options and make the best possible roster decisions.
So far this season, some of the better pass defenses have kept Tony Romo and his receiving core at bay. Romo had been extremely productive lately until his low numbers from last week vs. Cincinnati. This week will prove to be a test. Dallas is working to stay in the playoff hunt and Pittsburgh will put their best effort forth to limit Romo and his wide outs. Pittsburgh's run defense is not quite as solid as their pass defense, so I expect to see DeMarco Murray let loose this week. As for Romo, he faces the number one ranked defense vs. QBs, allowing an average of 11.5 fantasy points per game to the position. Romo is going to have his work cut out for him. He slides from 11th on the season to 16th this week for QBs. If you need your QB to put up more than 15-16 points this week, Romo might not be your man. There are some other QBs out there who could have value in your playoff hunt. I would expect just over 200 passing yards with one TD and as many as three INTs -- he threw 5 vs. Chicago and 4 vs. New York.
Detroit is out of the NFC playoff picture. Arizona's defense is ranked fourth vs. QBs, allowing an average of 13 fantasy points per game. Stafford has been very productive most weeks this season. Howoever, he has thrown nearly one interception per game. Over the past two weeks he has completed only about 60% of his passes or about 27 completions on 45 passes. On the season, Stafford ranks inside the top ten QBs. This week he slides down the rankings and could be perceived as not start-worthy in twelve and fewer team leagues. If you need your QB to feed you 15 plus points this week, Stafford might not be your man. I figure we will see fewer passing attempts this week. Look for 30 attempts with 18 completions for around 225 yards with one TD and two INTs.
Ridley has been on a hot streak and scored double digit fantasy points in five out of his last six games. New England's offense appears to be in sync and preparing to fire at all cylinders come playoffs. Ridley is one of those players in an offense that could see a huge day or very little production. Of late he has been valuable, but my problem with him this week stems from the match-up. San Francisco is ranked first against running backs and holds the position to a league-leading fewest 12.5 fantasy points per game. If I were going to sit Ridley this would be the week. I think his streak is going to come to an end and he will see a low end week. I am guessing we will see 12-14 rushing attempts with 45-55 yards and maybe a short yardage reception.
Turner has now scored a TD in each of his last four games. This is great news for Turner owners. The unfortunate issue that his owners must consider is the additional playing time of Jacquizz Rodgers. Rodgers is receiving more and more of the workload each week and last week was on the field for just under 50% of snaps. Turner, on the other hand, played about 30% of snaps. This increase in playing time for Rodgers is likely best explained by his ability to factor into the passing game. This week Turner faces a New York defense that is ranked fourth against running backs allowing an average of about 15 points to the position per game. Turner will see his snaps this week, but as his play counts dwindle, so does his fantasy value. If Turner does not get the touchdown and has a slow production week, he could be a playoff killer. Look for 25-35 rushing yards and no score this week as Atlanta is likely to play from behind and need the services of Rodgers to a greater degree.
Amendola was back in action for several weeks before he injured his heel. It appears that he could go this week vs. Minnesota, but we will have to wait and see. With Chris Givens seeing more targets, he has been productive, but the St. Louis passing game has been struggling lately. If Amendola plays, he is a viable flex option in most leagues. I question his health status and worry that if he plays he could be limited and be a huge letdown for fantasy owners. Minnestota is just ahead of mid-pack when it comes to pass defense. I think he will play this week, but we will be uninspired by 3-4 receptions for less than 50 yards.