Week 14: PPR Watch
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WR Pierre Garcon, ---
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Confident - Surprise! Baltimore isn't really that great a defense this year. At least for fantasy purposes, they really aren't that scary at all. So after 2 straight weeks of watching Garcon go off, the question isn't whether you should start him against the Ravens, but who should you bench to get him in? Frankly, I'd say just about anyone that's not top 15 at the position. Garcon has come back showing the same sort of juice we saw from him at the beginning of the year, and his 11 targets in week 13 show that he has more than just big play potential. Especially when you consider he saw just 57% (up from 44% in week 12) of the offensive snaps. The Redskins are showing no hesitance to get him the ball in a variety of ways, and as his "full practice participant" status shows, he looks completely healthy to me. Baltimore's been excellent stopping WRs from scoring, but Garcon has a variety of ways to put up points. Play him.
RB Knowshon Moreno, ---
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Confident - If there was ever a week to use the once again relevant Moreno, it is week 14 against the Raiders. Knowshon has dominated the snap count for the Broncos, and been reasonably productive in the process -- 194 total yards, and 8 catches in his first 2 games as the feature back. Everyone remembers what Doug Martin did to Oakland, but he wasn't the only one. Over the past 5 weeks opposing RBs have gashed the Raiders for 755 yards and 8 touchdowns; Far and away the worst of any team in the NFL. I'm not a fan of the Thursday games for fantasy production, but this matchup is too good to pass up, and I'd easily play Moreno over sexier options like Bryce Brown, Matt Forte, and Frank Gore. Knowshon should easily reach 100 total yards, 3-5 receptions, and has a great chance to score. Safe production with big upside in a playoff week? Done deal.
TE Dallas Clark, ---
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Confident - It looks like Josh Freeman is starting to discover the hidden gem of reliability that is Dallas Clark. Rarely have you heard someone reliable referred to as a "gem"? Well, maybe you should hear it more often, because Clark is a quarterback's best friend. With Jackson and WIlliams stretching the field, and Doug Martin making teams fear the run, Tampa has turned into a dynamic offense. TE, WR, RB, it doesn't matter what the position, you want players in a dynamic offense and Clark is both a beneficiary of (and a reason for the mid-season turnaround). Over the past 3 games, Clark is 5th in Fantasy PPG, with 3 TDs, and 20 targets. This week, Tampa gets the Eagles at home. Philly has been vulnerable to the TE, allowing nearly 6 catches and 60 yards a game over the last 5. Clark is a solid option if you don't have an elite TE, and is still available in more than 60% of leagues.
WR Greg Jennings, ---
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Confident - At long last, week 13 saw the return of Greg Jennings. Unfortunately, It wasn't exactly a dazzling performance, just 4 catches for 46 yards on 8 targets. On the positive side though, that 8 targets was good enough to lead the team, and with Jordy Nelson expected to be out this week, he should get at least as many again. The first meeting against the Lions wasn't exactly a shootout, but the two teams did combine for 44 points. The Lions remain a terrible pass defense, allowing the 11th most fantasy PPG to WRs, and the 7th most receptions. If you stashed him this long waiting, it is time to put Jennings in your lineup. He may be tough for Rodgers to find in the endzone, but should get enough work to be a viable WR3 in PPR.
TE Kyle Rudolph, ---
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Caution - I had high hopes for Rudolph this year, owning him in nearly every league (as I did Jimmy Graham the previous year). It hasn't quite worked out the same way, and I've ended up replacing Rudolph everywhere. That said, his 8 touchdowns have a way of making him very tempting, and after a dry spell in the middle of the season, he's back in the top 10 over the past 4 games. Sorry, I just don't care. I don't even care that he had his biggest game in recent memory just two weeks ago against the Bears. I announced him "dead to me" earlier in the year, and I'm not changing from that position now. He's still only had 18 catches and 170 yards in those 4 games, and that is just not a viable PPR TE. His TD against Chicago was in garbage time, and not because he was a force in the game. The Bears have allowed just 4 TDs in 12 games this season overall. I'm not betting my playoff hopes on him catching another one this week.
RB Darren McFadden, ---
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Caution - I know it is crazy to say "wait" on a player that's been out for 4 weeks when it is likely the first round of the playoffs and you've finally gotten him back, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. If you're in the playoffs, you've probably found someone else to fill in over the past 4 weeks. Unless that player was Marcel Reece, I see little reason to rush McFadden back into your lineup. First off, he wasn't that productive before he was injured anyway, and even if the Raiders' line has been better the past few weeks, it is impossible to know what his workload will be. Most importantly, Denver has been one of the league's best teams against the run, allowing only 4 touchdowns all year. Assuming he gets 60% of the snaps, McFadden could contribute catching screen passes if/when the Raiders get behind, but there's just too much risk with too little reward here. Bench McFadden for now, hope he plays well; and if he does, then hopefully you can play him with confidence in week 15.
WR Mike Thomas, ---
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Caution - A popular add this week. Relying on a #2 WR in Detroit is hazardous, and no matter how many times Stafford drops back to pass, the position has been inconsistent at best. Enter Mike Thomas. In his 4th year, Thomas (still only 25) could be a nice fit in this Detroit offense, featuring similar size to a Titus Young and Ryan Broyles, but with more experience and proven ability as a route runner. From a fantasy standpoint, he's a fairly known quantity in PPR, having posted 66 catches with the Jags in 2010-2011. Unfortunately, as a known quantity, he's also not very dynamic. Thomas has shown little big play ability in his career, and despite being on the field for 91% of the snaps, he only had 4 targets. Stafford can't target Megatron 20 times every week, and even with Pettigrew getting more looks there should be more opportunity for Thomas this week. Still, how much more, and are you willing to put your playoff lives at stake on him? I'm not, but he's still worth a pickup and maybe consideration in 14 team+ leagues.