Rookie Stock Report

With the fantasy playoffs in full swing, the Player Upgrades article is shifting focus to next season. For those in keeper or dynasty leagues (or those who are looking for an edge next season already), these Rookie Stock Reports are just for you. This week's Rookie Stock Report focuses on the top 15 fantasy relevant running backs. Next week's article will focus on the QB's, WR's, and TE's.

Unlike any other position in the game is a rookie better suited to have an impact in their first season than at the running back position, and that theory has been proven correct by the emergence of a number of fantasy stud rookies in the past few years. The class of the 2008 NFL Draft was no exception; a pair of Conference USA running backs top the list of this year's most successful rookie running backs who have quickly become household names and will be first or second round picks in 2009 fantasy drafts in Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Jonathan Stewart.

My exclusive "Sleeper of the Week" for Week 15 was Indianapolis RB Dominic Rhodes who delivered for fantasy owners who started him. Rhodes rushed for 86 yards and 2 TD's against the Detroit Lions. This week 16 Fantasy Championship Sleeper is New Orleans RB Pierre Thomas. With Reggie Bush unlikely to play now that he has sustained a knee injury, Thomas will shoulder a full workload versus the (you guessed it) Detroit Lions. Expect a huge performance from Thomas this weekend.

Fantasy owners should be sure to check out the FFToolbox.com Fantasy Football Show this Tuesday Night @ 7:00. This week's guests will be Rob Warner, joined by your host as always "The Fantasy Mechanic" John Benson. This week's show will help you set your lineup for the Championship and get you the win this weekend. Best of luck in Week 16 and beyond to all fantasy owners.

RB Jamaal Charles, KC

In his first season out of the University of Texas, Jamaal Charles has become one of the most explosive dynamic players on the Kansas City offense, but his role is more in the passing game than anything else. Charles has caught 24 passes for 170 yards and 1 TD, as opposed to just 333 yards and 0 TD's rushing on 61 carries. Jamaal Charles had a reputation for fumbling in college, which unfortunately carried over into his rookie season; Charles has fumbled twice on just 61 carries. There are almost guaranteed to be coaching changes in Kansas City this offseason which will benefit Charles if their new system features the passing game more often. Larry Johnson's presence will limit Charles' fantasy value, so unless you are in a dynasty league Charles should be a late round flier at best in next season's fantasy drafts.

RB Tashard Choice, DAL

The Georgia Tech product burst onto the fantasy scene through the door opened by the injury to Felix Jones, and has become a fantasy contributor in the past two weeks of the fantasy playoffs. Choice was given his first start of the season on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and exceeded expectations rushing for 88 yards on 23 carries while also catching 5 passes for 78 yards. With Marion Barber back in action in Week 15, Choice received fewer carries, but still ran for 91 yards and 1 TD. Choice has been excellent for the Cowboys taking over for both Marion Barber and Felix Jones this season, so he will most likely figure into their backfield rotation for 2009. I would imagine the Cowboys keeping Marion Barber in his role as the featured back with Choice and Jones spelling Barber next season. If Barber retains his role as a the Cowboys' lead back, Tashard Choice will be a middle to late round fantasy pick next season. If Barber were to go down, Choice has shown the ability to fill in and run effectively against some of the top defenses in the NFL.

RB Matt Forte, CHI

Chicago released Cedric Benson during the offseason, opening the door for their talented 2nd round selection (44th overall) out of Tulane Matt Forte to shoulder an entire workload in his rookie season. Forte showed in his first start of the season against Indianapolis that he was going to be a fantasy force rushing with a unique blend of power, speed, and elusiveness that so few running backs in the league posses, rushing for 123 yards and 1 TD versus a Colts defense with Bob Sanders healthy! Forte's versatility as a receiver out of the backfield further enhanced his fantasy value as a rookie as he has caught 58 passes for 424 yards and 4 TD's so far this season. Forte is on pace to eclipse Gale Sayers team record of 1,374 yards from scrimmage set in 1965, as he has also amassed 1,115 yards and 7 TD's on 280 carries. With the emergence of running back by committee, it is a rarity for a team in the league to place an entire workload on a single running back; which makes Matt Forte an even more valuable fantasy running back who will be a 1st round selection in fantasy drafts next season.

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE

BenJarvus Green-Ellis was promoted from the practice squad and actually started three games for the Patriots during the middle of the season as an undrafted rookie free agent out of Ole Miss. Green-Ellis was an excellent fantasy contributor during that stretch, scoring a TD in four straight games! With the return of Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney, LaMont Jordan, and Kevin Faulk all healthy in 2009, it is difficult to see Green-Ellis receiving significant playing time in New England next season. If injuries decimate the Patriots backfield again in 2009, fantasy owners should turn to "The Law Firm", but he shouldn't be selected in fantasy drafts next season unless you just want to say his name in the final round.

RB Tim Hightower, ARI

Hightower flew so far under the radar that he wasn't even invited to the NFL's Scouting Combine following his senior season at Richmond University. Hightower was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the 5th round, and immediately took over the goal-line duties in training camp. By Week 9, Hightower had replaced Edgerrin James as the starting halfback, and ran for 109 yards and 1 TD against the St. Louis Rams in his first career start. Hightower appeared poised to ascend to fantasy greatness, but so far in the 2nd half of the season Hightower has been a disappointment considering the expectations fantasy owners had. The problem hasn't been entirely Hightower's fault, despite averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, Arizona hasn't been committed to running the football. Against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15, Arizona fell behind 28-0 and completely abandoned the run, handing the ball off just 6 times in the entire game. Hightower will be a middle round selection next season in fantasy drafts because while he won't put up big numbers yardage wise (unless the Cardinals make an effort to commit to the running game), Hightower will still score plenty of touchdowns as Arizona's goal-line back (10 TD's this season), and is still a great receiver out of the backfield (32 receptions this season). Tim Hightower has tremendous upside, but Arizona needs to upgrade its offensive line in the offseason for Hightower to become an elite stud fantasy running back.

RB Peyton Hillis, DEN

My source in Denver believes that Peyton Hillis will be the starting running back for the Denver Bronco's next season, and so should fantasy owners. Hillis (a fullback in college at Arkansas) was thrust into the starting role when injuries knocked out Michael Pittman, Andre Hall, Ryan Torain, and Selvin Young this season. Hillis was a god-send for fantasy owners who picked him up, scoring 5 touchdowns in 4 straight games. Hillis was injured making a spectacular reception against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 that forced him to go on injured reserve with a torn hamstring. Hillis ran with power, and was extremely difficult to bring down because of his size -- even saluted the crowd after scoring touchdowns like NFL icon Terrell Davis did years ago. So, what's not to like? Mike Shanahan has a reputation for not sticking with a single running back, but Peyton Hillis may be the exception to Shanahan's rule. Hillis will be a draft day sleeper next season that fantasy owners should keep an eye on.