Strategy session: Six-pack of fantasy insight from Standig, De Lima, Murphy
1) In a PPR draft you're selecting Calvin Johnson…?
Ben Standig: I'm taking at least six running backs over Megatron and maybe seven if my spidey sense for a particular league says Trent Richardson makes more sense. Don't consider that a knock on Johnson, but rather an understanding that the receivers available in rounds 3-5 offer greater value than the runners in that range do.
Brian Murphy: Even in a PPR draft, I would select Johnson no higher than fourth. That's how strongly I feel about Peterson, Martin and Charles.
Matt De Lima: Probably going to miss out on him because I'll let him slide to 11th. Give me AP, Martin, Lynch, Charles, Foster, Spiller, McCoy, Richardson, Rice and Forte over Megatron in PPR. I gotta have my #1 RB.
2) Factoring in ADP, Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard or Montee Ball?
Murphy: Lacy as the highest current ADP of the three, but I'd still take him in the fourth round. He is the only one locked into a starting job, and he is a very solid bet for plenty of touchdowns. Bernard is a preferred PPR option, but we don't know how the touches will be split between him and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I almost want nothing to do with the Broncos' backfield at this point. It seems like that will be a two or three-headed committee all year.
De Lima: I'm passing on all of them this year now that Lacy has crept up into the late third or early fourth. I've seen Lacy go ahead of Andre Johnson and Roddy White in a couple of recent drafts. That's silly to me. Bernard isn't much further behind, maybe mid-fourth round; still too early. Then Ball, I'm just not feeling his situation and the competition for playing time. I could be dead wrong here, but I'm not comfortable with the players during the season either. If I'm not comfortable enough to start a guy, I'm not drafting him.
Standig: It could take Bernard six or so games to supplant BJGE. Who knows what's up in Denver, though Ball remains the Bronco back to own. That leaves Lacy, who is the clear leader of this pack. Yet with his ADP flying into round four and possibly the third in the coming days following the DuJuan Harris news, his value isn't so great. Since I can start Lacy, he wins. With his skill on that that team, by next week I might convince myself there is value even in the late third.
3) Since start of training camp, player who has fallen out of favor on your draft board
De Lima: Arian Foster is probably the first guy that comes to mind, although I think it is a typical knee-jerk reaction by the fantasy hivemind. Foster is going towards the back-end of drafts right now and I think that's a bit much. I'd probably say it's a tie between Isaiah Pead and Chris Ivory. Both guys were slated to push for starting time and now they are both listed as backups.
Standig: In terms of a player I previously touted, Coby Fleener went from my go-to TE sleeper to turning in a do-nothing preseason. It's not all bad for the Colts starter and I'll still get him somewhere, but he's dropped on my list. In terms of a player I previously would have considered in the non-Arian Foster category, I'm passing on Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson thanks to Buffalo's hot mess of a quarterback situation.
Murphy: I really want to believe in Kenny Britt, but I've got to back away. His knees are bothering him again, which is the biggest concern. And I have not been impressed by Jake Locker in the preseason even though his completion percentage is up. I said a couple of months ago that Britt would have a bounce-back year, but him missing a handful of games appears more likely than that.