2012 Team Outlook: Miami
QB David Garrard, NYJ - Gamble (high risk)
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Early indications point to Garrard winning the starting position in Miami this season. This of course could all be a hoax with Moore or even Tannehill winning the starting job. Should Garrard win the job, there's no guarantee he'll keep it. If the Dolphins start the season off with a couple of bad losses, David could lose the starting role. In addition, Garrard missed all of last season with a back injury and he has hadKrohns disease his entire career. While we can't predict injuries it is often a wise choice to avoid players who consistently find themselves sidelined due to injury year after year. With a new offense to learn, returning to action after missing a year and all the competition at the position it is probably a good idea to stay clear of Miami's quarterbacks.
Update(8/22): It looks like Garrard will be cut before the season begins. David may have been the best option for Miami up until the knee injury, but with a bum knee and a $2.75 million salary it is going to be tough for Miami to keep him on the roster.
QB Matt Moore, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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The quarterback position in Miami is up for grabs this season. Last year Moore played well but I don't know that his performance was enough to earn him the starting position this season. Matt will be battling David Garrard a former pro bowler and rookie Ryan Tannehill for the starting position. Early indications point to Garrard leading the way but this could change at any moment. One bad day on the practice field or a bad series in an exhibition game could put an end to any chance either of these quarterbacks have at starting. At this point it's too much of a gamble to draft Moore as we just don't know if he will be the starter come week one. Should Moore happen to win the starting position he'll need to produce wins in order to stay on the field. A few bad weeks early in the season and Moore could find himself watching a few games from the sideline. There are just too many questions surrounding the quarterback position in Miami this season for anyone to comfortably draft one of their quarterbacks.
Update (8/22): Moore did nothing during OTAs and little during pre-season and as a result he has lost his starting job in Miami. At this point Miami has to keep him on the roster because Garrard is sidelined with a knee injury. If the Dolphins keep both Moore and Garrard (not expected) then we could see Moore cut once David returns.
QB Ryan Tannehill, --- - Gamble (high risk)
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The Dolphins didn't take Ryan Tannehill with the 8th overall pick in the 2012 draft to pay him big bucks while watching from the sideline. Tannehill does have a leg up on incumbant Matt Moore when it comes to Mike Sherman's playbook, but that doesn't mean he's ready to start. Tannehill has to learn how to read NFL defenses and gain some appreciation for the speed of the game at this level. Tannehill may not be Miami's starting quarterback week one, but it wouldn't surprise us to see him starting at some point this season. To begin the season Tannehill will likely be third on the depth chart behind Garrard and Moore. If you're in a deep league or keeper league then selecting Tannehill in the late rounds might be a good idea. This could give you a leg up on the competition next season. If you happen to be in a larger league then late round picks can sometimes be useful for future seasons.
Update (8/22): Matt Moore did nothing to impress the Dolphins coaching staff while Tannehill did everything to impress, which in turn has resulted in Ryan being named the Dolphins' starter week 1. In a dynasty league Ryan may hold some long term value, but in standard redraft leagues he holds little value. With just 19 games under center in his college career, transitioning to the big league won't be easy for him.
RB Lamar Miller, --- - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
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At this point the third running back position is up for grabs between Clay, Slaton and the rookie from "the U". Miller's style of play is similar to Reggie Bush, so he could fit in well with Miami's west coast offense. Many believe the Dolphins got a great deal when they drafted Miller with the second pick in the fourth round. The drawback with Miller is his place on the depth chart. Unless something drastically changes, it is likely Miller won't see enough playing time to be fantasy worthy. Then again, if Daniel Thomas struggles during camp...
RB Reggie Bush, --- - Solid/Safe Pick
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If the Dolphins are going to win games this season they'll need to do so on the shoulders of Reggie Bush. Bush is a big time play maker who can break a game wide open. When he does, fantasy owners love having Reggie on their team. The problem is when Bush doesn't break one, his numbers are not the greatest and fantasy teams suffer. If you're looking for a second back with potential to be a number one then Bush is a good selection. Just keep in mind he's likely to have a few games where he only scores 5 or 6 points.
RB Steve Slaton, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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Slaton signed a one year deal with the Dolphins this off season. In order for Slaton to even make the team, he'll need to really impress the coaches in camp and during preseason games. Even if he does make the team, he'll be Miami's fourth back getting little to no playing time.
RB Daniel Thomas, --- - Fantasy Handcuff
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Last season was Thomas' first year in the NFL. In 13 games Daniel carried the ball 165 times for 581 yards with no rushing touchdowns. This year we don't expect much of an improvement in Thomas' numbers. Daniel will likely spend most of his time playing behind Bush in the Dolphins' west coast offense. When on the field with Bush, Thomas will likely be held in to block. If you're a Reggie Bush owner you have to grab Thomas at some point in the draft. If Bush goes down, Thomas will be the primary back in Miami.
WR Roberto Wallace, TEN - Deep-league Only
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Undrafted out of San Diego State in 2010, Wallace's NFL career to date has largely been about special teams. Seeing as there is little special about the Dolphins wide receivers, the 6-foot-4, 222-pounder could be line for more than just chasing down returners. Wallace caught four passes in the preseason opener and actually started the Dolphins second game with Brian Hartline sidelined with a calf injury. Like the rest of the Dolphins receivers besides Davone Bess in PPR, Wallace is not draftable as anything more than total flyer in deep, deep leagues even if he remains the starter. Add the raw talent to the long list of training camp stories worth monitoring this offseason.
