Fantasy Fact or Fiction: Draft Your Defense Last

Your fantasy draft is similar to a game of Poker, there are tells and tomfoolery worthy of paying attention to that help identify who's a seasoned vet or who's a greenhorn. Body language, the use of red herrings, deliberate instigation and comments are a few tricks used by serious competitors. Sabotaging someone else's draft can be an effective strategy in assembling the best players for your squad. I will save my guerilla draft strategies for another article, but there is one draft move that screams "Hey…over here…take advantage of me!!" and that's when a manager picks a Defense any round earlier than their last pick.

If you play in a league that drafts Individual Defensive Players (IDP), this commentary won't be relevant; but if you're in a league structured around starting 1 or 2 defensive teams each week then pay close attention. This data is out there and is no secret, but for some unexplainable reason each year a few managers jump the gun early and draft a Defense in the 7^th or 8^th round (essentially wasting a valuable pick that could be used on a backup or a sleeper). When the magazines and rankings start overflowing in a few months please, please take defensive rankings with a grain of salt and make it one of your last draft choices. By the end of this article you will understand that the only consistent thing about defensive rankings is their inconsistency.

It's clear that each league may use a different scoring format when it comes to Defenses, but for the purpose of this article I used the standard format to keep it very generic and easy to interpret. (Sack: 1 point, Interception: 2 points, Fumble Recovery: 2 points, TD: 6 points) I'm also making reference to each team's actual VBD (Value Based Drafting); if you're not familiar, let me quickly explain. VBD is typically used as a drafting technique to compare the difference in projected points between players and positions and their true fantasy value. In this scenario I'm calculating the actual VBD to show the difference between the top defense and the worst defense that would be started in a 12 man league.

Let's begin with 2011…

			2011 Actual Fantasy Production
ESPN 2011 Ranking					Sk	Int	FR	TD	Fantasy Pts.	Actual VBD	VBD P/G
1	Pittsburgh Steelers		1	Detroit Lions	41	21	13	7	151	41	3
2	Green Bay Packers		2	Chicago Bears	33	20	11	7	137	27	2
3	New York Jets		3	Green Bay Packers	29	31	7	5	135	25	2
4	Baltimore Ravens		4	Buffalo Bills	29	20	11	6	127	17	1
5	Philadelphia Eagles		5	New England Patriots	40	23	11	3	126	16	1
6	Chicago Bears		6	San Francisco 49ers	42	23	15	1	124	14	1
7	Atlanta Falcons		7	Baltimore Ravens	48	15	11	4	124	14	1
8	New Orleans Saints		8	Philadelphia Eagles	50	15	9	4	122	12	1
9	New England Patriots		9	Seattle Seahawks	33	22	9	4	119	9	1
10	San Diego Chargers		10	New York Giants	48	20	11	1	116	6	0
11	Kansas City Chiefs		11	New York Jets	35	19	12	3	115	5	0
12	Detroit Lions		12	Houston Texans	44	17	10	2	110	0	0

Predicating the production of a defensive unit is difficult because you're evaluating an entire group of players and the many variables that change that dynamic. Last year is a perfect example, ESPN ranked Pittsburgh as the #1 defense to draft yet they finished the season dead last in fantasy points (71). Detroit finished in 1^st place with 151 points and was not even ranked in the Top 10. I pity the guy who drafted the Steelers early and I praise the guy who drafted Detroit at the end. Defensive rankings are inconsistent and subjective which is why I would never taint my draft by choosing one earlier than my 15^th or 16^th pick but besides that the real secret is that defensive teams are not that valuable to your fantasy team!!!

Let's assume that every one of 2011's Top 12 Defenses was owned by a team in your league. The team with Detroit earned a substantial 151 points and the team with Houston had 110 points. (By the way ESPN ranked the Texans at 24 going into the 2011 season.) Anyway, the difference between Detroit and Houston was 41 points (Actual VBD) which means that through 16 weeks of football 41 points separated the best defense from the worst defense that would be started in a 12 man league. This breaks down to only 3 points per game. Compare the 49ers to the Texans and the VBD between them is 14 points (1 point per game). By looking at the chart you can see that the true difference between Defenses is laughable and that 5 of those teams were ranked outside the Top 12 before the season began and 2 were probably not even drafted (Bills and Seahawks).

