2012 Team Outlook: Buffalo
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, --- - Quality Backup
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Ryan Fitzpatrick can be useful as a fill-in starter for bye weeks or in a pinch if your QB1 is injured, but he shouldn't be considered a regular starter. He began the 2011 season red hot with nine passing touchdowns coming in Buffalo's first three games. After that, he was hit or miss and unreliable during the fantasy playoff season. This inconsistent production limits his upside and should push him into the later rounds. Fitzpatrick is a known commodity now, which should limit many owners from having the opinion he has some untapped potential. Consider him a low-risk, low-end QB2 in 12-team leagues.
Update (8/12): The Bills' offense will likely transition to more spread looks this season which would give Fitzpatrick's more opportunities to throw it around.
QB Tarvaris Jackson, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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The Bills seem interested in keeping the pressure on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Jackson has now replaced QB Vince Young, this is still Fitzpatrick's team. Since leaving Minnesota, Jackson had his most productive season in 2011 with the Seattle Seahawks. He had career-high numbers with 3,091 passing yards, 14 TD passes and his 60.2 completion percentage. Unless Fitzpatrick really struggles, Jackson is relegated to being a backup.
QB Vince Young, --- - Low Potential
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When Vince Young and his Texas Longhorns took down USC for the National Championship, the whole world thought he was destined for greatness. Here we are six long years later, Young is on his third team in as many years and now it is the Buffalo Bills who will give him an opportunity to prove himself. Consider Young only penciled in as the No. 2 QB because Ryan Fitzpatrick is not untouchable as the Bills' starter. Young has all of training camp and preseason to earn respect in this new role. Should Fitzpatrick struggle at any point, the media and a good chunk of the fan base will demand to see what Young can do. If Young plays, he has to be on your fantasy radar as a bye week fill-in.
UPDATE (08/27): The Bills have released Young and acquired QB Tarvaris Jackson from the Seattle Seahawks.
RB Tashard Choice, --- - Low Potential
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It wasn't that long ago that Tashard Choice was considered one of the best backup running backs in the league while with the Dallas Cowboys. After being cut by Dallas and a brief stint in Washington, Choice now provides the Bills with game-tested depth. He can contribute on third downs as a receiver out of the backfield and has been reliable running the ball between the tackles (although he lacks top end speed). Choice isn't worth a draft pick in your upcoming fantasy draft. That said, the only way he sees significant playing time is if Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller is seriously injured. Until then, allow Choice to comfortably hold a spot in your league's waiver wire.
RB Fred Jackson, --- - Solid/Safe Pick
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When it was announced that Fred Jackson would be placed on injured reserve last season, he was a Top 5 running back. Through the first 10 games, he averaged 92 rushing yards per game and solid PPR numbers. Despite the late emergence of C.J. Spiller last season, make no mistake, Jackson is Buffalo's lead back. The Bills drafted three offensive linemen this offseason, two of which have a decent shot to begin the year as starters which can only help when he returns. Jackson may be 31 years old, but only he and Dallas' DeMarco Murray had over 150 carries and averaged 5.5 yards per carry last season. Due to his injury, Jackson is a great value selection if he slips into the fifth round.
RB C.J. Spiller, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)
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C.J. Spiller was the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and expectations were very high. They should still be, considering Spiller will only be 25 at the start of season and he's one of the faster backs in the NFL. Once Fred Jackson (the Bills' regular starter) went down for the season before Week 11, Spiller seemed to put it all together. He averaged 105.5 total yards per game in the final six contests of the season to go along with five TDs. Spiller may be Buffalo's No. 2 running back, but he proved last year he can produce when given touches. At his best, Spiller has the natural ability to put up Jamaal Charles-like numbers because of his elite speed. The risk of course is whether or not he will ever be able to fully tap into his talent and potential. A split backfield will hurt his stats, but he could emerge as a serious talent this season.
Update (8/12): The Bills have made it very clear they plan to use Spiller far more often despite of the healthy return of Jackson.
RB Johnny White, --- - Dynasty Only
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This second-year back out of the University of North Carolina did not see much playing time in spite of Fred Jackson being relegated to injured reserve before Week 11 last year. If Buffalo had a ton of confidence in him, they wouldn't have signed (and re-signed) Tashard Choice. This is a make or break year for White, who must show he can pass protect and make the most of the limited opportunities he'll receive as a reserve. Inevitably, a running back ahead of him on the depth chart will need a week off at some point and White will be worth keeping an eye on if he earns some playing time.
WR David Nelson, PIT - Bye Week Fill-in
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In only his second season last year, David Nelson started 13 games and was a weekly contributor to this team's offensive success. Due to his elite height, Nelson is a developing red-zone threat. The Bills receiving corps battled with injuries last year, so it is possible that they will have an open competition for their WR2 and WR3 positions. Nelson has a terrific opportunity to earn that role in 2012, but he will also have to compete with Donald Jones, Brad Smith and rookie T.J. Graham from N.C. State. Buffalo will likely evaluate this situation throughout training camp and preseason, making Nelson a wild card selection late in your fantasy drafts.
Update (8/12): Nelson is dealing with a leg injury but still looks like a safe bet to be the Bills' slot receiver.
