Week 4 mailbag - What's the deal with those starry QBs?

You asked for it, so once again we present the FFToolbox mailbag, Week 4 edition...

All of our Facebook friends noticed that this week we asked everyone for their early season bust of the year candidates. Not surprisingly, Chris Johnson (a.k.a. CJ0K) ran away with the honors; I stopped counting once his vote tally starting veering toward 50 percent of the entire ballots cast. Up next, Aaron Rodgers and by a comfortable margin over other struggling passers like Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Michael Vick and Jay Cutler.

All members of the preseason top 5 ( Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Newton, Stafford) received mention directly or as part of a generic "those star quarterbacks suck" -esque post. Many a question asked on Twitter or via email also raised concerns about these five suppossed stalwarts. Hey, as someone who suggested it was more than fine for owners to draft those first three guys early because of so much pre-draft uncertainty at running back, I feel your pain. Now the question is whether ache turns to throbbing or subsides courtesy of a touchdown pass or four this week.

First off, sure, the 0-3 Saints are struggling, but through three weeks, Brees ranks fourth among QBs and has produced at least 19 fantasy points per game. He gets a pass, at least from those of us who don't say "who dat" on a regular basis.

In the case of Rodgers - 22nd among QBs to date - , from what I can tell it's been all about the matchup. Well, that and as Mark Deming pointed out on Thursday's FFToolbox podcast, not having a healthy Greg Jennings; not only has Rodgers been without his main weapon, but Jordy Nelson is better suited as the complementary target, not an opposing secondary's main focus.

Green Bay's first three opponents (San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle) all rank among top 13 pass defenses (based on yards allowed). Their next five opponents, starting with New Orleans this week, do not. Start Rodgers with confidence. If you feel another owner is shaky about owning him (or any of the GB guys for that matter), pounce, pounce, pounce.

(One can make a similar argument for Brady; last two games went against Cardinals (9th) and Ravens with Hernandez out for parts or all of the losses)
As for Newton and Stafford, there are more reasons to be concerned, but not reasons to dump.

Though Newton had a monster Week 2 performance against the Saints, he combined for only 21 points the other two weeks. Clearly, defenses have adjusted to his methods after his hot start last year - passing numbers were on the decline even over the second half of last season - so Newton and the Panthers coaching staff must adjust. However, they will have to do so over the next five weeks against Atlanta, Seattle, Dallas and Chicago with a bye week thrown in.

Stafford also faces a tough slate of games, starting with the Vikings (8th) this week. In each of his opening three games, the Lions QB has thrown only one touchdown pass. Last season combined he had just four such games.

Should you be concerned about these two guys? Yeah, a little. Enough to trade them? Unless it lands me another top 10 passer (RG3, Ryan, Romo, etc), no. We know these guys can get it done and at a high level. A high enough level to win fantasy titles and that is the key. While at other positions it can be hard to sit through a slumping player's struggles, you can at QB since almost any of the top 20 or so can have a strong, matchup-dependant week. In other words, rather than take 75 cents on the dollar for Newton or Stafford, beef up your QB2 and if needed for peace of mind, sit the stars for a week. With that said, Deming projects a major week for Newton, while Stafford has a favorable matchup should he start. So, there's that. Now, the mailbag...

From @ThaNotoriousBJG... I think after that game, FF owners should sell Jammal Charles high. Thoughts?

Assuming you would get a running back in return, the question is sell high for whom? As a Charles owner, I saw two things in his monster performance against the Saints that removed any lingering doubts after his MIA week 2 outing: speed, notably on the 91-yard score, and durability. Guy touched the ball 39 times, unreal!!! That workload isn't sustainable and the Chiefs had better correct themselves in that area before they wreck themselves by running Charles into the ground, but the positives outweigh the negatives for sure. The upcoming schedule is less than ideal (SD, Bal, TB), but Peyton Hillis is likely out this week so that means more Charles. Unless trading means adding Arian Foster, Ray Rice, another top-7 back or a stud elsewhere, I say hold on and let Charles do his thing for your roster.

From @Noobito... is Kevin Smith worth keeping on the bench?

He certainly isn't worth keeping in your starting lineup, much to the chagrin of our newsman and like Smith, a Central Florida alum. While understanding the early season appeal, my preseason advice was to pass on Smith because either injury or Mikel Leshoure would take him out. Obviously, it was the latter as Smith even fell behind Joique Bell in last week's plan of attack. If you're a Leshoure owner and have room for a handcuff, hold. Otherwise, he stays on your roster as a flyer, but nothing more.

From @dbnjdno1...who do I start Cam Newton (at Atlanta) or Andy Dalton (at Jacksonville) this week?

Based on three weeks worth of numbers, Dalton would be the guy; he ranks tied for sixth in QB scoring (Newton tied for 12th) and has throw six TDP compared to Newton's two. Then look at Newton's numbers in two games against the Falcons; terrible QB ratings and two TDP versus five interceptions.

And yet...I'd roll with Newton. While I urge folks not to let pride get in the way of their lineup or trade decisions, you just spent a high pick on this guy and he's coming off a bad game. If he's truly a legit stud, expect a bounce back game. Dalton gets major props for his work, but the game is on the road and the Jaguars have allowed only two touchdown passes on the season.

From @dougbarington...Should I start H. Nicks?! Same situation as Wk 2, I benched him and he had monster game with 19 fan pts! Have a crystal ball?

Well Doug, it appears the decision may be made for you now that the Giants have downgraded Nicks' status to "doubtful". Adding to the confusion, New York's game at Philadelphia is on Sunday night. Unless an owner has Ramses Barden or the likes of Jeremy Maclin available to plug in (also factor in the appropriate options from the Monday night teams, Dallas and Chicago), waiting on Nicks appears overly optimistic. For the long haul, Nicks' owners perhaps should hope the Giants sit their star receiver so the injury does not linger deep into the season. Granted, owners sporting an 0-3 record don't care about the long haul since another loss could prove devasting. Same might be said of those owners that wait on Nicks without a viable backup plan.