Sophomore Outlook
In the college game, coaches always say the best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores. In many cases the same thing is true in the NFL. Last year's NFL campaign seemed to be full of rookies making an impact. And that made a big difference in every fantasy football league in the nation. So which players will break out during their sophomore seasons and which will be in for the dreaded sophomore slump?
QB Andy Dalton, PHI
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Despite not being drafted in the first round, Dalton played like a first round QB leading the Bengals to the playoffs in his first season. Dalton threw for over 3300 yards and 20 touchdowns in his rookie season, building a great rapport with fellow rookie AJ Green. As long as the 2 of them are playing together, Dalton should be able to put up solid numbers and the Bengals should be competitive. Dalton should be ranked between 12-15 for QBs.
QB Blaine Gabbert, ---
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Gabbert had a very unspectacular rookie season and despite the additions of rookie Justin Blackmon and veteran Lee Evans, I don't see Gabbert being a viable fantasy option this season. At best he can be a bye week fill in depending on the match-up, but that might even be a stretch. Better yet, he might be worth stashing in keeper leagues.
QB Jake Locker, ---
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Locker has tons of upside, but at this point in the off season there are many question marks surrounding him. He is in a battle with veteran Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. There is uncertainty with the receiver position and we can't say for sure which Chris Johnson we will see in 2012. Locker has a promising future, but I don't see him being a fantasy option this season. His real value might be in a keeper league.
QB Cam Newton, ---
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Newton had one of the most amazing fantasy seasons a rookie ever had -- passing for over 4000 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for over 700 yards and a whopping 14 rushing touchdowns. While I won't be surprised if he surpasses the 4000 yard mark and increases his touchdown passes, I would be surprised if he rushes for 14 touchdowns again this season. Look for the Panthers to try and limit their franchise QB wear and tear by taking away some of those goal line carries he ran so well to score many of his touchdowns. All that to say, Newton should still be considered a top 5 or 6 fantasy QB, right up there with the likes of Rogers, Brees and Brady to name a few.
QB Christian Ponder, ---
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Ponder didn't have a great rookie season like some of the other QBs, playing in only parts of 11 games, passing for 1853 yards while throwing for only 13 touchdowns as well as 13 interceptions. I would stay away from drafting Ponder, even in keeper leagues. The Vikings have a questionable OL, they are weak at WR. Plenty of other QBs to draft ahead of Ponder.
RB Roy Helu, ---
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Helu had an up and down rookie season as he tried to get used to the pounding NFL running backs take. He dressed for 15 games and rushed for 640 yards, despite not being used very much in many games. He did catch 49 passes, proving his value as a receiver out of the backfield. Helu isn't a very big back so look for the Redskins to try and pair him with another back so as to not let him get beaten down by season's end. Helu's value increases in PPR leagues. Look to draft him in the mid rounds as he should have no problem gaining over 1000 total yards.
RB Mark Ingram, ---
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Ingram had a solid start to his rookie year before having his season shut down after 10 games. In terms of fantasy, Ingram's biggest issue is that he will be splitting his carries with at least 2 other running backs, making him tough to start on a week to week basis as long as all the running backs are healthy. Best bet is probably to let someone else draft him.
RB Mikel Leshoure, ---
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Leshoure missed his entire rookie season with an ankle injury. He should be healthy for the start of this season, but the Lions expect him to be suspended for 2 games due to failed drug tests in the off season. He will also be fighting for carries with the other Lions running backs (two often injured players, Jahvid Best and Kevin Smith). Draft with caution.
RB DeMarco Murray, ---
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When the Cowboys drafted Murray in the 3rd round last year they didn't expect him to pay off so quickly. After not getting much run in the first 4 weeks, he rushed for over 850 yards in the next 9 games until suffering an ankle injury that ended his season. Murray looks like he will be all ready for the start of the 2012 season and will go into camp as the #1 running back in the Cowboys' high octane offense. Follow his injury rehab; if he doesn't suffer any setbacks, he should be in line for a very good season gaining well over 1000 yards as well as catching passes. He should be in line to be a top 15 fantasy back.
