Week 14: Player Upgrades
Player Upgrades is intended for fantasy football diehards. Each week when setting a lineup, a closer analysis is necessary to find out which players are destined for a great performance. Sometimes it is a favorable matchup or it can be as simple as an increased role due to an injury. Very few players are matchup-proof in this game. For every Aaron Rodgers or Ray Rice, there are a dozen players who could potentially be interchangable depending upon a number of factors.
This weekly article isolates your best options for a statistical breakout from Week 1 to Week 17. Let FFToolbox do the homework for you! Instead of scouring the waiver wire and opening up 20 tabs to compare and contrast players, let Player Upgrades be your guide. Each week, we will identify seven players (typically two QBs, two RBs, two WRs and one TE) that you should consider starting and we'll break each player down with some analysis.
QB Josh Freeman, ---
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Since their Week 7 bye, the Philadelphia Eagles' pass defense has been getting abused. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 253 yards and 2.7 TDs per game. This leads us to Josh Freeman and his Tampa Bay Bucs hosting the Eagles in Week 14. Tampa has a long way to go to secure a spot in the postseason, while the Eagles are in a perpetual downward spiral and losers of their last eight games. If there's any game for a quarterback to get back in his groove, it comes against Philly. Back-to-back losses should have the Bucs playing hungry and WR Vincent Jackson's two game streak without finding the endzone is his longest drought of the season. Freeman is a sneaky good start this week.
QB Russell Wilson, ---
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Despite less than stellar yardage numbers, Russell Wilson has been on fire in his last five games by throwing 11 TDs with only one INT. Add another 179 rushing yards in those contests and you've got Wilson quietly locked in as the third-best rookie QB in the NFL behind RG3 and Andrew Luck. The last time Wilson faced Arizona, it was his first ever game and it showed with only 153 passing yards, one TD, one INT, and one FL. This Week 14 meeting is at home and while it's easy to make the argument that the Cards have a stifling defense that should shut Seattle Down, you could have said the same thing about Miami or Chicago, Seattle's previous two opponents on the road. With Sidney Rice and Golden Tate peaking at the right time, this team is hot when it matters.
RB Knowshon Moreno, ---
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Facing the league's worst fantasy defense against RBs gives Knowshon Moreno a great opportunity to carry some teams to an opening round fantasy playoffs victory. Are his numbers exciting? Not really. Has he underachieved throughout his career? Sure. We're not talking about history, instead we are focusing on matchup potential. Oakland has allowed RBs to score eight TDs over their last five games. Considering that Peyton Manning should have little trouble jumping out to an early lead against the Raiders, that means there should be plenty of garbage time work for Moreno. He is available in half of all ESPN leagues and 20 percent at MyFantasyLeague.com leagues. Moreno's eight receptions for 40 yards over the last two weeks only add to his value in PPR leagues.
RB DeMarco Murray, ---
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It may seem like a foregone conclusion for some, but DeMarco Murray was only started in less than a third of most fantasy leagues last week across major sites like ESPN and MyFantasyLeague. This message is dedicated to the two-thirds who were skeptical of him. Murray travels to Cincinnati this week and the Bengals' run defense has ranked near the bottom of the NFL for most of the season. Disregard last week's hiccup when San Diego rushed only nine times for 26 yards against the Bengals. Dallas fed Murray heartily in his return with 29 touches. The lesson here is that a well-rested Murray can be dominant since the Cowboys matched a season-high 38 points scored last week with him back in the starting lineup.
WR Pierre Garcon, ---
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A healthy Pierre Garcon is far and away the Washington Redskins' best receiving threat. In his last two games, he has caught 12 passes for 192 yards and two TDs. Those are WR1-type numbers from a guy who should be starting in 100-percent of leagues. Even though he has a fairly solid matchup upcoming against the Baltimore Ravens, Garcon's 18 targets in his last two games rank him among the Top 20 at his position. So while he is no Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall, his presence as a potential WR3/flex should be huge. As long as Robert Griffin is force-feeding him the ball and giving him nearly triple the number of targets compared to the next Redskins receiver, Garcon is certainly a Player Upgrade.
WR Chris Givens, ---
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Given the absence of Danny Amendola, Sam Bradford's passes have had to go somewhere. That somewhere has been rookie Chris Givens out of Wake Forest. In his last two matchups, Givens has caught 16 balls for 207 yards and one score. St. Louis certainly doesn't have a dominant passing offense, but Givens is their go-to guy right now. His 21 targets over that same span rank him ninth in the NFL at his position and 14 of those came just last week. The Rams travel to Buffalo in Week 14 and receivers have very reliably put up good numbers against them. Givens is sparsely owned in most fantasy leagues and should at least be on someone's bench at a minimum. Even if Amendola manages to play next week, he is at high risk for re-injury, which should severely limit his playing time.
TE Brandon Myers, ---
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You may be wondering, "How can a Top 5 TE in some formats still be so widely available?" It's called lazy fantasy football syndrome. Half your league needs to get their act together. Brandon Myers caught 14 passes for 130 yards and a score last week in a truly Rob Gronkowski-like performance. Those numbers are way, way too much to ignore at this stage of the season and there's no excuse for him to be on the waiver wire even if your two TEs are Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten. He has four TDs in his last five games, and at least five receptions in all but one game since Week 6. Defenses have really focused on taking away Denarius Moore, which has left the middle wide open for Myers to exploit. Add him immediately, because he faces Denver -- the league's third-worst fantasy defense against opposing TEs. Given the hot-and-cold nature of tight end production, don't be afraid to be like Jim Harbaugh and go with the hot hand.