Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega

by Eric McGuire , Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Talladega, as always, will be completely unpredictable. Don't even rack your brain trying to picture the way things will unfold. Go with guys who typically have strong cars and run well there and you did everything you could by choosing the drivers with the best chance to run up front.

Running up front means two things: you have a shot at the win and you have a better chance of avoiding any twenty car pileups. Even the leaders occasionally end up wrecked in the plate events (see Tony Stewart/Kurt Busch Round 1 at Daytona last year), but again, it's all about the probability.

Those of you who follow the trends: Gibbs cars (Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, and Denny Hamlin) have led 212 of the 388 restrictor plate laps driven in the Car of Tomorrow.

1. Kyle Busch, #18 M&M's Toyota, Gibbs Racing

I'm not sure that a guy who has never finished in the top 10 at a track has ever been ranked first going into a race there. However, Busch dominated at Daytona (especially once the tires began to wear), as he led 86 laps and finished 4th. This may be the only thing working against him at Talladega, as handling matters much less on this mammoth 2.66 mile track with 4 racing grooves. In almost every restrictor plate race, he is a contender and should be on your class B roster this week.

2. Tony Stewart, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Gibbs Racing

Stewart was 8th at Talladega (led 38 laps) and was 3rd at Daytona (led 16 laps). He was devastated after the 500 and felt he should have won. He continuously puts himself in position to win, leads a bunch of laps, and has one of the strongest cars in the field. He is the top class A option this week.

3. Jeff Gordon, #24 DuPont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

Gordon has the most plate wins of anyone since 2004 (6) and won both races at Talladega last season (leading just one lap in the fall event). Gordon struggled at Daytona this spring, but last season he also wasn't nearly as strong on the Florida speedway. Part of this largely has to do with the handling characteristics of each track and this team has a much better package for Talladega than they do Daytona.

4. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx Toyota, Gibbs Racing

Last year at Talladega, Hamlin led 48 laps in the spring event before ending up 21st and then led 40 laps in the fall race in the COT before finishing 4th. He won one of the Twin 150's at Daytona and led another 32 laps in the 500 before fading to 17th. He is a great class A option this week.

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr, #88 AMP/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

Earnhardt still has those 5 career wins at Talladega, but all came from 2001 to 2004 -- at one point winning 4 straight. He's still a popular pick with the experts, but the results don't back up that pick. Careful though: results aren't everything; he led 31 laps in the fall before blowing an engine and was also leading in the fall of 2006 on the last lap before Brian Vickers caused a melee that knocked both Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson out of contention.

6. Kurt Busch, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing South

Busch has never won on a plate track, but has the best career average finish at Talladega of any active driver -- making him a class A sleeper this week. He was 3rd at Talladega in the spring, 3rd in the last two Pepsi 400's, and 7th at Talladega in the new COT. He followed that up by pushing Ryan Newman to the win in the Daytona 500 (finishing 2nd) and making himself a favorite to possibly win this weekend despite his recent struggles.

7. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

Johnson was 2nd in both races at Talladega last season, but( like Gordon) he struggled terribly at Daytona. There will be better places to use Johnson this season, although a win could happen this weekend.

8. Ryan Newman, #12 ALLTEL Dodge, Penske Racing South

Newman won the Daytona 500, leading 8 laps in the process. He was also 5th in the COT at Talladega in the fall (leading 10 laps) and was 9th at Talladega in the spring. He's another great class B choice this weekend.

9. Casey Mears, #5 Kellogg's/Carquest Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

Mears looked awesome at Talladega last spring until miscommunication between he and Johnson ended his day early. He followed that up with a 6th place run in the fall race in the COT. Mears should have had a solid finish in the Daytona 500, but a late race miscue left him in the wall and 6 laps down.

10. Reed Sorenson, #41 Target Dodge, Chip Ganassi Racing

Sorenson was 5th in the Daytona 500, 2nd to Dale Jr. in the first Twin 150, and scored a top 10 last fall at Talladega. He's not the first driver people think of when they think of restrictor plate racing, but he's a solid class B choice.

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