Why You Should Draft Players For Yards, Not Touchdowns

The numbers players put up each year vary, that much is obvious. Some numbers change a little more than others. Let's look at last year's top ten players in receiving yards. Their numbers of receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns are:

Strong numbers right? The only stats that stood out to me were Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith, whose numbers together combined to average 200.6 yards per touchdown. To put that into perspective the three top touchdown-makers' -- Calvin Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, and Jordy Nelson -- combined average was 88.9 yards per touchdown. Obviously the lack-of touchdowns is a result of poor offense, and vice-versa for great offense scoring often. Those top three touchdown-makers all either had a quarterback that threw for 5000 yards or was the league MVP. What will happen to those like Smith and Marshall who struggled to score last year? Well, Smith has a young gun in Cam Newton that should be able to surpass his rookie passing numbers with a year of experience under his belt. The Carolina Panthers offense should be a pass-first one; and as the team's leading receiver, Smith should score 10-11 touchdowns (so long as he stays healthy). Marshall was stuck with the Miami Dolphins, who scored 20.6 points per game in 2011, good for 20^th best in the league. He is now with a Bears team that averaged 22.1 ppg in 2011, 17^th best, and they were without their top running back or quarterback for the last three and five weeks of the season. Marshall should also score around 10 touchdowns in a Bears offense that runs through its running back. I believe that if he can cut down the number of passes he drops, Marshall could lead the league in receiving yards.

Let's look at those same ten player's stats, but this time from the year before.

Firstly, Cruz didn't start any games that year and only played in three. Secondly, I'm amazed at how Nelson went from two touchdowns on 45 catches (4.4%) to 15 touchdowns on 68 catches (22%) just one year later. Obviously, there is a lot of fluctuation with these two charts of numbers, but we learn that there is a lot of yearly change in touchdown numbers. There is less change with yards, and we can rely more on the players like Roddy White, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald who have consecutive 1000 yard seasons under their belt. Others, like Gronkowski and Johnson, are consistent enough with scoring touchdowns to merit bonus trust on top of their yardage consistency.

This information makes me more likely to draft players like Antonio Brown, who had 1100 yards but only two touchdowns in 2011. Remember, it doesn't take a pro bowl quarterback to cause a receiver to lead the league in touchdowns (Dwayne Bowe, 2010) but talent will always win-out when it comes to yardage, and the touchdowns will eventually follow.