Week 5: PPR Watch

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Confident - Before you start screaming "fluke," let us remember now that Hartline has had not 1, but 2 huge games already this season -- first landing on everyone's radar in week 2 with 9 catches for 111 yards against the Raiders. He was shutdown in games against the Texans and Jets, but Jonathan Joseph and Darryl Revis (played the first 3 quarters) can do that to anyone. It's too early to say Hartline is this year's Victor Cruz (and Tannehill is no Eli Manning), but being third in targets after 4 weeks means that Hartline should not only be on your roster, but should probably be in your starting lineup in leagues 12 teams or deeper. Cincinnati on the road is a tough matchup, particularly with Leon Hall returning, but the 5 weeks after that are all cake, and the Bengals' numbers are padded a bit by games against Cleveland and Jacksonville. Don't hesitate to use him.

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Confident - Forget sleeper, let's just go all the way with Hixon and move him straight to confident. This is dependent on Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden's status heading into week 5, but both guys missed practice Wednesday; and at this point there seems like a really good chance Hixon is going to be a starter. If he is a starter, you're playing him...simple as that. Eli has been lighting it up this year for fantasy, and Hixon already showed he could get it done in week 4, catching 6 of 11 targets for 114 yards. This week the Giants try to bounce back from a tough loss against a Cleveland secondary that will be missing Joe Haden for the 4th straight week. With Haden out, the Browns have been torched. Only the Redskins allow more fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Play him and feel good about it.

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Caution - Owners who grabbed Heath Miller have to be excited by what they've found so far. Even after the bye week, Miller is still top 10 in fantasy points at his position. While you may be excited to get him back, there are a couple things you definitely want to consider. First and foremost, Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers have been completely ineffective at running the ball, and it has caused them to lean more heavily on the pass. I'm not a big fan of Mendenhall, but it's reasonable to assume that with his return they are going to at least *try* to run the ball more often. Add to that the fact they're playing a fantastic Philly Defense that's been good at stopping everything, and I just don't think I can trust a journeyman player like Miller. He's still only been good for about 9 yards a catch. 5 catches for 45 yards sounds about like the ceiling this week, and I need more upside than that.

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Caution - Ridley is the kind of running back that scares me in PPR formats. I drafted him just about everywhere, expecting the Patriots to refocus on the running game. And they have. Frankly he's been pretty solid so far, and I expect him to continue to be a viable fantasy runner the rest of the year. Unfortunately, he may not be a very consistent one. Only 8 targets through 4 weeks is considerably down from what I had hoped. With Vereen back healthy, Woodhead still hanging around, and Boldin emerging, this backfield is becoming it's usual mess. Of the group, I think Ridley's still the guy to own. He should get 15 carries a game and have some goal line opportunities, but when he doesn't score, you're going to wish you'd played someone else. Denver's defense has been solid this year, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry to running backs and 1 TD. If you have better options, use them.

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Dump Him - I'm as guilty as anyone. The way the Dallas offense looked against the Giants, it was easy to make a case for Ogletree as a worthy lineup addition. I was wrong, others were wrong. Don't keep hurting yourself by keeping this guy on your roster (much less in your lineup). In the three weeks since his breakout game 1, Ogletree is 66th in targets, averaging just 3 catches for 33 yards a game. Ogletree is still owned about 50% of the time in most leagues. You absolutely can't win your league without speculative adds, but you've got to know when to let go. The Dallas offense is a mess, It's time to move on. Dallas doesn't play again until week 6, there are better players to have on your roster.

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Go Get Him - If you're a Mikel LeShoure owner, it's worth opening up a spot on your roster for Joique Bell. Kevin Smith has been reduced to a non factor, and few running backs in the NFL are getting more looks in the passing game. His 16 targets is good for 8th, and the 175 yards he's put up on 12 receptions is good for third. If he keeps this up, Bell could evolve into a spot flex starter in his own right. However should anything happen to LeShoure, Bell would likely be a solid RB1 in a feature roll. Maybe I'm overstating it, but I'd put Bell right there after Ben Tate and Michael Bush as must own handcuffs with the potential to be huge fantasy difference makers. With few teams throwing the ball to running backs with regularity, I truly believe the Detroit running game is going to be very productive for fantasy the rest of the year in PPR. With the Lions on bye, Bell is getting little attention and this would be a good time to snag him.

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Sleeper - With Santonio Holmes out for the year, let the speculation begin on which will be the most viable Jets receiver for fantasy the rest of the way. Honestly, it's probably none of them. I like Stephen Hill a bit when he gets healthy, but for the most part your best bet will be to avoid having anything to do with the Jets passing game. Nevertheless, for deep PPR leagues it is reasonable to think Kerley has a decent shot at fantasy relevance. He's done quite a bit with his 14 targets to this point, catching 10 passes for 197 yards and 2 TDs. At least until Hill gets backs, Schilens will be the "#1", and Kerley will see increased playing time. Ultimately, at only 5'9, his roll as a slot receiver could be a productive one, with the Jets playing from behind a lot and having to pass. I wouldn't play any Jets receiver this week against the Texans, but they have some easier match ups ahead, and Kerley could be useful to fill in on a bye week.