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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover
This weekend's race at Dover will be a pivotal event in the Chase for the Championship. Dover is one of two races remaining on the schedule where luck plays a disproportionate role in success (the other being Talladega). The Monster Mile is fast and crowded. A mistake made by someone running in the top 10 can take out fifteen or more cars, and a mistake by someone running 38th can easily involve someone running in the top 5 and contending for the win. I know it's only the second race in the Chase, but a guy like Matt Kenseth doesn't want to get any further back, and a second bad run in a row for Kyle Busch can deal a serious blow to his Championship hopes after dominating this season. For fantasy players, there are few places where the drivers you should take on your roster are so cut and dry. There are drivers who run exceptionally well at Dover without fail, and guys who don't. For example, the drivers I ranked one through four in June all finished in the top 4. The rankings for this week: Busch won this race in the spring after leading 158 laps. He was 5th at Dover in the fall and has 5 top 5's in 7 starts on the Monster Mile (he was 2nd in his first two starts there). He will be good at most of the remaining tracks in the Chase as well, so the tough part will be deciding when to use him. I can't see him having another bad weekend after having such a good season; he won't want to let a season like he has had end with anything other than a championship. Edwards has finished 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd in his last four starts at Dover. There is no better place for him to continue his march towards the title. Biffle looked dominant in the June race, leading 164 laps (the most of anyone) and finishing 3rd. Last season, Biffle was 2nd in the fall at Dover and 6th in the spring. He also had finishes of 5th and 8th at the Monster Mile in 2006, and hasn't finished worse than 13th in his last 8 Dover starts (including a win in 2005). He is coming off a win at New Hampshire, and should be on your class B roster this weekend. Kenseth finished 4th in June, but didn't look like the same guy who led 192 laps in the fall before losing an engine. He also dominated both races at Dover in 2006 (winning one of them) and finished 5th in the spring last year. This team has not raced at a high enough level to contend for the title, but he is a former champion that will put up a fight. Look for him to run well and start digging out of the huge hole he is in. However, Edwards is clearly a better class A choice this weekend. Johnson didn't run well at Dover last season (14th and 15th in two starts), but has 3 wins at Dover in his career and finished 7th in June. There will be better places throughout the Chase to use him, but the momentum he has gained and the strength of this team is tough to overlook. If he's leading with 10 to go on Sunday, don't expect someone else to get by him the way Biffle did at New Hampshire.
We hear it every week. Gordon is due for a win, Gordon is going to break out, Gordon's experience will start to prevail, etc. While I don't think he will contend for the win, he may once again contend for a top 5 as he did in June (finishing 5th). Gordon was 11th last fall and does have 4 career wins at the Monster Mile, but there are much better class A options this weekend.
Truex has been a forgotten man on fantasy NASCAR rosters all season. He won last June at Dover and finished 13th in September. He was a solid 6th in the race earlier this year, and should be a nice class B option. Burton has a win, a 4th, a 12th, a 7th, and an 8th in his last 5 starts at Dover. He won at Bristol earlier this year, but isn't nearly as strong as the other class A drivers mentioned earlier. Hamlin has run much better than his finishes indicate at Dover. He was 4th last June and led 61 laps last September before encountering problems, then crashed in the race earlier this year. He was 9th and 11th in 2006, and is someone worth considering for your class A roster. Stewart has a couple of wins in his career at Dover, and was 9th in the fall last year. He joined the crash brigade back in June, so we're not really sure how good he was. There are better class A choices for sure this weekend, but this time of year he usually steps his game up.
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