2010 Team Outlook: Detroit

Despite moving up to draft a running back in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, it appears the Lions are moving away from the running game to concentrate on the passing attack. And that is not a bad idea for a team that is often behind and has to pass anyway (and has a player like Calvin Johnson). Jahvid Best, who may end up starting week one as a rookie due to an injury to Kevin Smith, is not the type of player who is going to carry the ball 20 times per game. That makes Matthew Stafford a viable fantasy quarterback and increases Johnson's value as a receiver even more. And, as has often been the case in recent years, the Lions' only fantasy value comes in the passing game.

The Lions bolstered their defensive front by drafting Ndamukong Suh and adding Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. However, Detroit has been here before; do not expect great things from the defense. Those three will have a lot of pressure on them to stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback in order to protect an inconsistent secondary. Until the Lions' defense proves that it is halfway decent (which may take a decade or so), there is no fantasy value to be found.

QB Matthew Stafford, DET (QB - #18) - Quality Backup

The Lions appear to be putting everything on the progress of Matthew Stafford. Running back Kevin Smith is hurt and may miss time, and rookie back Jahvid Best is not going to carry the load (and is not known for his great health anyway). That means the Lions are going to pass a lot. If Stafford stays healthy, he will be a pretty good fantasy player. Stafford certainly did not put up great numbers in his ten appearances last season, but with a year of experience under his belt he has plenty of potential. The Lions think they see it and are giving him new targets to help him out, like pass catching tight end Tony Scheffler and possession receiver Nate Burleson. Stafford should be a solid backup quarterback in most leagues.

RB Kevin Smith, DET (RB - #51) - Bust (overvalued)

Kevin Smith is still recovering from a torn ACL. While he seems confident in his ability to return by the beginning of the season, it certainly is not a guarantee. And even if Smith stays healthy, the Lions do not plan to run very often. In 13 games last season, Smith was Detroit's feature back and only rushed for 57.5 yards per game and reached the end zone four times. While Smith is a capable pass catcher out of the backfield, one expects more fantasy production out of a starting running back than what Smith will provide. The addition of first round draft pick Jahvid Best will limit Smith even more.

RB Jahvid Best, DET (RB - #24) - Bye Week Fill-in

Jahvid Best is a good running back and may be worth a selection in keeper leagues, but other than that he has little fantasy value this season. Best is not a workhorse and will probably not get more than 15 touches in a game even if projected starter Kevin Smith misses a few games while recovering from a torn ACL. Best may be the back of the future, but Smith believes he will be back in time for the season opener. In the meantime, Best could win the starting job and hold onto it, so he is at least worth watching during the preseason to see if he looks like a player who could turn into a starter (and be worthy of a late round fantasy selection).

RB Maurice Morris, DET (RB - #69) - Low Potential

Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best are both injury prone, so Maurice Morris could turn into a viable fantasy player at some point during the 2010 campaign. However, one has to believe that if Smith and Best are out, the Lions will give up on the ground game even more than usual. This is a group of running backs that are not going to carry the ball that often as it is and relying on Morris to be anything but a change of pace back for Smith and Best is unrealistic. That leaves Morris' fantasy value at about nothing to start the season, but a couple of injuries could change that in a hurry.

WR Calvin Johnson, DET (WR - #4) - Stud (low risk)

Calvin Johnson's touchdown receptions went from 12 in 2008 to five in 2009. In 2010 expect that number to be somewhere in between. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is settling in as an NFL quarterback and he should be better if he can stay healthy. And Johnson is the obvious target that Stafford will be looking to more often than not. Detroit finally found a receiver who has been consistent and Johnson is not going anywhere in that regard. As long as Detroit has a quarterback who can get him the ball, Johnson will be a great fantasy player and one of the best receivers in the NFL.

WR Nate Burleson, DET (WR - #48) - Sleeper (undervalued)

The Lions acquired Nate Burleson to be the possession receiver they lacked last season. Detroit appears to be moving even further into the passing game and that could be big for Burleson. While the opposition is concentrating on stopping Calvin Johnson, Burleson could put up some big numbers. It was only four years ago when Mike Furrey -- another possession receiver -- caught 98 passes for 1,086 yards for the Lions while Roy Williams was making all the big plays. Johnson is better than Williams, and Burleson has the potential to put up numbers like Furrey. However, the difference will be the consistency of quarterback Matthew Stafford and all the additions of pass catching tight ends that the Lions lacked in 2006.