2012 PPR Preview
WR Brandon Marshall, ---
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Going Up - Marshall's production took a hit during his tenure in Miami. Even as wandering hearts veer towards younger, sexier receivers in your mocks, there are still a few more talented receivers in the league. Sure, Marshall had three seasons with 100+ catches when he was in Denver with Jay Cutler, but it wouldn't mean much if the Bears were bringing back Mike Martz. Fortunately, they aren't, and the promotion of Mike Tice means protecting Jay Cutler is finally going to be a priority. A lot less 7 step drops, a lot more quick passes. Expect Marshall to be top 5 in targets week in and week out, and finish 2012 with 95+ receptions.
WR Michael Crabtree, ---
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Going Up - Now entering his 4th season in the NFL, it seems pretty clear Crabtree isn't the game changing downfield threat the Niners were hoping for when he fell in their laps in 09'. He did take a nice step forward in his third year, catching 72 passes for 874 yards. This seems like a situation where real competition at the reciever position is a good thing. With Moss and Manningham stretching the field, Crabtree could easily settle into an impressive short yardage receiver with excellent run after-catch ability. His skill set seems better suited to his new role, and 85 receptions seems quite reasonable.
WR Reggie Wayne, ---
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Going Up - I know I know. He's 34, and the Colts are going to be bad. Still, this is a guy who's played in all 16 games for 10 straight seasons. That kind of durability alone has a lot of value. Wayne can still play, and even in an abysmal situation last year he managed 75 catches and 960 yards. Andrew Luck is going to have to throw to someone and Wayne is the guy that knows NFL defenses, knows how to get open, and can be an invaluable resource for a young quarterback. Wayne will slip down the draft board this year, but could easily go back up to 90+ receptions.
WR Titus Young, ---
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Going Up - Everyone knows what Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson accomplished, but for the Lions passing game to continue to grow, another receiver is going to have to emerge. In the second half of 2011 Young started to become that receiver. Young caught 29 of his 48 receptions, and 5 of his 6 touchdowns. On a potent offense Young seems like a high potential flex player or WR3, who could easily climb into the 70 catch range if he can steal some more playing time away from aging Nate Burleson.
WR Greg Little, ---
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Going Up - There wasn't much to be excited about with the Browns' passing game in 2011, but Little was the lone bright spot. Emerging as their top receiving threat with 61 catches, Little showed some of the physical gifts that led to his selection in the second round. The Browns are counting on Little to be the #1 target for new quarterback Brandon Weeden, who has the arm to make tough throws downfield that McCoy could not. Expect Little to end the year with 80 catches, 1000+ yards, and a WR3 spot on quite a few 2012 championship teams.
WR Miles Austin, ---
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Going Up - With all the talk about Dez Bryant and his much publicized push to supplant Austin as the team's #1 wide out, it does very little to change Austin's value (or his upside). Another situation where there is value to be found when the hype fades, Austin is still in a fantastic position should he end up the team's #2 in a world where Bryant is demanding double coverage. Miles is healthy, and has no competition for playing time. If he can stay on the field he should be good for 75+ catches, 1000+ yards and 8-10 TD's. Not bad for a guy who could slip to the 5th or 6th round.
TE Antonio Gates, ---
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Going Up - Plagued by injuries the last 2 years, owners won't be fighting for the opportunity to draft Gates early. But with the high risk can also come high rewards. If you believe that Phil Rivers has the talent to bounce back from a disappointing 2011 then he's going to need to lean heavily on his favorite target now that Vincent Jackson landed in Tampa Bay. Gates lost weight in the offseason and is doing all the right things to finish his career in dynamic fashion. When healthy, Gates is still one of the most feared TEs in the game. I think he'll play the whole year, and in the process amass 80+ catches, 900+ yards, and double digit touchdowns.
RB Matt Forte, ---
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Going Down - I hate to jump on the Anti-Forte bandwagon. The guy has been everything from "serviceable" to "great" for the last 4 seasons in PPR formats; Often undervalued and overlooked. Unfortunately, he's now coming off an injury, is unhappy with his contract, and twice has expressed an interest in being a power running team. To that end, they added Michael Bush. Bush can handle a full share of carries, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't cut substantially into Forte's production. He'll still have a role in the passing game and carries between the 20s, but (purely on the basis of opportunity alone) I see his reception total dropping into the 40 range with very little chance of having the same contributions in other categories.
TE Tony Gonzalez, ---
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Going Down - It seems like people have been predicting when father time will come for Tony Gonzalez for years now. Gonzo showed he still had a lot left in the tank in 2011, dramatically improving on his 2010 numbers. Truth be told, Gonzalez will probably have another solid year as a player, but Julio Jones managed 959 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 54 receptions. That kind of production demands more touches, and those touches have to come at someone's expense. From a fantasy standpoint, I can't see the future hall of famer making the same impact in 2012, and should see 10-15 catches and 200 yards fall off last year's line.
WR Steve Smith, ---
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Going Down - Last year's 79 catches were his most since 2008. There's going to be a lot of Cam Newton owners counting on another big year from Smith; I won't be among them. Smith slowed way down in the second half of 2011, catching just 33 balls for 476 yards and 3 touchdowns. Respectable numbers, but nothing demanding serious attention in the higher rounds of the draft where he's going. Smith is 33, an age where decline is imminent, and the Panthers have done very little to add other dymanic weapons around him in the offseason. It's fun to watch him play the game, but I still see his totals slipping back to the 65 catch and 1000 yard range.