Here's a snapshot of 2010…

			2010 Actual Fantasy Production
ESPN 2010 Ranking					Sk	Int	FR	TD	Fantasy Pts.	Actual VBD	VBD P/G
1	New York Jets		1	Arizona Cardinals	33	17	13	10	153	42	3
2	Philadelphia Eagles		2	New England Patriots	36	25	13	5	142	31	2
3	Green Bay Packers		3	Pittsburgh Steelers	48	21	14	3	136	25	2
4	Baltimore Ravens		4	Green Bay Packers	47	24	8	4	135	24	2
5	Dallas Cowboys		5	New York Giants	46	16	23	0	124	13	1
6	San Francisco 49ers		6	Detroit Lions	44	14	15	3	120	9	1
7	Minnesota Vikings		7	Dallas Cowboys	35	20	10	4	119	8	1
8	Pittsburgh Steelers		8	Philadelphia Eagles	39	23	11	2	119	8	1
9	Cincinnati Bengals		9	New York Jets	40	12	18	3	118	7	0
10	New Orleans Saints		10	Oakland Raiders	47	12	12	3	113	2	0
11	Denver Broncos		11	Atlanta Falcons	31	22	9	3	111	0	0
12	New York Giants		12	San Diego Chargers	47	16	7	3	111	0	0

Different numbers but same results. Pre-season rankings had Arizona at the 23^rd spot yet they finished as the top fantasy football defense in 2010. While the Jets were highly touted by almost every expert as the best Defense they finished the season 35 points behind the Cardinals, a team not even drafted outside of Phoenix. Any manager that reached early for the Jets or Ravens (17^th in fantasy points) were very disappointed with the ROI they received in exchange for those early round draft picks.

Finally 2009…

			2009 Actual Fantasy Production
ESPN 2009 Ranking					Sk	Int	FR	TD	Fantasy Pts.	Actual VBD	VBD P/G
1	Pittsburgh Steelers		1	New Orleans Saints	35	26	13	8	161	55	3
2	New York Giants		2	Philadelphia Eagles	44	25	13	4	144	38	2
3	Tennessee Titans		3	Green Bay Packers	37	30	10	4	141	35	2
4	Baltimore Ravens		4	San Francisco 49ers	44	18	15	3	128	22	1
5	Minnesota Vikings		5	Baltimore Ravens	32	22	10	3	114	8	1
6	Philadelphia Eagles		6	Carolina Panthers	31	22	15	1	111	5	0
7	New York Jets		7	Denver Broncos	39	17	13	2	111	5	0
8	Miami Dolphins		8	Buffalo Bills	32	28	5	2	110	4	0
9	Carolina Panthers		9	Tennessee Titans	32	20	7	4	110	4	0
10	Chicago Bears		10	Pittsburgh Steelers	47	12	10	3	109	3	0
11	Green Bay Packers		11	Arizona Cardinals	43	21	8	1	107	1	0
12	New England Patriots		12	New York Jets	32	17	14	2	106	0	0

The Saints were ranked as the 27^th best defense or the 6^th worst defense going into 2009 but surprised everyone by earning the top spot. The Cardinals, Titans, Bills, Broncos, 49ers and Saints were picked appropriately toward the end of the draft or in some cases picked up as free agents but all finished in the Top 12. Some managers looked at Pittsburgh as the best defense that year and went for it early but in the end 9 other defenses finished ahead of them and at most was only a difference of about 3 points per game. This is just another blaring example of the randomness surrounding Defenses every year.

All of this can be related to how opportunity costs are defined in Economics. Opportunity costs are the basic relationship between scarcity and choice and are defined as the cost of the next best alternative forgone. Simply put, what am I losing by making one decision over another? In terms of fantasy football, each player drafted has a projected value based on what he adds to your team so when making a draft choice you need to evaluate what you're giving up with each decision. The whole concept of tiering is proof there isn't much parity among players and the importance of identifying which ones give you the best opportunity to win. With that said, the data above proves there is no significant difference between defensive teams in terms of fantasy points. There is better value in using the 8^th or 9^th round pick on a sleeper or backup player then drafting a defense that might only produce about 3 more points every week than the guy you're playing.

I encourage you to explore this further and look back at previous drafts. See when the highly ranked defenses were drafted and then the players that were drafted after them. I guarantee there were managers last year that drafted the Steeler and Ravens before Demarco Murray, Gronkowski and Can Newton were off the board. That decision could be the difference between winning a Championship and writing a check.

RDM