RB Stevan Ridley, ---
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Ridley played in 14 games as a rookie, but his carries were inconsistent and he finished with only 441 yards and 1 touchdown while splitting the backup carries with Danny Woodhead. Ridley will get a shot to compete for the lead back in New England most likely vs. the other 2nd year man, Shane Vereen. If either Ridley or Vereen grab the lead back role, they have a chance to put up similar numbers to what the "law firm" put up the last 2 seasons. More likely, the Patriots will go with the hot hand, so don't be surprised if you see Ridley split carries with Vereen and veterans Danny Woodhead and Joseph Addai (if he makes the final roster), making it very hard for Ridley to be a regular fantasy contributor. Follow the battle for the lead back spot with the Patriots; if Ridley is the winner he could be good for a mid round pick.
RB Shane Vereen, ---
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Despite missing 11 games of his rookie season due to various injuries, Vereen will get a shot to compete for the lead back in New England most likely vs. the other 2nd year man, Steven Ridley. If either Vereen or Ridley grab the lead back role, they have a chance to put up similar numbers to what the "law firm" put up the last 2 seasons. More likely, the Patriots will go with the hot hand, so don't be surprised if you see Vereen split carries with Ridley and veterans Danny Woodhead and Joseph Addai (if he makes the final roster), making it very hard for Vereen to be a regular fantasy contributor. Follow the battle for the lead back spot with the Patriots and if Vereen is the winner, he could be good for a mid round pick.
RB Ryan Williams, ---
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Williams missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury, but looks like he will be ready to for training camp. He will battle often injured incumbent Beanie Wells who has yet to get back to 100% healthy. If Williams is indeed healthy when the season starts, don't be surprised if he ends up becoming the starter. Big upside with Williams, but will come down to health, his and Wells.
WR Jon Baldwin, ---
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Baldwin had a very weak rookie season despite playing on a team in desperate need of help at the receiver spot. The Chiefs didn't add any receivers in the off season, so there will be plenty of chances for Baldwin to make some noise in the KC passing game. He has so far looked much better in OTAs and seems to have a better feel for the playbook. Look for improved numbers from Baldwin this year. Follow him through the summer, he might be a good sleeper pick in the mid to late rounds.
WR Randall Cobb, ---
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At this point in his career Cobb is mostly a return guy and part time receiver. The Packers just have too many weapons ahead of Cobb on the depth chart and he really isnt worth drafting. He is someone who might be worthy of stashing away if you're in a keeper league (or to keep an eye on during the season if there are injuries to the Packers receivers).
WR A.J. Green, ---
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Green had a great rookie season gaining over 1000 yards on 65 catches, including 7 touchdowns playing in 15 games. Green and fellow rookie QB Andy Dalton look like they will be one of the better combos for years to come. Green should be considered a top 12 fantasy receiver in any format and should be drafted as such.
WR Julio Jones, ---
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The Falcons traded up in the 2011 draft to get Julio Jones, hoping he would be the spark to put the Falcons offense over the top. Despite not having a full off season to get used to the Falcons playbook (and only playing in parts of 13 games), Jones was explosive and had a very solid rookie year catching 54 passes for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns. With a full off season to work with his fellow Falcons, look for him to improve on those numbers. Depending on what scoring system you are in, Jones should be drafted anywhere from around 10 to 18.
WR Greg Little, ---
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Being the #1 receiver isn't always what it's cracked up to be. Despite being a rookie, Little was the #1 wide out in Cleveland, and even though he played in all 16 games, he only caught 61 passes for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Browns hope they have improved their offense by spending two #1 picks on offensive players, RB Trent Richardson and QB Brandon Weeden. While I don't see Little turning into a stud, look for him to improve on his rookie numbers. Could be a surprise pick, probably closer to the end of the draft, but could sneak into to the mid rounds
WR Torrey Smith, ---
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Smith did a good job as the deep threat in the Ravens' office during his rookie year, as he caught 50 passes for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns. Smith appears to be fully healed from his off season surgery and will once again be the Ravens' deep threat. He makes for an interesting mid round pick
WR Titus Young, ---
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Young had an up and down rookie season and will look to build on it in 2012. Young will try and unseat veteran Nate Burleson and hold off rookie Ryan Broyles and become the #2 WR in the Lions' offense. This is a battle to follow through the summer and training camp and if Young comes out on top of the battle, he could be a good value pick in the mid to late rounds. Either way he has very good upside in a keeper league.