2012 Team Outlook: Jacksonville
QB Blaine Gabbert, --- - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
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Gabbert was not very good at all during his rookie season; we are willing to blame some of that on the lack of playmakers at the receiver position. The Jaguars added two pieces that should help Gabbert -- rookie Justin Blackmon and free agent Laurent Robinson. While I think Gabbert should improve with those new weapons, I'm not sold on him and believe there are plenty of better options at QB. At best take him as a backup. He is worth drafting in dynasty leagues.
Update - 8-11-2012 - Gabbert's progression from last season hasn't been good enough to warrant being a draft pick in most leagues, maybe in a deep dynasty league. The Jags' offense will go nowhere without a happy and healthy MJD and right now there is no guarantee of that.
QB Chad Henne, --- - Low Potential
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Henne was brought in as a veteran back up for Blaine Gabbert, with a chance to compete for the starting job. We have to assume the Jags will give Gabbert every chance to keep his job, so for now Henne is even more useless in the fantasy world than Gabbert.
Update 8-11-2012- Being the back-up QB on what might be the worst offense in the NFL isn't a great spot to be. Even as the starter, Henne isnt worth considering.
RB DuJuan Harris, --- - Low Potential
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Similar thoughts to what was mentioned about Rashard Jennings: At best the change of pace option can be a handcuff to one of the best running backs in the league. He won't see much (if any) time as long as MJD is healthy and even if not, would he really get carries and would you really want to start him? I don't think so. Monitor Harris' depth chart slot should Jones-Drew's holdout become a regular season issue.
RB Rashad Jennings, --- - Fantasy Handcuff
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Jennings missed all of 2011, but says he is fully healthy and ready to take back the backup duties for MJD. The Jags don't rely enough on their backups to rate Jennings as anything more than a handcuff (and maybe not even a good one). If MJD went down, you would really need to think about whether you would be willing to ever start Jennings. However, if a certain contract dispute keeps a certain star RB out of Jags camp, Jennings value (at least short term) moves up at least into the bye week filler range.
Update 8-11-2012 - Jennings should be moving up your draft board big time. If MJD's holdout lasts into the season then he will be the starter; even if MJD comes back right before the season, don't be surprised if he goes down with an injury leaving starter's duties in Jennings' hands.
RB Greg Jones, --- - Low Potential
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Jones has become a full time blocker and is due $3.1 million this year, so there is a chance he doesn't make the roster. Even if he does, he isn't worth drafting.
Update 8-11-2012 - Jones is not worth owning. He might see a slight spike in goal line carries if MJD is out, otherwise he is not worth even looking at.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, --- - Stud (low risk)
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STUD STUD STUD, that's all MJD is - not that it matters much if his contract issue lingers and lingers.Last season (despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the NFL), MJD was able to set career highs in rushing yards (1,606) while scoring 11 total TDs and catching 43 passes for 374 yards -- making him even more dangerous in PPR leagues. MJD is a top 12 fantasy player in any format, it's as simple as that, if he shows up, that is. Otherwise...well, let's see where we are by mid August or so...
Update 8-11-2012 - MJD is currently holding out and there has been no update about when this might end. If this hold out drags on much longer, MJD should drop down your draft board. Players who sit out most of camp in contract holdouts don't have great seasons, often getting injured. This is something to pay close attention to.
RB Keith Toston, ---
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Update 8-11-2012 - Toston was signed as depth when MJD started his holdout. Despite looking good in the first pre-season game playing with the 2nd and 3rd unit, he isn't worth drafting at this point.
WR Justin Blackmon, --- - Quality Backup
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The Jags got what they hope to be the final piece to the offensive puzzle. They drafted what they hope to be their QB of the future last year to play with MJD, all they were missing was a go to receiver. Enter Blackmon, a big play beast in college. As long as Blaine Gabbert can get him the ball, Blackmon will make plays. He was arrested in June for a DUI and will now be watched even closer as he gets his first arrest before playing his first game. If Blackmon can stay out of trouble and get focused on football, there is no reason to believe he wont be the best receiver on this team.
Update 8-11-2012 - Blackmon was the last first round pick to sign a contract missing at the start of camp. Also, he is dealing with some off field issues. If he can stay focused he will have no problem being the #1 reciever, unfortunately it will be with a below average QB and on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Draft high in dysnaty, medium to low in non dynasty.
WR Lee Evans, --- - Over the Hill (decreased production)
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Lee Evans didn't do much last season in his only year with the Baltimore Ravens. He looks to be on the down turn of his NFL career. Hard seeing the Jags offense being very explosive and even should it emerge, it will most likely be due to the other new receivers -- rookie Justin Blackmon and free agent signee Laurent Robinson. Leave Evans for someone else to draft, then mock them for doing so.
Update 8-11-2012- Evans' best years are behind him. Don't expect much of anything from this veteran.
Update 8-12-2012 - Evans was released
WR Laurent Robinson, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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After years of promise that always ended in disappointment, Robinson finally flashed the game many have talked about for so long. In only 14 games with Dallas last year, he set career highs in all categories: receptions (59), yards (858) and touchdowns (11). Then Robinson took those numbers and parlayed them into a big contract with Jacksonville where he becomes a main focus rather than a WR3 target. While Robinson was a pleasant surprise to all fantasy owners last year, don't expect him to duplicate those numbers. He has been very injury prone and Blaine Gabbert is no Tony Romo. Draft with caution.
Update 8-11-2012- Robinson has already missed some time in camp with injuries, expect that to be a common theme with him. While he might start the season as the #1 receiver, don't expect him to end it that way. The newly acquired receiver has a lot of talent, but has rarely stayed healthy. Let someone else draft him.
WR Cecil Shorts, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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The Jaguars fourth-round pick in 2011, Shorts will be among those competing for the WR 4/5 spot. In this offense, that means he's not worth drafting.
Update- 8-11-2012- Despite looking better than Mike Thomas in training camp, I dont expect that to last and wouldnt consider Shorts as someone to draft.
WR Mike Thomas, --- - Deep-league Only
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Mike Thomas signed a big contract extension last October and proceeded to have the worst year of his career. Inconsistent play from rookie QB Blaine Gabbert didn't help matters, but Thomas' poor attitude and issues with his now former WR coach also factored. The Jags did bring in two new wide outs to take over as the top two options. Having a more potent offense and other weapons on the field might actually help Thomas. Regardless he is nothing more than a late round flyer at best.
Update 8-11-2012- Thomas has struggled in camp and is fighting for position on the depth chart. As long as Robinson and Blackmon can stay healthy, Thomas can play in the slot where he does his best work and could be an interesting consideration deep in PPR leagues, follow how all this falls.
TE Marcedes Lewis, DEN - Bye Week Fill-in
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After setting career highs across the board in 2010, Lewis took a huge dive and went back to being the player not worthy of being on a fantasy roster. While he can only improve on last season, don't expect it to be enough to be worthy of fantasy consideration.
Update 8-11-2012 - Lewis hasn't looked good in camp, looks out of shape. Stay away from drafting.
PK Josh Scobee, --- - Low Potential
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Solid actual kicker, but the Jags don't score enough points to warrant Scobee being drafted. There are plenty of better kickers out there. Not worth drafting. Let's move on.
Jacksonville - Bye Week Fill-in
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If your league gives out points based on yards and points given then the Jags are an ok team to have. If your league bases its defensive points on turnovers and sacks, the Jags shouldn't be your team. All in all, there is probably a better team defense to draft.