WR Davone Bess, --- - Quality Backup
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When Miami sent pro bowl receiver Brandon Marshall to Chicago, they left a large gap in their receiving corp. Marshall had 81 receptions for 1,214 yards with 6 touchdowns. Combining the stats for Bess and Hartline last season the two had 85 receptions for 1,086 yards with 4 touchdowns. Bess and Hartline have some big shoes to fill if the Dolphins passing game is going to be successful this season. Someone has to pick up the receptions, yards and touchdowns Marshall had last season. Bess and Hartline will be the beneficiaries, but which receiver takes the lead role is up in the air. We could see Bess one week and Hartline the next. Bess should post descent numbers good enough to make him a quality backup in most fantasy leagues.
WR Brian Hartline, --- - Quality Backup
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Last season Hartline finished the season as the Dolphins' second best reveiver with 35 receptions for 549 yards. This year Hartline will need to double his output in order to make up for the loss of Brandon Marshall. Doubling his output may sound like a stretch, but with Marshall no longer on the field someone has to pick up his receptions. This year we should see Hartline and Bess as the beneficiaries of Marshall's trade to Chicago. The two should post similar numbers good enough to be drafted as a backup receiver on most fantasy teams.
WR Chad Johnson, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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If Chad Johnson (Ochocinco whatever he's going by these days) had anything left in the tank, he sure didn't show it last season. While playing for the Patriots in 2001 Chad caught just 15 passes in 15 games, totalling 276 with just a single touchdown. At one point during the season it was rumored the Patriots offense was too complex for Chad, thus causing him to produce less than stellar numbers. This year Chad will be asked to learn yet another offense; one which will require him to run precise routes and beat opposing defenders off the line. While it is possible Chad could have a good season, indicators point to a mediocre year at best. Unless something changes between now and week 1 it is best to stay away from Chad this year.
UPDATE (8-12): The Dolphins released Chad Johnson one day after the veteran receiver was arrested in a domestic battery incident involving his wife, the Associated Press reported...and that ends that. There was a hint of interest in Johnson largely because the Dolphins' other options are just so not good, but now he's out and Miami goes looking elsewhere for a veteran option. Don't bother wasting a pick on Johnson hoping some other team takes a flyer. They won't, not an NFL team anyway. (BS)
WR Legedu Naanee, --- - Deep-league Only
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After spending last year in Carolina, Naanee signed a one year deal with the Dolphins this off season. Naanee has the potential to be a quality receiver in the NFL, but he never seems to play up to that potential. At times we see flashes of what could be, but the flash fizzles as quick as they come and we're back to wondering what could be. Until we see some quality starts for a number of weeks, it is best to only add Naanee to your roster if you're in a deep league.
TE Charles Clay, --- - Deep-league Only
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With Bush and Thomas ahead of Clay, there won't be many chances for Charles to post quality fantasy numbers. Last season Clay scored 1 or more fantasy points in just 8 games. Charles had 0 carries last season, getting all of his yards (233) on 16 receptions. Clay found the end zone 3 times in 14 game appearances. Two of Clay's touchdowns came in the final two weeks of the season on 1 yard receptions, his only reception in each game. Clay may be 3rd on the depth chart now, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Miller slide ahead of him some point this season.
TE Michael Egnew, PIT - Not Draft Worthy
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With Fasano ahead of Egnew on the depth chart, it is unlikely we'll see much from Michael. Until we see some steady production from the rookie tight end, we think it is best to leave him undrafted. If you are a Fasano owner, you'll want to keep Egnew on your watch list. Should something happen to Anthony you'll want to grab Michael.
TE Anthony Fasano, --- - Solid/Safe Pick
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Fasano was second on the team to Marshall with 5 touchdown receptions last season. It was obvious in the second half of last season that Miami had made a conscience effort to get Fasano the ball. In the final 8 games of the season Fasano had 22 of his 32 receptions and 4 of his 5 touchdowns. If this trend continues into this season, Fasano could be a top 5 tight end. We're not ready to make that leap yet, but we like what we saw the second half of last season and hope to see more of it this year.
PK Dan Carpenter, --- - Bye Week Fill-in
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Carpenter made over 85% of his field goal attempts last season while going 26 for 26 on extra point attempts. In all Dan scored 113+ points for fantasy owners. One thing I like about Carpenter is that he gets to play 8 games a year in Miami. While the weather in Miami can get bad, it is often sunny and warm. Of course the big question this year will be how well the offense will play when Tannehill takes over under center. If the offense sputters then Carpenter's opportnities may be few and that could be costly for fantasy owners. For this reason it may be best to only grab Carpenter when you need a bye week fill-in.
Miami - Bye Week Fill-in
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Miami's defense didn't do a good job forcing opposing offenses to turn the ball over last year. In 16 games Miami forced just 19 turn overs. This will likely be a point of focus for the Dolphins defense this season, but until we see some improvement it's probably best to find a defense which could score you more points.