Week 15: Dynasty Watch

As most fantasy leagues enter their semifinal week, over 50% of the teams in fantasy football have packed it in and are either continuing their fantasy addiction by scouting minor league pitchers and catchers to prep for fantasy baseball drafts or trying to decide on which new year's resolution they will try to stick to until February. As all successful fantasy football owners know (especially dynasty leaguers), even after the final tick on the clock at the pro bowl -- there is no offseason in fantasy football. Many will begin analyzing mock drafts to see who will be this year's Knowshon Moreno / LeSean McCoy and the savvy owner will develop a list of players to target that may emerge in 2010 because they are in prime position to overthrow an aging veteran on the decline. Some players might currently be backups, but are directly behind a player who may retire after 2009.

In this article we will focus on players whose value for 2010 is on the upswing. This column should be helpful to readers in keeper and dynasty leagues as well as those looking to construct the ultimate 2010 sleeper list.

RB Justin Forsett, SEA

Julius Jones has missed two games with a bruised lung and has only topped 100 yard once this season (in week 1 against St Louis). Forsett has topped 100 yards twice in the past month and despite Jones' return to the lineup, the 24 year old Forsett is the more explosive back and should be the back of the future for Seattle and coach Jim Mora Jr. He is an above average pass catching back, which raises his value in yardage leagues.

RB Shonn Greene, NYJ

Greene has three fumbles on just 71 rushing attempts in his rookie season, but he still remains the mostly likely candidate to be the Jets' starting running back in 2010 if Thomas Jones is cut (Jones has a $3 million roster bonus due in March 2010). However, Greene's ball security woes could threaten his role going forward (especially if the Jets resign impending free agent Leon Washington -- provided he returns to form following season ending surgery on his fractured fibula). For now it seems that if Greene curbs his fumbling problems, he'll stay out of coach Rex Ryan's doghouse, and could see his role increase dramatically in 2010. His week 7 performance against the Raiders (144 yards on 19 carries) could be a sign of things to come.

RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN

It was noted at the 2009 draft that Broncos coach Josh McDaniels envisioned first-round pick (#12 overall) Knowshon Moreno as a three-down back. He has been embroiled in a time share with Correll Buckhalter for most of 2009, but C-bucks' week 14 ankle injury could be the window of opportunity that Knowshon needs to prove that he can shoulder a full workload in 2010. He is already the primary red-zone back and had four straight games (weeks 10-13) over 80 yards. The rookie out of Georgia is now on pace to break the 1,000-yard mark this season and should be a top 15-20 fantasy running back in 2010.

RB Pierre Thomas, NO

The dreaded RBBC has clouded the values of all Saints running backs in 2009, despite the fact that they play in this year's version of the greatest show on turf. Drew Brees is a defensive coordinator's worst nightmare and limiting the Saints' passing game figures to be the priority of most defensive game plans for the foreseeable future. If New Orleans unloads Reggie Bush's $13.5 million cap charge by next season, they will open up more carries for Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell next season. A consensus preseason 2009 sleeper, the 24-year old Thomas has yet to emerge as the top 15 RB that many had predicted since Sean Payton has employed a time share. In 2008, Pierre led the NFL in first downs per carry and his hard-nosed running style and above average pass catching ability could result in more of a feature role in 2010, making him a prime target for dynasty league owners (as I'm not sure his value will ever be much lower -- provided that the 2010 free agents resign with the Saints). Monitor his offseason contract status as the Saints offense will likely be just as high powered for the next three years since Drew Brees is locked up through 2012.

RB Chris Wells, ARI

Tim Hightower is not an every down back. In a week 14 loss to the 49ers he lost his 4th fumble of the season, entrenching him in coach Whisenhunt's dog house. Beanie Wells is grabbing the starting running back role by the horns as he rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in Week 14. The talent differential between the two backs is simply too large for Wells (31st overall pick in the 2009 draft) not to remain the starter in 2010. Hightower is better suited as a 3rd down pass catching specialist. With an emerging role in 2010, the 6'1/240-pounder with 4.5 speed could be a top 20 fantasy running back next season.