2010 Team Outlook: Minnesota

If anyone watched the NFL schedule release show , it was apparent that the analysts at NFL Network were all but convinced that Brett Favre is coming back (as they highlighted the Packer-Vikings games) -- not sure a Tavaris Jackson - Aaron Rodgers clash will have the same luster. After Jared Allen, Steve Hutchinson and Ryan Longwell ventured down to beg #4 to come back be obliged and the spokesmodel for Wranglers will be under center for the Vikings during the opening Thursday night NFC championship rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship classic. We've already seen that Tarvaris can lead the Vikings to the playoffs, but his performance against Philadelphia in round 1 of 2008 is a sign that he is not going to be holding up the Lombardi trophy in this lifetime.

Now that the 2010 Favre soap opera has ended (for now), the Vikings' playoff and super bowl aspirations will depend on whether that surgical repaired ankle can withstand the rigors of an NFL season. Green Bay is much improved and as Aaron Rodgers enters his third season as the starter, he has the weapons in place to to give the Vikings a run for their money. Chicago upgraded their running game with the offseason signing of Chester Taylor; and Detroit will likely spend another season at the bottom of the NFC North, but they are showing promise with an impressive draft and decent offseason (signed TE Scheffler and WR Burleson).

The Vikings need to improve a running game that struggled in 2009 as AP only reached 100 yards in three games and the offensive line was much to blame. LT Bryant McKinnie made the Pro Bowl undeservedly (many top tackles were injured) and showed his lack of maturity by skipping the game. RG Anthony Herrera and first year center John Sullivan are best used as backups, but will be forced into starting again as Minnesota didn't upgrade in the 2010 draft and lost super-sub Artis Hicks to Washington.

The receiving corps emerged in 2009 with the help of Favre's accuracy and decision-making. WR Sidney Rice had a breakout season (first Pro Bowl) and rookie Percy Harvin was a defensive coordinator's nightmare as he is a home run hitter from anywhere on the field (including special teams). TE Visanthe Shiancoe also benefited from the stability at QB and he developed a great chemistry with Favre (especially in the red zone).

UPDATE: On August 24th, WR Sidney Rice underwent hip surgery and will likely miss the first 8 weeks of the regular season. This is a drastic blow to the Vikings passing game and downgrades the fantasy value of QB Brett Favre (I'm not sure he can be considered a top 10 fantasy QB without his go to receiver). This news gives a boost to WR Bernard Berrian and TE VIsanthe Shiancoe who could see an increase in red zone looks now that the 6'4 Rice will be on the sidelines.

The Vikings' Defense finished 2009 ranked 2nd against the run (89 yds. /game), but the secondary struggled finishing 19th as top corner Antoine Winfield battled injuries. In 2009, they totaled 47 sacks, 11 interceptions, 23 forced fumbles (13 recovered) and three touchdowns (one defensive, and two kick returns). As long as the Williams wall avoids suspension and unrestricted DE Ray Edwards is resigned, the Vikings should be a top-10 fantasy unit as they boast one of the more fearsome front fours in the league led by Jared Allen's mullet militia.

The Vikings boast a future HOF quarterback, top flight running game, emerging receiving corps, and one of the league's best defenses, which should give them a legit chance at making their first Super Bowl appearance since 1976 (anything less will make the entire Favre situation a failure). As a life long Vikings fan, I never thought I'd see the day that I was prayed for another Favre season, but without him a 9-7 Viking season and Packer NFC North title was all but a certainty. With #4 under center, the Purple should have a legit chance of excercising the demons that still linger from the 2010 NFC title game debacle in New Orleans.

QB Brett Favre, MIN (QB - #12) - Solid/Safe Pick

It's amazing what a little stability at QB can do for a team. Favre stepped right in at the ripe old age of 40 and had one of his best seasons of his career and nearly carried the Vikings to the Super Bowl (if not for one ill advised interception in the NFC Title game loss to New Orleans). Favre managed to break Joe Montana's all-time career playoff passing yards record, but I'm sure he'd trade that in if he could have his last pass back. He finished the 2009 season with 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions. He eclipsed a 100 quarterback rating for the first time and set a career-high in yards per attempt. Despite playing behind an average at best offensive line, he was able help the Vikings become one of the more feared offenses in the NFL as they averaged 29pts/game and finished ranked 8th in passing (260 yards/game). He should produce stats worthy of being drafted as a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues. He has numerous receiving weapons at his disposal and one of the better running games in all of the NFL led by Adrian Peterson. One caveat is Favre required offseason ankle surgery and will be behind an offensive line that was not upgraded via the draft (and is coming off a disappointing 2009 season where they allowed 34 sacks -- a number that would be higher if not for Favre's quick release). Vikings fans and dynasty league owners of any Vikings players are thrilled that Favre returns under center as his presence greatly enhances the Vikings Super Bowl chances as well as the fantasy production of every player on the Vikings offense.

UPDATE: Unless you have been living in a cave, you are aware that #4 has returned to the Vikings. Monitor his progress during the final preseason games to ensure that the ankle is not limiting his production. You can't expect the magic of 2009 (33 TDs and 7 INTs) but he should remain a lower end QB1 despite being a 40 year old grandfather.

