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2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Season Preview

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(Hopefully) Final update - February 8, 2009 ----

The Top 35 has changed numerous times since last season ended. Remember, being in the Top 35 means a guaranteed starting spot each week. This is an important element for all fantasy NASCAR players to keep in mind, because a driver that doesn't start the race gets you zero points no matter what league you play in. You may wonder how these changes can happen when the teams are obviously not competing, but in the world of NASCAR it is actually pretty simple. Some teams that were inside the top 35 at the end of last year are no longer competing (i.e. the Earnhardt-Ganassi #15 and #01 and the Bill Davis #22) and some teams have transferred owner points to teams that have full time sponsors (leaving the #28 and #38 teams out in the cold).

Teams now included in the top 35 that were not there at the end of last season include the following: the #98 Yates team of Paul Menard (points from #28 Travis Kvapil), the #96 Hall of Fame and Yates Racing operated team of Bobby Labonte (points from #38 David Gilliland), the #77 Penske Racing South Dodge driven by Sam Hornish (assuming the #22 is out of business for good and not bought by another owner), the #47 of Marcos Ambrose, and the #82 Team Red Bull Toyota driven by Scott Speed (was the #84 piloted by AJ Allmendinger for the majority of last season).

Speaking of AJ Allmendinger, he was slated for a short time to take Elliott Sadler's ride with the newly merged Richard Petty Motorsports team (merger included Petty Enterprises and Gillett-Evernham Motorsports), but the threat of legal action against the team by Sadler left the Cup veteran solidly back in the seat. If there is one way to build a championship team, that is not the way to go, I'm sure of it. Allmendinger instead will drive the #44 team out of the same Petty Motorsports stable, a team which was in the top 35 in owner points for the month of January. Due to point swaps involving Richard Childress' (from the Bobby Ginn team) #33 car driven by Clint Bowyer and Roger Penske's new partnership with Bill Davis (giving Sam Hornish the points from the #22), Allmendinger is out. Allmendinger was in because the points from the #10 team last year transferred to him. Ironically, the #10 team was not in the top 35 at the end of last season either.

Tony Stewart is not in the top 35 in owner points because he will be driving for his brand new team; however, he will be ranked. Stewart will have the benefit of the past Champion's Provisional, which he would be entitled to any weekend he did not qualify since he was the last driver since Jimmie Johnson (already locked in each week) to win the Cup Title. Casey Mears will benefit from the solid work Clint Bowyer put in during 2008, while Bowyer has now inherited owner points from the #01 after Bobby Ginn formed a partnership with Richard Childress.

After Stewart, the all important Past Champion's provisional will go to Terry Labonte and then Bill Elliott. This provisional can be used up to six times.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Johnson enters this season as the reigning three time Champion. The odds may be against a fourth straight crown, but until someone beats this team they are the king of the hill. A word to the wise: don't bet against them if they start 2009 slowly, they are constantly looking toward how they can excel in the final ten race playoff.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Aflac/Subway, Roush Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Edwards' effort in 2009 was tenacious. He led the series in wins (9), top 5's (19), top 10's (27), and average finish (9.5). This team will fight and scrape for every position in 2009 and might finally be able to knock the 48 off the top of the mountain.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&M's, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

I'm not sure anyone really knows what happened to this team in the final third of the season. Consider the fact that he won 8 races (second to Edwards for the season) in the first 22 events and zero in the final 14. One thing is for sure: he is now the top dog at Gibbs Racing with the departure of Stewart, and in the first half of last year he was unbeatable. His move past Jimmie Johnson during the green-white-checkered finish at Chicago may well be a defining moment in his career. Look for this team to right the ship and be a contender each week for a top 5.

4. Greg Biffle, #16 3M, Roush Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Biffle had an excellent season in 2008, finishing in the top 10 in 17 of 36 races. He scored back to back wins at Loudon and Dover during the Chase, and was one of the most consistent drivers all year long on the intermediate tracks that make up the core of the Cup schedule.

5. Matt Kenseth, #17 DeWalt, Roush Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Kenseth is the third Roush driver I'm listing in the top five for the season preview. He finished 11th in points, but this team played catch-up all season after a slow start. During the Chase, they ran strong in several races but did not get the finishes they deserved. The 17 will contend in 2009, and will have a chance to win several more races than drivers who finished above him in the points. He will be looking to break back into the win column in a hurry after being shut out in 2008.

6. Tony Stewart, #14 Office Depot/Old Spice, Stewart-Haas Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

No matter what he's driving, it's really hard to rank Tony Stewart that low. He had one of his worst seasons in 2008, and the reasons for that aren't entirely clear. However, he will be driving to prove something in 2009 and making sure his venture into ownership isn't a failure. Expect him to exhibit the skills that make him one of NASCAR's best on restrictor plates, short tracks, intermediate speedways, and of course the road courses.

7. Jeff Gordon, #24 DuPont, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Gordon is another driver looking to make an impact in 2009. He didn't win during 2008 for the first time since his rookie campaign (despite leading significant portions of races at Daytona, Fontana, and Martinsville). He has dominated and won almost everywhere; expect this team to be on track early and often.

8. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class A]

The 31 team will be stealing the Caterpillar sponsorship from the #22 Bill Davis ride in 2009. Burton won at both Bristol and Charlotte in 2008 (his most wins in a season since 2001). Of the four RCR teams, this one seems to be the one most likely to possibly vault into championship contention, although for once in his career Burton didn't seem as consistent as teammate Kevin Harvick. This team will be one to watch in 2009.

9. Kevin Harvick, #29 Shell/Penzoil, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Harvick was solid but not spectacular at any point during 2008. He scored 19 top 10's, but just 7 top 5's and was never a main contender for a win. The team led some laps, but Harvick has settled into a nice consistent rhythm (much like Jeff Burton) that bodes well for championship contention and bad for fantasy players looking for a guy who wants to win or go home.

10. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx Express, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Hamlin was once again one of the top short track drivers in the Cup Series, winning at Martinsville in the spring and absolutely dominating at Richmond before losing the lead late. He struggled on the speedways for the majority of the season, and the team will need to correct that flaw in 2009.

11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 Mountain Dew Amp Energy, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Earnhardt started last season with a bang, but towards the end was limping toward the finish line. The team didn't seem to get any better after their win via fuel mileage at Michigan in June. There were several races where it looked strong enough to win throughout the year (Talladega, Richmond, Martinsville, Charlotte, Atlanta, etc.), but the 88 couldn't close the deal in the last part of races. This will be something the team will have to work on in '09.

12. Jamie McMurray, #26 Crown Royal, Roush Racing [Yahoo Class B]

McMurray is one of the toughest drivers to rank from a fantasy standpoint. This team turned around almost two full years of negative momentum with a dynamite run in the last six races. Were it not for mechanical trouble in Martinsville, he may have finished the year with six straight top 10's. As it was, he finished third in the last three races (Texas, Phoenix, Homestead) and looked fantastic at Martinsville, Atlanta, and Charlotte. This team could be a front runner in 2009, but I wouldn't bet my life savings yet.

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