WR T.J. Graham, --- - Dynasty Only
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The recurring theme with Buffalo's receiving corps is quantity over quality. If you check out the Bills' official website and look at their roster, they have 11 wide receivers. That number will be whittled down as the Bills shape their final 53-man roster, but it succeeds in displaying that they have an open competition at the position. T.J. Graham's fate is still unclear, but he was not drafted into a favorable situation. A third-round pick out of N.C. State, Graham has the talent and ability to make an impact eventually, the problem is that he must beat out some veterans to earn meaningful playing time. Once he goes through training camp and the preseason, the depth chart will take form and it will be more clear if Graham will make a fantasy impact sooner rather than later.
WR Derek Hagan, --- - Low Potential
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What is often the case in fantasy football is that fans expect someone to step up. The Buffalo Bills would love to have a wide receiver excel in the No. 2 spot behind Steve Johnson, yet that has not been the case. Derek Hagan has a great opportunity to seize that role. With that said, it's going to take a lot to sway public opinion in his favor. It's not enough to do well for a few games in fantasy football, he must succeed consistently enough to persuade fantasy owners to start him over other established stars.
WR Stevie Johnson, --- - Solid/Safe Pick
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2011 validated Steve Johnson's status as a bonafide star after a breakout 2010 performance. Johnson now has back-to-back seasons with at least 76 receptions, 1,000-plus receiving yards and seven touchdowns. When the new season begins, Johnson will only be 26 years old and entering his prime. The Bills' roster is chock full of underachieving wide receivers, leaving little competition to steal away targets throughout the regular season. Regardless, he is the team's premiere receiving threat and will make for a very reliable No. 2 WR on your fantasy squad.
Update (8/12): Johnson had a small setback with his persistent groin injury a week ago, but the team feels the little time he missed was merely a precaution.
WR Donald Jones, --- - Deep-league Only
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Injuries limited Donald Jones' impact on the 2011 season, but he's still a very viable candidate to assume the WR2 spot on the depth chart. While David Nelson appears to be Buffalo's slot receiver, Jones will likely be competing with new rookie receiver T.J. Graham out of N.C. State and some incumbents like Naaman Roosevelt, Marcus Easley and Brad Smith. Jones did manage to accumulate a couple of games with good production (five receptions for 101 yards against New England in Week 5, for example) but as it currently stands, the No. 2 WR on this team is still undefined. For now, Jones has the inside track. Fantasy owners should keep in mind this offense can really only support one productive fantasy receiver (Steve Johnson); even if Jones is the starter, his fantasy potential is very low.
Update (8/12): Consider Jones the tentative No. 2 receiver to start alongside Johnson.
WR Brad Smith, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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There are certain recognizable players in the NFL who have done enough in auxillary roles to make a name for themselves. Brad Smith is certainly one of those guys. Throughout his career, he's been a wildcat QB, a kick returner and a wide receiver. Unfortunately, that kind of role player really has no business being on your fantasy squad.
TE Lee Smith, --- - Not Draft Worthy
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With a whopping four receptions for 11 yards last season, Lee Smith won't be much of a fantasy commodity. Head coach Chan Gailey is known for not utilizing his tight ends much and Smith is an in-line blocking specialist that is almost assured to have very receptions on the year. The Bills are slowly improving on offense (J.P. Losman, anybody?), but that does not mean they have the firepower to support a fantasy viable TE2. To make matters worse, Buffalo really should have considered adding a tight end in the 2012 NFL Draft to come in and compete with this less-than-stellar group. Smith finished the year on injured reserve after an ankle injury abrupty ended his season in December and he'll need to re-establish himself in only his second year in the league.
TE Scott Chandler, --- - Bye Week Fill-in
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Logic flew out the window when Scott Chandler scored his fourth touchdown only three weeks into the young 2011 season. In fact, prior to last year, Chandler only had one reception in his career. This anonymity likely worked in his favor with defenses draped all over wide receiver Steve Johnson; Chandler was free to work the red zone and indeed he did with six touchdowns last year. Unfortunately, Chandler was wildly inconsistent, scoring fewer than six fantasy points in nine of his 14 games in standard scoring leagues. Take a pass on Chandler during your fantasy draft and at best, consider him as a bye-week replacement in deep leagues. Unless your league requires two TEs, he shouldn't be on your radar until he proves to be more reliable.
PK Rian Lindell, --- - Quality Backup
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On February 3, Buffalo re-signed Rian Lindell to a four-year, $11 million dollar contract. Not a bad way to make a living, right? The larger point being that although the Bills currenly have two kickers on the roster, Lindell is basically a shoe-in to be the team's No. 1 kicker. This is likely great news for Lindell, considering he missed half the 2011 season because of injuries. In eight contests, Lindell scored 8.0 points per game, 13th best in the NFL last year. Assuming that Buffalo can continue to improve on offense, Lindell has a chance to become a fantasy starter in 12-team leagues.
Buffalo - Gamble (high risk)
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Buffalo has a bit of a polarizing fantasy defense. If your league's scoring settings are focused on big plays like interceptions, forced fumbles, and defensive touchdowns, then the Bills are an above-average group. This is because the Bills play an aggressive style of defense that looks to create turnovers. The flip side to that is this team gave up a ton of yards and points. Buffalo allowed 434 points last season, third-most in the NFL. They also ranked amongst the bottom five in rushing yards allowed. The Bills wisely signed free agent pass-rushing talent Mario Williams, but that's still just one piece to an evolving defense that should only be considered a backup option in most fantasy formats.