UPDATE: (8/24) With the loss of leading WR Sidney Rice for half the season, #4 probably drops out of the top 10 fantasy QBs and possibly behind Joe Flacco and Kevin Kolb.

QB Tarvaris Jackson, MIN (QB - #54) - Sleeper (undervalued)

Vikings coach Brad Childress has indicated that Tarvaris Jackson would enter training camp as the starter if Brett Favre retires -- let's just hope it doesn't come to that. The 27 year old quarterback from Alabama State has yet to show the decision making needed to succeed at the NFL level, but does possess a strong arm and above average speed when flushed out of the pocket. His career numbers are serviceable (59% completion rate and 21 touchdowns with18 interceptions), but his pocket presence and inability to lead the offense with any consistency are the reasons why the Vikings tendered him the lowest possible restricted free agent offer. Despite a handful of teams entering 2010 with holes at the QB position, T-Jax was not on any NFL radars so he decided to accept a one year, $1.176 million contract to stay in Minnesota. Despite accuracy concerns, he is an athletic QB with above average arm strength and has emerging receiving options to make for a decent BYE week if the unthinkable happens and he has the starting job in week 1.

UPDATE: With Favre back, T-Jax becomes fantasy irrelevant except in the deepest of leagues as a Favre handcuff.

QB Sage Rosenfels, NYG (QB - #53) - Low Potential

The seven year NFL veteran entered training camp in a battle for the 3rd string QB job with 2010 sixth round pick Joe Webb. There were rumors that the Vikings would be showcasing the unhappy Rosenfels for a trade during preseason. However, amid the Favre retirement rumors, he may be given a chance to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job. His aggressiveness and poor decision making have plagued his career making him best suited as a backup / injury replacement. In three seasons in Houston, Rosenfels appeared in 19 games and posted a below average TD:INT ratio of 24:23. Despite pedestrian stats during his career, the 32 year old veteran could be a consideration for teams such as the Bills, Texans, Bengals, Saints, and Bears that might be looking for quarterback depth. With favre back, Rosenfels could be moved for a draft pick if any teams lose their QB in training camp / first month of the regular season

RB Adrian Peterson, MIN (RB - #2) - Stud (low risk)

Despite fumbling concerns (6 fumbles in the regular season) that were magnified in a disappointing NFC title game loss, AP finished the 2009 season as the #2 rated fantasy back behind only Chris Johnson and his 2000 yard season. Peterson led the league in rushing touchdowns with 18 and he figures to be a bigger part of the passing game in 2010 now that RB Chester Taylor signed with Chicago. The Vikings replaced Taylor by drafting Toby Gerhart in round 2 and he could steal some goal line carries, but will not come anywhere near the 44 receptions that Taylor hauled in last season. In 2009, AP set a career-high with 43 catches (only 40 catches total in first two seasons) and racked up 1,819 total yards despite offensive line struggles. In three seasons, Peterson has never failed to top 1,300 yards and has averaged 13 TDs per season. Some might suggest that Ray Rice should be #2 on draft boards, but let's not forget that he's only done it for one season. I would argue that AP is the safer #2 fantasy running back behind only Chris Johnson as he's likely to see a spike in receptions and could approach 20 touchdowns.

RB Toby Gerhart, MIN (RB - #48) - Fantasy Handcuff

After four seasons in Minnesota, Chester Taylor signed an offseason contract with Chicago and will be competing with Matt Forte for the starting job. The void at backup running back was filled by the Vikings when they traded up to #51 and selected Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart out of Stanford. In Gerhart's 38 career games at Stanford from 2006-09, he totaled a school-record 1,871 rushing yards and led the nation with 28 touchdowns in 2009. He finished second nationally in rushing average (144 yds. / game) and topped 100 yards in 11 of 13 games. Gerhart doesn't have great athleticism, but did run a sub 4.5 forty at the combine and has the skill set to be a decent inside runner and end-zone threat in the NFL. He'll be a wise addition for all Peterson owners in the later rounds of fantasy drafts, but his upside is limited since he'll only be fantasy relevant if Peterson is injured (only missed 3 games in his three year career).

WR Bernard Berrian, MIN (WR - #45) - Quality Backup

After two straight seasons over 900 yards, Berrian saw decreased production in his second season in Minnesota as he become the Vikings' 4th receiving option behind Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and TE Shiancoe. Berrian didn't top 75 in any regular season game in 2009 and he finished with only 568 yards and four touchdowns. Berrian's per-catch average slipped from 20 yds./catch to 11 yds/catch as he battled hamstring problems through much of the season. The 29-year-old is best selected as a WR4 as there just aren't enough passes to go around (especially on a team that features a dominant running game).

UPDATE: Bernard Berrian has reported that the hamstring injury that plagued him throughout 2009 is now 100% healthy. Hamstring injuries can reappear at any time so we are cautiously optimistic. Berrian did seem recovered during the NFC title game loss to New Orleans when he hauled in 9 catches for 102 yards. He is one season removed from being the 18th best fantasy receiver (2008) and with Harvin and Rice both ailing, BB could make for a nice value play as he'll likely fly under the radar on draft day.

UPDATE 8/24: With news that Sidney Rice will miss at least 8 weeks, Berrian becomes a startig receiver in Minnesota and is well worth a late round selection as he is in position to become a WR3.